Publications

Oil & Gas

Instant Insight

Hungry AI: What Data Center Growth Means for Natural Gas Demand by 2030

11 March 2026

This Instant Insight examines how AI-driven growth in data centers could reshape global natural gas demand by 2030. Drawing on recent estimates from institutions such as the IEA, Goldman Sachs, and McKinsey, the author calculates the corresponding natural gas requirements under differ...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Urban Transport Policies and Emission Reduction Strategies in Riyadh: Insights from a Multi-Agent Simulation

05 March 2026

and ..._2.5 (vs. 15% for each under uniform incentives). Enhancing first- and last-mile metro access cuts annual CO₂ emissions by just over 1 million tonnes and travel times by about 20%, while reducing NO_x by 16.5% (≈4,451 kg) and PM_2.5by 16.6% (≈451 kg) per weekday across the network.

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

Understanding Saudi Arabia’s GDP Methodology Revision: Critical Verification of Measurement Change

04 March 2026

In May 2025, Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) announced the Kingdom’s first comprehensive GDP revision since 2010, increasing 2023 estimates by 14.1% and raising the non-oil share from 47.5% to 53.2%. This commentary assesses whether the revision reflects a gen...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

AI and Energy: The Future of Data Centers in Saudi Arabia

24 February 2026

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming the global economy, making AI-ready data centers essential drivers of this change. Unlike traditional data centers for general information technology (IT), AI-focused facilities use advanced chips, dense servers, and liq...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Methodology paper

Creating Input-Output Tables for Saudi Arabia by Processing Supply-Use Tables

23 February 2026

with the aim of producing IOTs that focus on the domestic economy. This paper describes the approaches taken to transform the 2019 SUT and produce an IOT for Saudi Arabia for the same year, and then updates the 2019 IOT to 2025 and 2030 by running a simulation using a computable gene...

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Geothermal Market Growth in Türkiye: Policy and Legislative Insights for New Market Entrants

23 February 2026

In 2023, Türkiye endured a devastating earthquake that tested the resilience of its infrastructure and underscored the nation’s seismic vulnerability, as the Anatolian Peninsula is among the most tectonically active regions in the world. This geographic reality presents both significa...

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures

19 February 2026

This review examines how global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) address equity and justice in climate mitigation scenarios. While IAMs influence international climate policy, they have been criticized for neglecting historical inequalities and diverse stakeholder perspectives. Key...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

The Water-Energy Nexus in the Saudi Agriculture Sector: Demand Forecasts and Policy Implications

19 February 2026

Agriculture in semi-arid Saudi Arabia depletes underground water reservoirs to support food security. This study estimates agricultural water demand using dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) with data from 1992-2023 and projects alternative demand scenarios through 2050. Income, pum...

Climate & Sustainability

Report

Igniting the Market for Energy Conservation in the GCC Built Environment

16 February 2026

This report outlines a practical path to examine and inform how to curb building-sector emissions in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) by pairing efficiency ambitions with policies and market arrangements that are effective under GCC climate conditions. It bridges diagnosis and deliv...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

The Circular Carbon Economy Index 2025: Results

12 February 2026

A multi-dimensional approach to energy security, under...
Closing CCE performance gaps will require strengthening enabling policy environments and scaling up clean technologies and finance.
CCE transitions in developing countries can be accelerated with scaled-up implementation support.

Transportation & Infrastructure

KAPSARC journal article

Aligning Vehicle eElectrification with Power Sector Transitions: Life Cycle Insights Across Diverse Grids

04 February 2026

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Shallow Geothermal Cooling in Saudi Arabia

04 February 2026

emissions. Regional extrapolation using measured performance and building-stock electricity profiles indicates that achieving a 40% penetration rate across commercial and governmental facilities could reduce nati...₂ emissions, and defer substantial grid-capacity investments.

