Publications

Energy Transition in Oil-Dependent Economies: Public Discount Rates for Investment Project Evaluation

Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru

The selection of welfare-enhancing projects necessitates the determination of the present value of cash flows from a public policy perspective. For an oil-exporting economy, the domestic energy transition often implies displacing oil from domestic consumption. Economic dependence on oil affects…

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

Resilience of Saudi Arabia’s Economy to Oil Shocks: Effects of Economic Reforms

Sage Journals

We assess the extent to which the implementation of Vision 2030 policies enhances the Saudi economy’s resilience to oil shocks. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that captures the country’s economic diversification policies, we build a resilience index based…

Hossa Almutairi, Axel Pierru, Baltasar Manzano, Marzio Galeotti

Managing the Oil Market Under Misinformation: A Reasonable Quest?

Hossa Almutairi, Axel Pierru, James L. Smith

This paper examines the type and quality of information that OPEC needs to stabilize the oil market. We extend our previous structural model, in which OPEC makes potential mistakes in judging the size of market shocks, to now include the…

Almutairi, Hossa

Pierru, Axel

James L. Smith

Will Government Support for CCS-EOR Lead to Reduced Emissions?

Axel Pierru, Hossa Almutairi

Government support for CCS-EOR projects is often contested on the grounds that the resulting increase in oil production undermines their environmental benefits. This paper summarizes a simple approach based on a marginal reasoning consistent with economic decision-making. It produces analytical…

Pierru, Axel

Almutairi, Hossa

Assessing Climate Mitigation Benefits of Public Support to CCS-EOR: An Economic Analysis

Hossa Almutairi, Axel Pierru

Government support for CCS-EOR projects is sometimes contested on the grounds that the resulting increase in oil production undermines their environmental benefits. Addressing this concern requires determining the effects of implementing CCS-EOR on global CO2 emissions. This paper presents a…

Almutairi, Hossa

Pierru, Axel

Hard-linking a Top-down Economic Model with a Bottom-up Energy System for an Oil-exporting Country with Price Controls

Science Direct

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Axel Pierru, Hossa Almutairi, Abdullah AlJarboua, Shreekar Pradhan, Frederic Murphy

Oil Market Stabilization: The Performance of OPEC and Its Allies

IAEE

Axel Pierru, Hossa Almutairi, James L. Smith

Resilience of Saudi Arabia’s Economy to Oil Shocks: Effects of Economic Reforms

Hossa Almutairi, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru

We assess the extent to which the implementation of Saudi Vision 2030 policies enhances the Saudi economy’s resilience to oil price and production shocks, and to the productivity of tradable and non-tradable goods. We extend Blazquez et al.’s (2021) dynamic…

Almutairi, Hossa

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

IAEE

Bertrand Rioux, Axel Pierru, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

Modeling World Oil Market Questions: An Economic Perspective

Science Direct

The choice of a modeling approach is driven by the oil policy or market question that needs to be addressed. We provide the non-modeling community with insightful information on oil market models, shedding light on the economic interpretation of technical…

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Axel Pierru

The Value of Opec’s Spare Capacity to the Oil Market and Global Economy

Wiley Online Library

We investigate the extent to which OPEC has succeeded in its self‐stated mission of stabilising the oil market and the implications for the world’s economy. We discuss the modelling framework developed by Pierru, Smith and Zamrik (2018) and Pierru, Smith…

Hossa Almutairi, Axel Pierru, James L. Smith

The Opportunity Cost of Domestic Oil Consumption For an Oil exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia

Science Direct

We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess the opportunity cost of domestic oil consumption for an oil-exporting country. We show that the opportunity cost depends on various factors, including the constraints to which the oil producer is subject and…

Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru

Sectoral and Economy-Wide Effects of Domestic Energy Price Reforms in Saudi Arabia

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Hossa Almutairi, Abdullah AlJarboua, Frederic Murphy, Shreekar Pradhan, Axel Pierru

This paper simulates the sectoral and economy-wide consequences of deregulating energy prices in Saudi Arabia. Our analysis is based on KAPSARC’s general equilibrium energy model (KEMGE), a new hybrid computable general equilibrium model (CGE). The model examines the effects of…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Almutairi, Hossa

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Murphy, Frederic

Pradhan, Shreekar

Pierru, Axel

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

Structural changes in the global oil sector are disrupting conventional market dynamics and the roles played by competing and cooperating producers. Industry players are adjusting to the shale (or ‘tight’) oil revolution and the possibility of plateauing or peaking global…

Rioux, Bertrand

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

Alrashed, Shahd

Ward, Colin

Promoting Energy Market Stability in a Transitioning World

T20

Stability in international energy markets is critical for promoting adequate investment in infrastructure so that economic activity can be sustained, in order to provide pathways for growth and improvement in welfare. In light of recent global events and the varied…

Kenneth Medlock III, Axel Pierru, Hossa Almutairi

Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

Motivation and objective of the study What if OPEC decided to abandon organizing residual production collectively, transitioning the world permanently to a competitive oil market? This commentary is based on a forthcoming KAPSARC paper, “Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating…

Rioux, Bertrand

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

Alrashed, Shahd

Ward, Colin

OPEC’s Pursuit of Market Stability

IAEE

We investigate attempts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilize the price of oil during the past fifty years. We first develop a novel decomposition of shifts in global demand and non-OPEC supply. This decomposition provides a…

Axel Pierru, James L. Smith, Hossa Almutairi

Analyzing the Effects of Saudi Arabia’s Economic Reforms Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

Jorge Blazquez, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru, Shreekar Pradhan

Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest holder of proved oil reserves and the second-largest producer of petroleum liquids. The country is the largest exporter of crude oil, with a share of 16% of total crude oil exports in 2017. Saudi Arabia’s…

Blazquez, Jorge

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Pradhan, Shreekar

Optimal Policies for Managing Oil Revenue Stabilization Funds: An Illustration Using Saudi Arabia

Science Direct

We develop an analytical approach that offers insights into how governments can better manage an oil-revenue stabilization fund. The model maximizes the expected intertemporal utility of households and consists of decisions that are a function of the fund level and…

Nader AlKathiri, Tarek Atalla, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru

Implementing Alternative Pricing Policies in Economic Equilibrium Models Using the Extended Mathematical Programming Framework

Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru

Standard economic optimization models represent markets in perfect competition. They are commonly used, though they may not accurately represent real-world policies and regulations. Equilibrium models built using a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) approach are capable of simulating more flexible pricing…

Rioux, Bertrand

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Murphy, Frederic

Pierru, Axel