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      Assessing the Impact of Electric Vehicle Penetration on Electricity Demand in Riyadh
      Models, Data and Tools

      Assessing the Impact of Electric Vehicle Penetration on Electricity Demand in Riyadh

      Jeyhun Mikayilov, Marie Petitet, Rubal Dua

      This paper aims to assess and estimate the impact of electric vehicle (EV) penetration on annual electricity demand, specifically in Riyadh, the capital city of Saudi Arabia. Such an assessment can yield significant insights for stakeholders, including policymakers, energy planners,…

      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Marie Petitet Marie Petitet
      Rubal Dua Dua, Rubal
      22 January 2024
      The Surge in Riyadh’s Population: Electricity Demand Implications
      Models, Data and Tools

      The Surge in Riyadh’s Population: Electricity Demand Implications

      Jeyhun Mikayilov, Ryan Alyamani

      The city of Riyadh, the capital and most populous city of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is undergoing a makeover to become a global metropolis. Saudi Vision 2030 announced a wide range of projects in the city, placing it on…

      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Ryan Alyamani Alyamani, Ryan
      20 September 2023
      Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

      Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

      Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition…

      Anwar Gasim Gasim, Anwar
      Lester C. Hunt Hunt, Lester C.
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      14 September 2023
      Humidity Adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days in Saudi Arabia
      Models, Data and Tools

      Humidity Adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days in Saudi Arabia

      Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov

      This data insight calculates the humidity-adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days for Saudi Arabia. This dataset can be used by researchers who model residential electricity demand, energy efficiency studies, and policymakers to base their potential policy scenarios on weather conditions.

      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      19 July 2023
      Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia
      Models, Data and Tools

      Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia

      Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary

      This paper utilizes a structural time series approach to model Saudi Arabia’s regional electricity demand, capturing undetected forces of variability in the data-generating process that include improvements in technology, energy-saving behavior, and other underlying trends that are excluded under conventional…

      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      05 June 2023
      Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?
      Models, Data and Tools

      Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?

      Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary

      One of the key benefits of understanding regional electricity consumption and its response to policy changes is enhancing the decision-making process. In Saudi Arabia, energy policies are set at the national level, and assessing their impacts at the regional level…

      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      25 June 2023
      Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach
      Models, Data and Tools

      Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

      Abdulelah Darandary, Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

      As a party to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees and keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Saudi Arabia has submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC).…

      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      Anwar Gasim Gasim, Anwar
      Lester C. Hunt Hunt, Lester C.
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      6 June 2023
      Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

      Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

      Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition…

      Anwar Gasim Gasim, Anwar
      Lester C. Hunt Hunt, Lester C.
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      14 May 2023
      Baseline Forecasts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      Baseline Forecasts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

      Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

      As a party to the Paris Agreement, Saudi Arabia submitted a baseline emissions reduction target as part of its nationally determined contribution. The baseline target rests on the development of a baseline emissions scenario. This is a counterfactual scenario that…

      Anwar Gasim Gasim, Anwar
      Lester C. Hunt Hunt, Lester C.
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      11 May 2023
      Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model
      Models, Data and Tools

      Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

      Fakhri Hasanov, Muhammad Javid, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Rami Shabaneh, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani

      Macroeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first…

      Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
      Muhammad Javid Javid, Muhammad
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Rami Shabaneh Shabaneh, Rami
      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      Ryan Alyamani Alyamani, Ryan
      10 May 2023
      Regional Fuel Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Saudi Arabia: Impacts of Electricity Price Reforms
      Models, Data and Tools

      Regional Fuel Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Saudi Arabia: Impacts of Electricity Price Reforms

      Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Salaheddine Soummane

      Evaluating the potential outcomes of energy price reforms is essential for policymakers to assess their effectiveness. In 2016 and 2018, the Saudi government enacted two waves of energy price reforms to curb historically fast-growing electricity demand. We quantify the effects…

      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Salaheddine Soummane Soummane, Salaheddine
      5 March 2023
      A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia: A Case Study on the World’s Largest Oil Exporter

      A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia: A Case Study on the World’s Largest Oil Exporter

      Muhammad Javid, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz

      Open Access Brief Introduces the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia Combines cutting-edge econometric methods, a well-established theoretical foundation, and empirical coherence Customizable for different research and policy questions   Click here to read the book

      Muhammad Javid Javid, Muhammad
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
      Fred Joutz Joutz, Fred
      1 January 2023
      How to Mitigate Transportation Emissions in Saudi Arabia? The Role of Energy Price Governance
      Models, Data and Tools

      How to Mitigate Transportation Emissions in Saudi Arabia? The Role of Energy Price Governance

      Sa’d Shannak, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Rubal Dua

      In light of Saudi Arabia’s recent energy-pricing reform strategy, this paper investigates the main drivers of fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the transport sector. We employed a battery of econometric techniques to analyze the long-run relationships between income, fuel…

      Sa’d Shannak Sa’d Shannak
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Rubal Dua Dua, Rubal
      29 May 2022
      Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

      Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

      Jeyhun Mikayilov, Ryan Alyamani, Abdulelah Darandary, Muhammad Javid, Fakhri Hasanov, Saleh T. AlTurki, Rey B. Arnaiz

      The objective of this study is to investigate Saudi Arabia’s industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. We apply structural time series modeling to annual data over the period of 1990 to 2019. In addition to estimating the size and…

      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Ryan Alyamani Alyamani, Ryan
      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      Muhammad Javid Javid, Muhammad
      Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
      Saleh T. AlTurki Saleh T. AlTurki
      Rey B. Arnaiz Rey B. Arnaiz
      13 January 2022
      Saving Costs and Emissions by Reforming Electricity Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Counterfactual Assessment
      Models, Data and Tools

      Saving Costs and Emissions by Reforming Electricity Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Counterfactual Assessment

      Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Hatem Al Atawi

      Electricity price reforms are generally regarded as a mechanism to reduce distortions in energy markets, improve energy efficiency, and increase government revenue. However, an additional co-benefit of such policy measures is lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
      Hatem Al Atawi Al Atawi, Hatem
      23 December 2021