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Using Satellite Technology to Measure Methane Emissions in MENA Countries

04 February 2026

Accurate methane emission measurement is needed for meeting Paris Agreement goals, yet methane emission datasets diverge substantially. Activity-based datasets rely heavily on assumed emission factors and often produce inconsistent results, while satellite-based estimates remain under...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Instant Insight

The Charging Divide: How Public Rates and Private Charging Access Shape EV Cost

01 February 2026

Saudi Arabia's electric vehicle market has moved from an early adoption phase supported by free public charging to a paid charging ecosystem, changing the economics for EV drivers. Higher public charging prices are raising operating costs and widening the affordability gap between hou...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Cooling the Kingdom: Long-Term Impacts of Climate Change on Electricity Demand and Household Expenditure in Saudi Arabia

21 January 2026

This study examines the long-term impacts of climate change on thermal comfort, energy demand, and household electricity expenditure in Saudi Arabia using a scenario-based modeling approach. The analysis is conducted by utilizing a multi-sector integrated assessment model (IAM) for Sa...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Techno-Economic Comparison of Energy System Configurations for Direct Air Capture in Saudi Arabia

21 January 2026

Direct air capture (DAC) is anticipated to play a pivotal role in Saudi Arabia’s net-zero strategy, particularly in offsetting residua...₂/year. Our analysis indicates that the LCOD ranges from $285 to $826 per tonne, with heat source selection emerging as the dominant cost driver.

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

Decarbonizing Saudi Arabia’s Energy and Industrial Sectors: An Integrated Techno-Economic Assessment of CCS

18 January 2026

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

The Global South’s Sustainable Finance Gap: The Role of Financial Development

14 January 2026

Despite the substantial growth of the sustainable debt market in recent years, it remains heavily concentrated in advanced economies, often referred to as the “Global North.” In 2024, sustainable debt issuance in the Global North has reached 2.6% of GDP, nearly four times the level in...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Domestic Oil Price Adjustments and Fiscal Reforms in an Oil-Exporting Economy: How Can They Improve Welfare and Employment?

12 January 2026

This paper asks how, in an oil-exporting country with many foreign workers, increasing the domestic oil price can improve the welfare and the employment of nationals. We look at budget-neutral fiscal reforms where an increase in the price finances either cash transfers to households, ...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Design Elements for Effective Compliance Markets: Insights From Existing Emissions Trading Schemes

07 January 2026

A growing number of emerging economies are developing emissions trading schemes (ETSs), which are considered among the most effective climate policy instruments. There are diverse ways to design and operate an ETS. This KAPSARC Discussion Paper analyzes the major design choices involv...

KAPSARC journal article

Lessons from an International Review of Successful and Unsuccessful Consumer Energy Subsidy Reforms

07 January 2026

Climate & Sustainability

Instant Insight

Convergence and Divergence in Global Agriculture, Forest, and Land-Use Emission Estimates

07 January 2026

This Instant Insight provides a review of two key global datasets that can be used to track GHG emissions and removals from the AFOLU sector. The first dataset, FAOSTAT, is developed and maintained by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN and builds on data reported by count...

KAPSARC journal article

Strategic Prioritization of Carbon Capture and Utilization Pathways for Saudi Arabia’s Circular Carbon Economy

07 January 2026

KAPSARC journal article

Impact of Temperature on Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in Saudi Arabia

07 January 2026

Utilities & Renewables

Methodology paper

21 December 2025

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are drop-in alternatives to conventional jet-A1 fuel that require no changes to aircraft or fueling infrastructure. Widely recognized by regulators, airlines, and industry groups, SAFs are central to aviation’s decarbonization. Recent years have seen ...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Differentiating Upstream Crude Oil Carbon Intensities in a Net-Zero World

21 December 2025

This study examines how leveraging upstream carbon intensities as a policy lever could reshape crude oil market dynamics, competitiveness, and asset stranding under net-zero pathways. Using GCAM-KSA with harmonised, field-level CI data, we simulate scenarios with uniform and heterogen...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Cement in a Circular Carbon Economy: Implementing Carbon Capture and Utilization Options in Saudi Arabia

15 December 2025

Saudi Arabia’s cement sector is large, regionally concentrated, and pivotal to Vision 2030 delivery, but it is also highly carbon intensive. In this study, we estimate sectoral emissions and capture potential using a facility-level screening approach linked to prospective storage and ...

KAPSARC journal article

Regression Analysis of Energy Rebound Effects From Connected Autonomous Vehicles: Urban–rural and Income Heterogeneity

10 December 2025

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

The Cost of Water in a Desert: How Much Can Saudi Arabia Save From Water Loss Reduction?

