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      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

      Total global oil demand is expected to increase year-on-year (YoY) by 4.3 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2021 to 96.3 MMb/d. It is expected to further grow by 3.2 MMb/d in 2022 (300,000 barrels per day [Kb/d] less than…

      2nd May 2021
      India’s Political Ambition of Implementing Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Targets
      Future of Transport and Fuel Demand

      India’s Political Ambition of Implementing Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Targets

      Yagyavalk Bhatt, Rubal Dua

      The Indian transportation sector is going through a massive transition, especially the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector. Policymakers consider the electrification of road transport to be one of the ways of solving India’s triple problem of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,…

      Yagyavalk Bhatt Bhatt, Yagyavalk
      Rubal Dua Dua, Rubal
      26th April 2021
      Fiscal Policy for Stability in Oil-Exporting Countries: From the Old Problems to the Challenges of COVID-19
      Energy and Economic Vulnerability

      Fiscal Policy for Stability in Oil-Exporting Countries: From the Old Problems to the Challenges of COVID-19

      Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Fatih Karanfil

      Since the Great Recession of 2008, oil-exporting countries have had to adjust their fiscal policies to respond to larger oil price variations and increased unpredictability. This commentary provides insights into the relationship between oil prices and fiscal policies in emerging…

      Olivier Durand-Lasserve Durand-Lasserve, Olivier
      Fatih Karanfil Karanfil, Fatih
      25th April 2021
      Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

      David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary

      The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the…

      David Havrlant Havrlant, David
      Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
      14th April 2021
      What Policy Levers Could Address Indiaʼs Automobile-Related Externalities?
      Future of Transport and Fuel Demand

      What Policy Levers Could Address Indiaʼs Automobile-Related Externalities?

      Rubal Dua, Yagyavalk Bhatt, Dimpy Suneja

        The Indian government has shown a growing recognition of the need for policy instruments aimed at addressing increasing air pollution, oil imports, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with India’s light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector. Based on the findings of…

      Rubal Dua Dua, Rubal
      Yagyavalk Bhatt Bhatt, Yagyavalk
      Dimpy Suneja Suneja, Dimpy
      12th April 2021
      Estimating Different Order Polynomial Logarithmic Environmental Kuznets Curves

      Estimating Different Order Polynomial Logarithmic Environmental Kuznets Curves

      Springer Link

      This paper contributes to the environmental literature by (i) demonstrating that the estimated coefficients and the statistical significance of the non-leading terms in quadratic, cubic, and quartic logarithmic environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) specifications are arbitrary and should therefore not be…

      Fakhri Hasanov, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Lester C. Hunt

      2021
      Impact of COVID-19 on Passenger Railway Demand in Saudi Arabia

      Impact of COVID-19 on Passenger Railway Demand in Saudi Arabia

      Abdulrahman Alwosheel

      The Saudi Railways Organization (SRO) operates a network of approximately 1,400 kilometers (km). This network links the Eastern Province with Riyadh, where more than 40% of the country’s population and economic activities are located. A passenger line connects Riyadh with…

      Abdulrahman Alwosheel Alwosheel, Abdulrahman
      6th April 2021
      The RCEP and its Potential Impact on Saudi Regional Exports
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      The RCEP and its Potential Impact on Saudi Regional Exports

      Philipp Galkin, Dongmei Chen

      On November 15, 2020, 10 Southeast Asian economies, joined by Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, formed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – the world’s largest trading bloc, representing about a third of the global economy (BBC…

      Philipp Galkin Galkin, Philipp
      Dongmei Chen Chen, Dongmei
      30th March 2021
      Overview of Saudi Electricity Demand (1970–2018)
      Electricity Sector Transitions

      Overview of Saudi Electricity Demand (1970–2018)

      Salaheddine Soummane

      Saudi Arabia’s demand for electricity is undergoing unprecedented changes. In recent years, the government has implemented several efficiency measures and pricing reforms to curb demand growth. These measures started delivering concrete results in 2016. After decades of rapid growth, the…

      Salaheddine Soummane Soummane, Salaheddine
      29th March 2021
      Economic Analysis of Gas Pipeline Trade Cooperation: A GCC case study

      Economic Analysis of Gas Pipeline Trade Cooperation: A GCC case study

      Bertrand Rioux, Rami Shabaneh, Steve Griffiths

      Natural gas development across the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain —has become a priority for achieving long-term energy security and for supporting economic…

      Bertrand Rioux Rioux, Bertrand
      Rami Shabaneh Shabaneh, Rami
      Steve Griffiths Griffiths, Steve
      23rd March 2021
      Advancing Market Integration and Decarbonization: How to Ensure a Smooth Transition?
      Electricity Sector Transitions

      Advancing Market Integration and Decarbonization: How to Ensure a Smooth Transition?

      The concept of connecting electricity markets, which started with the sole objective of maximizing economic gains, is now being increasingly expanded to fulfill other policy objectives, primarily to support the low-carbon future energy system. The importance of clearly articulating policies,…

      22nd March 2021
      Private Participation in the Renewable Energy Transition
      Electricity Sector Transitions

      Private Participation in the Renewable Energy Transition

      Fatih Yılmaz

      The electricity sector captures a significant portion of PPI flows in developing countries. Over half (51%) of total PPI flows in developing countries since 1995 (~ US$1.9 trillion) went into the electricity sector. This figure covers the privatization of existing…

      Fatih Yılmaz Yılmaz, Fatih
      22nd March 2021
      Are Electric Vehicle Subsidies Becoming More Impactful Over Time?
      Future of Transport and Fuel Demand

      Are Electric Vehicle Subsidies Becoming More Impactful Over Time?

      Tamara Sheldon, Rubal Dua, Omar Al Harbi

      Various subsidies for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have been implemented worldwide at the federal, state and regional levels. These subsidies aim to promote PEV adoption to help reduce both local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (Hardman 2019). In the…

      Tamara Sheldon Sheldon, Tamara
      Rubal Dua Dua, Rubal
      Omar Al Harbi Omar Al Harbi
      22nd March 2021
      Long-run Effects of Real-time Electricity Pricing in the Saudi Power Sector
      Models, Data and Tools

      Long-run Effects of Real-time Electricity Pricing in the Saudi Power Sector

      Walid Matar

      This study explores the potential effects of real-time electricity pricing on the operations of Saudi Arabia’s power generation sector. The Kingdom currently sets fuel prices for power utilities at levels that suppress the costs of power generation. However, this analysis…

      Walid Matar Matar, Walid
      22nd March 2021
      The Value of Opec’s Spare Capacity to the Oil Market and Global Economy

      The Value of Opec’s Spare Capacity to the Oil Market and Global Economy

      Wiley Online Library

      We investigate the extent to which OPEC has succeeded in its self‐stated mission of stabilising the oil market and the implications for the world’s economy. We discuss the modelling framework developed by Pierru, Smith and Zamrik (2018) and Pierru, Smith…

      Hossa Almutairi, Axel Pierru, James L. Smith

      2021
      Fuel Economy Valuation and Preferences of Indian Two-Wheeler Buyers

      Fuel Economy Valuation and Preferences of Indian Two-Wheeler Buyers

      Science Direct

      India has experienced exponential growth in sales of two-wheelers due to their high fuel economy and easy manoeuvrability in congested traffic conditions. Understanding Indian consumers’ valuation of fuel economy while purchasing a two-wheeler is crucial to evaluate whether Indian two-wheeler…

      Rubal Dua

      2021