Publications

Capturing the Value From Supply-Side Shocks in the Heavy Crude Market

Philipp Galkin, Jennifer Considine, Evar Umeozor

The Russian-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russian crude oil flows have significantly affected world oil markets. Price volatility has increased, flows have been re-directed and there is considerable uncertainty concerning future energy policy. The implications of these changes affect all…

Galkin, Philipp

Considine, Jennifer

Umeozor, Evar

The G7 Pricing Scheme, an Exercise in Monopsony Power

Carlo Andrea Bollino, Jennifer Considine

High in the Bavarian Alps, at a special security session, G7 leaders set out to devise an ambitious plan to sanction Russian energy sales. The intent was to reduce Russian profits from oil and gas sales, while minimizing the damage…

Bollino, Carlo Andrea

Considine, Jennifer

The Effects of Russian Sanctions on the Global Economy

Abdullah Aldayel, Jennifer Considine, Emre Hatipoglu, Colin Ward

On February 24, 2022, Russia began a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, which quickly escalated into a militarized conflict across multiple fronts. The act drew immediate disapproval from the United Nations and led most members of the Western alliance to…

Aldayel, Abdullah

Considine, Jennifer

Hatipoglu, Emre

Ward, Colin

Global Crude Oil Storage Index: A New Benchmark for Energy Policy

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

The global oil market dwarfs other commodity markets. Its size and role in the energy and industrial value chains underscore its significant economic and geopolitical impacts. Thus, the consequences of oil price fluctuations extend far beyond the oil industry and…

Considine, Jennifer

Galkin, Philipp

Aldayel, Abdullah

Unintended Transnational Effects of Sanctions: A Global Vector Autoregression Simulation

Taylor & Francis

Emre Hatipoglu, Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

Inventories and the Term Structure of Oil Prices: A Complex Relationship

Elsevier

Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel, Philipp Galkin

The Sensitivity of Oil Price Shocks to Preexisting Market Conditions: A GVAR Analysis

Science Direct

This study develops a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model to simulate various types of shocks to oil markets and to see whether such shocks are time-sensitive in oil markets. Our model extends the canonical Mohaddes and Pesaran (2016) model temporally…

Jennifer Considine, Emre Hatipoglu, Abdullah Aldayel

Volatility, Contango, and Crude Oil Inventories: A Complex Relationship

Business School University of Colorado Denver

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

Extreme Market Distortions Canadian Crude Oil Flows

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

With extensive natural resources and strategic access to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, Canada has the potential to become a global energy powerhouse – provided that the nation is successful in alleviating its infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the United…

Considine, Jennifer

Galkin, Philipp

Aldayel, Abdullah

Balancing World Oil Markets and Understanding Contango and Inventories: The Changing Nature of World Oil Markets

Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

The general theory of storage suggests that the level of inventories is a key factor in determining the structure of the oil futures curve, or the basis, over time. The basis is the difference between the price of oil in…

Considine, Jennifer

Aldayel, Abdullah

World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel, Emre Hatipoglu

Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear…

Considine, Jennifer

Aldayel, Abdullah

Hatipoglu, Emre

Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The…

Considine, Jennifer

Galkin, Philipp

Aldayel, Abdullah

Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Ziyad Alfawzan, Sammy Six

In this paper, joint oil stockpiling (JOS) refers to a commercial arrangement whereby crude oil, owned and commercially traded by an exporting country, is stored in an importing country in exchange for priority drawdown by the host country in the…

Considine, Jennifer

Wu, Kang

Alfawzan, Ziyad

Six, Sammy

The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Abdullah Aldayel

In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile,…

Considine, Jennifer

Wu, Kang

Aldayel, Abdullah

Securing New Markets in Asia: The Value of Strategic Spot Crude Oil Sales to Teapot Refiners

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Abdullah Aldayel

In the race to secure customers on competitive world oil markets, many oil producers are looking to China as a promising source of increased market share. The task of securing new customers in China can be challenging, as most of…

Considine, Jennifer

Wu, Kang

Aldayel, Abdullah

The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

Abdullah Aldayel, AlJawhara Al Quayid, Jennifer Considine, Emre Hatipoglu

After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth…

Aldayel, Abdullah

Al Quayid, AlJawhara

Considine, Jennifer

Hatipoglu, Emre

A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

Hamid M. Al Sadoon, Colin Ward, Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a…

Al Sadoon, Hamid M.

Ward, Colin

Considine, Jennifer

Aldayel, Abdullah

The Demise of the Energy Marketing Industry: An Industry in Decline?

Oilweek, (Calgary: June Warren Publishing Ltd.)

Jennifer Considine

Real Options Valuation and Energy Markets

Risk Magazine (London: Risk Waters Group)

Jennifer Considine

Transformation and Reform in the Russian Energy Sector

Joint Project on Revitalizing Russian Industry, University of Calgary—Gorbachev Foundation Public Policy Project (UCGF’99)

Jennifer Considine