09 December 2025

Saudi Arabia is an arid nation experiencing a severe shortage of freshwater, which necessitates reliance on costly, energy-intensive seawater desalination to meet rapidly growing residential demand. Per-capita domestic water use is very high by international standards, reflecting both...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Assessing the 2030 Technical Potential and Costs of Energy-From- Waste with Carbon Capture and Storage (WECCS) in Saudi Arabia

08 December 2025

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a central pillar of Saudi Arabia’s pathway to net zero under the circular carbon economy (CCE) framework. Energy-from-waste with carbon capture and storage (WECCS) provides an integrated route that links waste management with engineered removals, yet it...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Circular Carbon Economy in the Petrochemical Sector in Saudi Arabia: A Review of CO2 Utilization Potential Pathways

07 December 2025

This study evaluates the potential for CO2 utilization and recycling in Saudi Arabia’s petrochemical sector, with particular emphasis on its alignment with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 and the broader framework of the circular carbon economy (CCE). It draws on published scientific litera...

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Measuring Carbon Circularity in the World’s Major Forest Economies: The CCE Index Forest Industry Lens

03 December 2025

This KAPSARC Commentary uses the KAPSARC’s Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) Index methodology to construct an aggregate score called the Forest Industry Lens (FIL), which measures the carbon circularity of the world’s major forest industry nations in the four areas of the CCE: reduce, re...

Utilities & Renewables

Commentary

Demand Response Programs: Concepts, Benefits, and Opportunities for the GCC Region

09 December 2025

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region is undergoing a transformational shift in its power sector, driven by ambitious national visions. Policies deployed in the region aim to enhance energy sustainability, integrate renewable energy sources, and improve the electricity sector’s ef...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Methodology paper

A Machine Learning Framework for Global Energy Demand Prediction: Cross-Country Analysis

26 November 2025

This study presents a comprehensive machine learning approach to model final energy consumption patterns across approximately 150 countries using Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost). Unlike traditional econometric methods that rely on point estimates, this approach provides probabilis...

Climate & Sustainability

Report

From Waste to Removal: The Policy Potential of Ex Situ Enhanced Mineralization in Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom

25 November 2025

Ex situ enhanced mineralisation (ESEM) is a durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approach that reacts CO₂ with alkaline industrial residues to form stable carbonates while producing usable materials. Drawing on recent analysis from Saudi Arabia, this paper assesses the technical poten...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

To Auction or to Give for Free: Does the Allowance Allocation Regime Matter for Renewable Deployment in the EU ETS?

24 November 2025

Phase III of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) marked a shift in the power sector from free allocation to auctioning as the default method of distributing allowances. To ease the transition, some lower-income countries were granted derogations that allowed them to r...

KAPSARC journal article

Introduction of Electric Vehicles in Saudi Arabia: Impacts on Oil Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Electricity Demand

23 November 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Weighting Performance of Airport Location Sustainability Criteria: An Expert-based Analysis

23 November 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Bridging the Divide: How Unequal Carbon Dioxide Removal Deployment Threatens Climate Equity and Global Mitigation Feasibility

19 November 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Tech Firms and the Renewable Energy Sector: Exploring the Moderating Effects of Institutional Ownership on Financial Connectedness

19 November 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Elasticity of Energy Substitution in Saudi Arabia's Industrial Sector

19 November 2025

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Scaling Up BEV Charging and Battery Capacity in Saudi Arabia

18 November 2025

This study estimates the investment requirements for passenger battery electric vehicle (BEV) battery manufacturing and charging infrastructure in Saudi Arabia from 2026 to 2060 under two adoption scenarios: Ambition and Ambition_plus. Scenario-based modeling is used to project BEV st...

Utilities & Renewables

KAPSARC journal article

Is the Single-Buyer Model a Barrier to Clean Energy? Empirical Evidence on Decarbonization and Renewable Energy Supply in 63 Developing Countries

18 November 2025

This paper compares the energy transition performance of the Single-Buyer Model (SBM) and the Competitive Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) in 63 emerging and developing countries. Using propensity score matching and panel data analysis, we analyze renewable energy share in supply an...

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

Breaking the Energy Efficiency Paradox in Buildings: Insights for Unleashing Benefits in Saudi Arabia

18 November 2025

This paper explores the economics of energy efficiency in buildings in Saudi Arabia, with a focus on the energy efficiency paradox. Despite the well-documented benefits of energy efficiency measures, such as lower energy bills and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, adoption rates have ...

