Publications

Analyzing the Effects of Saudi Arabia’s Economic Reforms Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

Jorge Blazquez, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru, Shreekar Pradhan

Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest holder of proved oil reserves and the second-largest producer of petroleum liquids. The country is the largest exporter of crude oil, with a share of 16% of total crude oil exports in 2017. Saudi Arabia’s…

Blazquez, Jorge

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Pradhan, Shreekar

Electricity Demand Modeling in Saudi Arabia: Do Regional Differences Matter

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fakhri Hasanov, Waheed Olagunju, Mohammad H. Al-Shehri

Energy is a pervasive input to all business and recreational activities. As such, total energy demand is an important indicator that helps explain the pattern of economic development within a country. Identifying and understanding the key determinants of electricity demand…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Hasanov, Fakhri

Waheed Olagunju

Mohammad H. Al-Shehri

Is Saudi Arabia Getting Warmer?

Nawaz Peerbocus, Hatem Al Atawi, Turki Alaqeel, Abdulrahman AlJulaifi

According to NASA, the world is getting warmer. Warmer weather increases the demand for cooling, which subsequently increases the demand for electricity. Is Saudi Arabia getting warmer? And how might this impact the demand for electricity in the Kingdom? To…

Peerbocus, Nawaz

Al Atawi, Hatem

Alaqeel, Turki

AlJulaifi, Abdulrahman

KGEMM: A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Muhammad Javid

The KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Muhammad Javid

Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fred Joutz, Fakhri Hasanov

After the drop in international oil prices in 2014, oil-exporting countries started to launch new policies to develop their economies. It is important that policymakers involved in energy and economic development understand how economic agents respond to increased energy prices…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Joutz, Fred

Hasanov, Fakhri

The Growth of India’s Electricity Generation Capacity

Yagyavalk Bhatt

Coal power plants accounted for 57% of India’s total generation capacity of 344 gigawatts (GW).

Bhatt, Yagyavalk

Residential Electricity Price Reforms: Are Different Income Groups and Regions Impacted Equally?

Ryan Alyamani, Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fakhri Hasanov

The government of Saudi Arabia has successfully reduced the country’s energy intensity, helped by its establishment of the Saudi Energy Efficiency Center (SEEC) and a series of energy price reforms (EPR) that began in 2016. However, how households have responded…

Alyamani, Ryan

Darandary, Abdulelah

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Hasanov, Fakhri

The Changing Impact of Income and Price on Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fred Joutz, Fakhri Hasanov

The growth path of gasoline demand, a key strategic fuel, has important implications for oil security, oil-related carbon emissions, and refinery investment (Dahl 2012). As such, understanding how fluctuations in income and gasoline prices could affect the demand for oil…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Joutz, Fred

Hasanov, Fakhri

Theoretical Framework for Industrial Electricity Consumption Revisited

Fakhri Hasanov

Policymakers should expect that the energy price reform in Saudi Arabia will reduce industrial electricity consumption. However, this reduction will be slight as the price effect is found to be very small. At the same time, policymakers should be aware…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Political Feasibility of Enhancing the Russian Emissions Reduction Target Under the Paris Agreement

Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Saleh Al Muhanna, Zlata Sergeeva

It is widely recognized that the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement fall short of achieving the 2 degrees Celsius global warming target, agreed as the central goal of the agreement and its parties. Given this, KAPSARC has set…

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Al Muhanna, Saleh

Zlata Sergeeva

Assessing Politics in Market Projections-Restarting Japanese Nuclear Reactors and Global Gas Markets

Saleh Al Muhanna, Rami Shabaneh

This paper explores the value of explicitly integrating the modeling of political concerns into a model of energy market projections. This is achieved by assessing the impact on global gas markets of political constraints on restarting Japanese nuclear reactors. The…

Al Muhanna, Saleh

Shabaneh, Rami

Can Japanese Nuclear Power Be Restarted Sooner? A Simulation of Alternative Scenarios

Saleh Al Muhanna, Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Brian Efird, Faisal Al-Ghamdi

This study assesses whether there are politically plausible paths to more quickly gain support for restarting Japanese nuclear power plants and considers alternative scenarios. It builds on the 2018 KAPSARC discussion paper, “The Policymaking Process to Restart Japanese Nuclear Power,”…

Al Muhanna, Saleh

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Efird, Brian

Al-Ghamdi, Faisal

KAPSARC’s Contribution to Evaluating the Impact of Price Controls

Axel Pierru, Walid Matar

The European Journal of Operational Research has just published a paper, “Measuring the effects of price controls using mixed complementarity models” (2019). It detailed a series of innovative modeling approaches developed by KAPSARC researchers over the last six years. The…

Pierru, Axel

Matar, Walid

An Economic Analysis of China’s Domestic Crude Oil Supply Policies

Bertrand Rioux, Philipp Galkin, Kang Wu

China’s domestic oil production has lagged the rapid growth in the country’s oil consumption since 2000, leading to a large, and growing, reliance on crude imports to meet demand. Factors including China’s current market structure and regulatory environment impede further…

Rioux, Bertrand

Galkin, Philipp

Wu, Kang

Iran Sanctions: Implications for the Oil Market

Carlo Andrea Bollino, Brian Efird, Fakhri Hasanov, Emre Hatipoglu

United States (U.S.) Iran energy sanction waivers expired May 2, 2019. The waivers permitted eight economies (China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey) to temporarily continue buying oil from Iran. Based on KAPSARC modeling of the political…

Bollino, Carlo Andrea

Efird, Brian

Hasanov, Fakhri

Hatipoglu, Emre

Estimating the Impact of Energy Price Reform on Saudi Arabian Intergenerational Welfare using the MEGIR-SA Model

Energy Journal

This paper investigates the intergenerational welfare impact of raising state administered retail energy prices in Saudi Arabia, an example of an oil exporting country with a fast growing population. To achieve this, we develop a dynamic model with overlapping generations (called MEGIR-SA), which…

Frederic Gonand, Fakhri Hasanov, Lester C. Hunt

Electricity Tariff Changes in Saudi Arabia 1974-2018

Abeer AlGhamdi

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s households account for around 50% of national power consumption, with more than 7 million residential customers in 2017. The majority of this power is used for air conditioning and cooling systems due to the climate…

AlGhamdi, Abeer

The Policymaking Process to Restart Japanese Nuclear Power Plants

Brian Efird, Saleh Al Muhanna, Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Shahad Turkistani, Faisal Al-Ghamdi

The Japanese government’s decision to continue restarting nuclear power is shaped by a combination of domestic political concerns, energy security challenges, and its ability to meet climate change commitments and targets. Nuclear power plants have started to come back online,…

Efird, Brian

Al Muhanna, Saleh

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Turkistani, Shahad

Al-Ghamdi, Faisal

India’s Balancing Act to Address Climate Change Under the Paris Agreement

Yagyavalk Bhatt, AlJawhara Al Quayid, Nourah Al Hosain, Paul Mollet

As an emerging economy, a major part of India’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris  Agreement is an emissions intensity target. With its current policies, India is on track to achieve its climate targets under the Agreement. However, the…

Bhatt, Yagyavalk

Al Quayid, AlJawhara

Al Hosain, Nourah

Mollet, Paul

Oil and Oil-related Products Exported via Saudi Ports

Abeer AlGhamdi

Saudi Arabia ranks as the world’s largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products; the oil and gas sector accounts for about 70 percent of export earnings. Ras Tanura and Yanbu are the major oil-exporting ports in Saudi Arabia, accounting…

AlGhamdi, Abeer