Publications

Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

Abdulelah Darandary, Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

As a party to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees and keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Saudi Arabia has submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC).…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Gasim, Anwar

Hunt, Lester C.

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Fakhri Hasanov, Muhammad Javid, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Rami Shabaneh, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani

Macroeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Javid, Muhammad

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Shabaneh, Rami

Darandary, Abdulelah

Alyamani, Ryan

Seasonal Adjustment of GDP Time Series – Private Sector Component

Jeremy Rothfield, Mansour Al Rajhi

The General Authority for Statistics (GaStat) categorizes Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product (GDP) into institutional oil and non-oil segments. The institutional non-oil segment can be further broken down into institutional government and institutional private sectors. For analysts, the seasonal adjustment…

Jeremy Rothfield

Mansour Al Rajhi

Regional Fuel Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Saudi Arabia: Impacts of Electricity Price Reforms

Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Salaheddine Soummane

Evaluating the potential outcomes of energy price reforms is essential for policymakers to assess their effectiveness. In 2016 and 2018, the Saudi government enacted two waves of energy price reforms to curb historically fast-growing electricity demand. We quantify the effects…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Soummane, Salaheddine

A Remaining Piece of the COVID-19 Puzzle: Saudi Arabia’s Remittances Account

Abdulelah Darandary, Muhammad Javid, Maria Alkhamees

It has been two years since the beginning of COVID-19, a one-of-a-kind crisis in recent history. The global economy was disrupted entirely in a few months and most economies faced shutdowns. While many disruptions can be explained, especially the economic…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Javid, Muhammad

Maria Alkhamees

How to Mitigate Transportation Emissions in Saudi Arabia? The Role of Energy Price Governance

Sa’d Shannak, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Rubal Dua

In light of Saudi Arabia’s recent energy-pricing reform strategy, this paper investigates the main drivers of fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the transport sector. We employed a battery of econometric techniques to analyze the long-run relationships between income, fuel…

Sa’d Shannak

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Dua, Rubal

Determinants of Remittance Outflows: The Case of Saudi Arabia

Muhammad Javid, Fakhri Hasanov

International labor migration has played a key role in the development of both advanced and developing countries. Many developing countries in Asia have relied on labor migration, mainly to the oil-rich Gulf region, to reduce both unemployment and poverty (Naseem…

Javid, Muhammad

Hasanov, Fakhri

Energy Open Data, Energy Policy Scenario Models and Tools

The workshop brought together over 40 experts from research, academia, government and industry to exchange ideas and experiences around the theme of open data for the energy sector. Participants discussed obstacles for Saudi Arabia, including the limited availability of open…

Saving Costs and Emissions by Reforming Electricity Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Counterfactual Assessment

Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Hatem Al Atawi

Electricity price reforms are generally regarded as a mechanism to reduce distortions in energy markets, improve energy efficiency, and increase government revenue. However, an additional co-benefit of such policy measures is lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Darandary, Abdulelah

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Al Atawi, Hatem

Oil Market Shocks and Financial Instability in Asian Countries

Fakhri Hasanov, Leila Dagher

There is no commodity whose interlinkages with the macroeconomy have been studied as extensively as oil, starting with Hamilton’s (1983) seminal study. Thousands of subsequent studies have examined the relationship between oil prices and various economic variables, including the stock…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Dagher, Leila

Sectoral Investment Analysis for Saudi Arabia

Muhammad Javid, Fakhri Hasanov, Carlo Andrea Bollino, Marzio Galeotti

This study aims to investigate the determinants of short- and long-run investment behavior in Saudi Arabia for eight non-oil sectors. Saudi Arabia is currently proceeding with its historic Vision 2030 reform plan, which aims to significantly increase the private sector’s…

Javid, Muhammad

Hasanov, Fakhri

Bollino, Carlo Andrea

Galeotti, Marzio

Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Muhammad Javid

The diversification of the non-oil sector, including its exports, is at the core of Saudi Vision 2030. This study investigates Saudi non-oil exports in a novel way. Specifically, it differs from previous studies on this topic owing to its modeling…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Javid, Muhammad

Long-run Effects of Real-time Electricity Pricing in the Saudi Power Sector

Walid Matar

This study explores the potential effects of real-time electricity pricing on the operations of Saudi Arabia’s power generation sector. The Kingdom currently sets fuel prices for power utilities at levels that suppress the costs of power generation. However, this analysis…

Matar, Walid

Policies to Nationalize the Private Sector Labor Force in a Matching Model with Public Jobs and Quotas

Olivier Durand-Lasserve

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries aim to employ more of their nationals in the private sector to absorb the inflow of new entrants into the labor force. They have put in place workforce nationalization policies to revert two peculiar features…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Residential Energy Model for Evaluating Energy Demand and Energy Efficiency Programs in Saudi Residential Buildings

Mohammad Aldubyan, Moncef Krarti, Eric Williams

This paper describes the development of the Residential Energy Model (REEM) for Saudi Arabia using an engineering bottom-up approach. The model can assess energy demand for the current residential building stock and the impact of energy efficiency and demand-side management…

Aldubyan, Mohammad

Krarti, Moncef

Williams, Eric

Saudi Arabia Energy Report

Abeer AlGhamdi

Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s leading oil producers and exporters. It has the second-largest proven crude oil reserves after Venezuela. Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves have made it one of the most significant players in the global oil market.…

AlGhamdi, Abeer

Fiscal Multipliers for Saudi Arabia Revisited

H.E. Dr. Majid Al Moneef, Fakhri Hasanov

Fiscal policy lies at the heart of key macroeconomic and budgetary decisions and is central to understanding the dynamics of oil rich economies. Fiscal multipliers, including spending multipliers, indicate how changes to fiscal policy can stimulate economic growth, to what…

H.E. Dr. Majid Al Moneef

Hasanov, Fakhri

Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani, Fakhri Hasanov, Hatem Al Atawi

Aggregate residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia has increased rapidly over the past several decades, largely due to population increases and fast economic growth (SAMA 2019). The growth in electricity consumption has been driven, among other factors, by government-administered prices…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Darandary, Abdulelah

Alyamani, Ryan

Hasanov, Fakhri

Al Atawi, Hatem

Sectoral and Economy-Wide Effects of Domestic Energy Price Reforms in Saudi Arabia

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Hossa Almutairi, Abdullah AlJarboua, Frederic Murphy, Shreekar Pradhan, Axel Pierru

This paper simulates the sectoral and economy-wide consequences of deregulating energy prices in Saudi Arabia. Our analysis is based on KAPSARC’s general equilibrium energy model (KEMGE), a new hybrid computable general equilibrium model (CGE). The model examines the effects of…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Almutairi, Hossa

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Murphy, Frederic

Pradhan, Shreekar

Pierru, Axel

Analyzing the Effects of Saudi Arabia’s Economic Reforms Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

Jorge Blazquez, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru, Shreekar Pradhan

Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest holder of proved oil reserves and the second-largest producer of petroleum liquids. The country is the largest exporter of crude oil, with a share of 16% of total crude oil exports in 2017. Saudi Arabia’s…

Blazquez, Jorge

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Pradhan, Shreekar