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      Real Gross Domestic Income for Saudi Arabia: A Measure of National Income
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      Real Gross Domestic Income for Saudi Arabia: A Measure of National Income

      Anwar Gasim, Walid Matar

      “A country’s national income is defined as the total market value of its output. The most used measure for national income is gross domestic product (GDP). One way to estimate GDP for a country is to sum its government consumption,…

      Anwar Gasim Gasim, Anwar
      Walid Matar Matar, Walid
      27th December 2020
      Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

      Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

      Motivation and objective of the study What if OPEC decided to abandon organizing residual production collectively, transitioning the world permanently to a competitive oil market? This commentary is based on a forthcoming KAPSARC paper, “Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating…

      Bertrand Rioux Rioux, Bertrand
      Abdullah AlJarboua AlJarboua, Abdullah
      Fatih Karanfil Karanfil, Fatih
      Axel Pierru Pierru, Axel
      Shahd Alrashed Alrashed, Shahd
      Colin Ward Ward, Colin
      16th July 2020
      World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

      Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel, Emre Hatipoglu

      Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      Emre Hatipoglu Hatipoglu, Emre
      10th June 2020
      Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

      Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

      Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Philipp Galkin Galkin, Philipp
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      24th February 2020
      Assessment of Coronavirus Effects on Oil Demand Implied by Price Elasticities

      Assessment of Coronavirus Effects on Oil Demand Implied by Price Elasticities

      Ronald Ripple, Dongmei Chen, Abdullah Aldayel, Hamid M. Al Sadoon

      There appears to be a significant response in the crude oil markets to the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has since spread globally. Many cities in Hubei, of which Wuhan is the capital, have been…

      Ronald Ripple Ripple, Ronald
      Dongmei Chen Chen, Dongmei
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      Hamid M. Al Sadoon Al Sadoon, Hamid M.
      20th February 2020
      Oil Market Reactions to Recent Geopolitical Events

      Oil Market Reactions to Recent Geopolitical Events

      Ronald Ripple

      The prices for crude oil reported on both the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, London) reflect the oil market’s expectations for the future balance of oil supply and demand. In the face of significant geopolitical…

      Ronald Ripple Ripple, Ronald
      11th February 2020
      Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility

      Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Ziyad Alfawzan, Sammy Six

      In this paper, joint oil stockpiling (JOS) refers to a commercial arrangement whereby crude oil, owned and commercially traded by an exporting country, is stored in an importing country in exchange for priority drawdown by the host country in the…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Kang Wu Wu, Kang
      Ziyad Alfawzan Alfawzan, Ziyad
      Sammy Six Six, Sammy
      23rd January 2020
      The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

      Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Abdullah Aldayel

      In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile,…

      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Kang Wu Wu, Kang
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      16th January 2020
      The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

      The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

      Abdullah Aldayel, AlJawhara Al Quayid, Jennifer Considine, Emre Hatipoglu

      After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth…

      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      AlJawhara Al Quayid Al Quayid, AlJawhara
      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Emre Hatipoglu Hatipoglu, Emre
      4th December 2019
      A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

      Hamid M. Al Sadoon, Colin Ward, Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

      The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a…

      Hamid M. Al Sadoon Al Sadoon, Hamid M.
      Colin Ward Ward, Colin
      Jennifer Considine Considine, Jennifer
      Abdullah Aldayel Aldayel, Abdullah
      20th October 2019
      OPEC’s Impact on Oil Price Volatility: The Role of Spare Capacity
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      OPEC’s Impact on Oil Price Volatility: The Role of Spare Capacity

      Energy Journal

      OPEC claims to hold and use spare production capacity to stabilize the crude oil market. We study the impact of that buffer on the volatility of oil prices. After estimating the stochastic process that generates shocks to demand and supply,…

      Axel Pierru, Tamim Zamrik

      2018
      Prices versus policy: An analysis of the drivers of the primary fossil fuel mix
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Prices versus policy: An analysis of the drivers of the primary fossil fuel mix

      Energy Policy

      Energy policymakers often attempt to shape their countries’ energy mix, rather than leave it purely to market forces. By calibrating and simulating a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, this paper analyzes the primary fossil fuel mix in the USA…

      Tarek Atalla, Lester C. Hunt, Baltasar Manzano

      2017
      Gasoline Demand, Pricing Policy and Social Welfare in Saudi Arabia
      Future of Transport and Fuel Demand

      Gasoline Demand, Pricing Policy and Social Welfare in Saudi Arabia

      Anwar Gasim

      In the face of low international oil prices, countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council recently implemented fuel price reform across a number of sectors. Saudi Arabia, for example, announced in December 2015 an increase in the gasoline price. We undertook…

      Anwar Gasim Gasim, Anwar
      12th March 2017
      Energy Productivity as a New Growth Model for GCC Countries
      Productivity and Economic Diversification

      Energy Productivity as a New Growth Model for GCC Countries

      Marzio Galeotti, Nicholas Howarth, Alessandro Lanza

      Following the collapse in oil prices, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have intensified efforts to find a new growth model which increases the welfare of their citizens, while reducing exposure to volatile energy markets. This paper argues that placing energy…

      Marzio Galeotti Galeotti, Marzio
      Nicholas Howarth Howarth, Nicholas
      Alessandro Lanza Lanza, Alessandro
      18th October 2016
      Substitutes for Liquid Fuels – Outlook in a Low Oil Price Environment
      Future of Global Oil Markets

      Substitutes for Liquid Fuels – Outlook in a Low Oil Price Environment

      The case for alternatives to gasoline and diesel was historically built on economic concerns; that the world might be running out of oil, which would then become prohibitively expensive. More recently, the argument has been refocused around carbon abatement and…

      20th March 2016