23 results

Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis
Future of Global Oil Markets

Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The…

Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
Philipp Galkin Galkin, Philipp
Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
February 24, 2020
Assessment of Coronavirus Effects on Oil Demand Implied by Price Elasticities

Assessment of Coronavirus Effects on Oil Demand Implied by Price Elasticities

Ronald Ripple, Dongmei Chen, Abdullah Aldayel, Hamid M. Al Sadoon

There appears to be a significant response in the crude oil markets to the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has since spread globally. Many cities in Hubei, of which Wuhan is the capital, have been…

Ronald Ripple Ripple, Ronald
Dongmei Chen Chen, Dongmei
Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
Hamid M. Al Sadoon Al Sadoon, Hamid M.
February 20, 2020
Oil Market Reactions to Recent Geopolitical Events

Oil Market Reactions to Recent Geopolitical Events

Ronald Ripple

The prices for crude oil reported on both the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, London) reflect the oil market’s expectations for the future balance of oil supply and demand. In the face of significant geopolitical…

Ronald Ripple Ripple, Ronald
February 11, 2020
Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility
Future of Global Oil Markets

Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Ziyad Alfawzan, Sammy Six

In this paper, joint oil stockpiling (JOS) refers to a commercial arrangement whereby crude oil, owned and commercially traded by an exporting country, is stored in an importing country in exchange for priority drawdown by the host country in the…

Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
Kang Wu Wu, Kang
Ziyad Alfawzan Alfawzan, Ziyad
Sammy Six Six, Sammy
January 23, 2020
The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas
Future of Global Oil Markets

The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Abdullah Aldayel

In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile,…

Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
Kang Wu Wu, Kang
Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
January 16, 2020
The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets
Future of Global Oil Markets

The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

Abdullah Aldayel, AlJawhara Al Quayid, Jennifer Considine, Emre Hatipoglu

After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth…

Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
AlJawhara Al Quayid Al Quayid, AlJawhara
Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
Emre Hatipoglu Hatipoglu, Emre
December 4, 2019
A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices
Future of Global Oil Markets

A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

Hamid M. Al Sadoon, Colin Ward, Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a…

Hamid M. Al Sadoon Al Sadoon, Hamid M.
Colin Ward Ward, Colin
Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
October 20, 2019
OPEC’s Impact on Oil Price Volatility: The Role of Spare Capacity
Future of Global Oil Markets

OPEC’s Impact on Oil Price Volatility: The Role of Spare Capacity

Energy Journal

OPEC claims to hold and use spare production capacity to stabilize the crude oil market. We study the impact of that buffer on the volatility of oil prices. After estimating the stochastic process that generates shocks to demand and supply,…

Axel Pierru, Tamim Zamrik

2018
Prices versus policy: An analysis of the drivers of the primary fossil fuel mix
Future of Global Oil Markets

Prices versus policy: An analysis of the drivers of the primary fossil fuel mix

Energy Policy

Energy policymakers often attempt to shape their countries’ energy mix, rather than leave it purely to market forces. By calibrating and simulating a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, this paper analyzes the primary fossil fuel mix in the USA…

Tarek Atalla, Lester C. Hunt, Baltasar Manzano

2017
Gasoline Demand, Pricing Policy and Social Welfare in Saudi Arabia
Future of Transport and Fuel Demand

Gasoline Demand, Pricing Policy and Social Welfare in Saudi Arabia

Anwar Gasim

In the face of low international oil prices, countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council recently implemented fuel price reform across a number of sectors. Saudi Arabia, for example, announced in December 2015 an increase in the gasoline price. We undertook…

Anwar Gasim Gasim, Anwar
March 12, 2017
Energy Productivity as a New Growth Model for GCC Countries
Productivity and Economic Diversification

Energy Productivity as a New Growth Model for GCC Countries

Marzio Galeotti, Nicholas Howarth, Alessandro Lanza

Following the collapse in oil prices, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have intensified efforts to find a new growth model which increases the welfare of their citizens, while reducing exposure to volatile energy markets. This paper argues that placing energy…

Marzio Galeotti Galeotti, Marzio
Nicholas Howarth Howarth, Nicholas
Alessandro Lanza Lanza, Alessandro
October 18, 2016
Substitutes for Liquid Fuels – Outlook in a Low Oil Price Environment
Future of Global Oil Markets

Substitutes for Liquid Fuels – Outlook in a Low Oil Price Environment

The case for alternatives to gasoline and diesel was historically built on economic concerns; that the world might be running out of oil, which would then become prohibitively expensive. More recently, the argument has been refocused around carbon abatement and…

March 20, 2016
Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia
Regional Energy Markets

Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

Leo Lester

This volume goes beyond a conventional analysis of Asia’s energy relationships and explores the premise that energy relations in Asia in the 21st century should reinforce mutual interdependence. Conventional analyses of international energy relations stress the asymmetric nature of the…

Leo Lester Lester, Leo
January 1, 2016
The Economics of Energy Vulnerability
Energy and Economic Vulnerability

The Economics of Energy Vulnerability

The economic vulnerability of an economy to energy disruptions is traditionally viewed through the lens of price shocks. This ‘energy vulnerability’ is driven by the energy mix, the infrastructure and the supply chain resilience that an economy enjoys.

October 24, 2015
Asian Premium or North Atlantic Discount: Does Geographical Diversification in Oil Trade Always Impose Costs?
Future of Global Oil Markets

Asian Premium or North Atlantic Discount: Does Geographical Diversification in Oil Trade Always Impose Costs?

Shahad Alarenan, Frederic Murphy, Ziyad Alfawzan, Nader AlKathiri

It is popularly believed that importers of oil diversify their suppliers to achieve security of supply and that exporters diversify their customer base to achieve security of demand. However, this diversification comes at a cost, compared with buying from or…

Shahad Alarenan Alarenan, Shahad
Frederic Murphy Murphy, Frederic
Ziyad Alfawzan Alfawzan, Ziyad
Nader AlKathiri AlKathiri, Nader
August 6, 2015