IAEE Conference to Kick Off in Riyadh in February 2023

Climate & Sustainability

Methodology paper

Urban Emissions Modeling Using the Metropolis Multi-Agent Framework: The Case of Riyadh City

12 November 2025

Urban mobility-related emissions are an increasing concern in rapidly expanding cities, highlighting the need for robust methods to assess and mitigate their environmental impact. This study develops a multi-agent model to estimate emissions in Riyadh city, which serves as the primary...

KAPSARC journal article

Context Matters: Life Cycle Emissions and Policy Implications of Electric Vehicles in Evolving Carbon-intensive Energy Systems

11 November 2025

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

AI and Green Jobs in the Saudi Labor Market

11 November 2025

This paper explores the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and the green transition in shaping the future of work in Saudi Arabia. Using an IMF-developed occupational framework of AI exposure and complementarity, distributional risks among the native workforce are a...

KAPSARC journal article

Housing, Travel, and Energy Spatial-temporal Simulation of Riyadh: Impacts of the New Murabba Project

08 November 2025

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Nudging the Kingdom’s Kilowatts: Evidence from Saudi Households

29 October 2025

We conducted a six-month randomized controlled trial with 62,750 Saudi households assigned to one of four behavioral treatments: (i) peer-to-peer comparisons, (ii) peer comparisons with energy-saving tips, (iii) high-alert messages, and (iv) a bundled intervention. Some treatments red...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Bridging Analytics and Policy: AI-Enabled Dynamic Line Rating and Large Language Model-Assisted Recommendations to Optimize Power Sector Planning and Operation

29 October 2025

This paper introduces a novel framework that bridges analytics, prediction, explanation, and optimization to support power sector planning and operation. The framework leverages large language models (LLMs) to assist experts in formulating policy recommendations. At its core, the fram...

Discussion paper

Assessing Passenger Car Emissions in Saudi Arabia: A Life Cycle Approach to Energy and Temporal Grid Dynamics

28 October 2025

Decarbonizing transport is central to global climate goals. Addressing this challenge requires a multifaceted approach, yet dominant policy narratives continue to promote battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as a universally optimal solution. This study assesses that narrative by evaluati...

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Renewable Energy Certificates in the Saudi Electricity System

28 October 2025

A renewable energy certificate (REC) is a tradable instrument that represents 1 megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity generated from renewable sources. In addition to the electricity itself, a REC embodies the non-energy attributes of that generation, such as reductions in greenhouse gas...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Elasticity of Energy Substitution in Saudi Arabia’s Industrial Sector

28 October 2025

Industrial activities account for a significant share of global energy consumption and carbon emissions, so understanding the elasticity of substitution between fuels in the industrial sector is crucial for designing effective energy and environmental policies. This study examines the...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Oil Derivatives Positioning amid Trade Policy Upheaval: Insights from the Week Following Liberation Day

27 October 2025

In the week following the US "Liberation Day", interactions among market participants produced a rare smile-shaped oil futures curve. Independent producers sold June and December contracts, while consumers and physical speculators bought farther-dated ones. As prices collapsed, some f...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Geologic Hydrogen and the Future of Clean Energy: Global Trends and Saudi Arabia’s Potential

27 October 2025

Meeting the world’s rising energy demand while simultaneously addressing climate change is one of the defining challenges of our time. As populations grow and economies develop, energy consumption is projected to rise significantly. OPEC, for instance, projects a 23% increase in prima...

KAPSARC journal article

Energy Quantamentals: To Follow the Crowd or To Fade the Extremes?

23 October 2025

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Too Many of the Same: Occupational Crowding, AI, and Wages

21 October 2025

Saudi Arabia’s transition toward a diversified and knowledge-based economy creates a strategic window to position artificial intelligence (AI) as a driver of productivity, innovation, and high-quality employment. Using unique administrative data on Saudi workers, this study provides e...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Methodology paper

Predicting Provincial Economic Activity in Saudi Arabia: The Case of the Eastern Province

21 October 2025

This study employs advanced econometric modeling to generate short-term projections of regional economic activity (gross value added, or GVA) in Saudi Arabia, focusing on the Eastern Province, which is the largest in terms of economic activity in the Kingdom. A combined forecasting fr...

KAPSARC journal article

Closing the Clean Cooking Gap in Ghana and Kenya: Access Trajectories, Costs, and Policy

21 October 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Can Efficiency Offset Emissions Stemming from Urban Growth? Prospects for Saudi Buildings

16 October 2025

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Embedding Sustainability in Airport Development: A Framework for Saudi Arabia

15 October 2025

Airports are critical infrastructure, and the selection of their locations has a significant impact on long-term sustainability. Saudi Arabia has recently embarked on an ambitious infrastructure development program to support its objectives of economic diversification, global connecti...

KAPSARC journal article

How Does Disaster Risk Impact Fiscal Sustainability and Inequality?

15 October 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Tourism and Air Transport Growth in Saudi Arabia

10 October 2025

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Driving the Future: How Connected Autonomous Vehicles Reshape Travel and Energy Demand in Urban and Rural Areas – An Empirical Modeling Approach

09 October 2025

The rapid evolution of connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) is ushering in a transformative era in transportation, with profound implications for travel behavior, fuel efficiency, and mobility dynamics in both urban and rural areas.

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

From Metrics to Markets: Evaluating the Role of ESG Ratings in Steering Sustainable Capital Flows

06 October 2025

This paper critically evaluates the role of ESG ratings in steering sustainable capital flows, examining both corporate and sovereign contexts. It reviews the methodologies of major rating providers highlights divergences that undermine comparability and consistency. The study explore...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Aligning Vehicle Electrification With Power Sector Transitions: Life Cycle Insights Across Diverse Grids

05 October 2025

This study examines how the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) vary across electricity systems with different carbon intensities, and how those emissions evolve in response to announced national energy transition initiatives. Using a temporal...

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Energy Efficiency: Measuring Fish by How Well They Climb Trees

02 October 2025

Energy efficiency is a crucial component of sustainable development and resource conservation. Policies and actions aimed at improving energy efficiency play a critical role in reducing energy consumption, mitigating environmental impact, and fostering economic growth. However,...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Methodology paper

Measuring Quarterly Economic Activity Across Saudi Arabia’s Provinces Using Advanced Methods and Data Sources

02 October 2025

Access to province-level key macroeconomic indicators is essential for identifying disparities and potential areas for policy intervention, monitoring the coherence of economic development across provinces, and assessing the impact of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiatives on p...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Dividends of Expanding Clean-Cooking Fuel Access: Rural-Urban Evidence on Infant, Maternal, and Nutrition Gains

02 October 2025

Access to clean cooking fuels is essential for improving health, equity, and environmental sustainability globally. Despite ongoing policy efforts, a large number of households, particularly in developing countries, continue to rely on polluting cooking fuels, which contributes to adv...

KAPSARC journal article

An Expert Opinion-based Perspective on Emerging Policy and Economic Research Priorities for Advancing the Low-carbon Hydrogen Sector

01 October 2025

KAPSARC journal article

A Perspective on the Evolving Plug-in Electric Vehicle Landscape Amid Trade Tariffs and Strategic Responses

30 September 2025

KAPSARC journal article

30 September 2025

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Tourism Expansion and Air Transport in Saudi Arabia: A Case Study on Growth, Connectivity, and Efficiency

29 September 2025

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 outlines a transformative agenda centered on infrastructure development and the expansion of the tourism sector, supported by strategies such as the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, the National Tourism Strategy, and the Saudi Aviation Strategy. Wh...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

China’s Electric Truck Boom: A Double-Edged Sword for Oil Demand and Power Supply

28 September 2025

China’s rapid shift toward electric vehicles (EVs), especially in the heavy-duty trucking sector, is reshaping its oil consumption landscape. While the initial wave of electrification primarily impacted gasoline demand through widespread adoption of light-duty EVs, recent momentum in ...

KAPSARC journal article

The Limits of Energy Conservation: Why Doubling Current Energy Efficiency Progress Is No Easy Feat

28 September 2025

Commentary

A Commentary on the 2025 IEA Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa Report

27 September 2025

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa report, which reviews historical trends in the electricity sector and projects its developments to 2035. Given Saudi Arabia’s size and importance in the reg...

KAPSARC journal article

Mapping the AI Landscape in Buildings Energy Research: Temporal Dynamics and Global Disparities Using Topic Modeling

26 September 2025

KAPSARC journal article

National Innovation Capacity and the Drivers of Energy Efficiency R&D in the OECD

26 September 2025

KAPSARC journal article

The Economics of Off-shore Wind-based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia

26 September 2025

KAPSARC Identifies Hydrogen Opportunities in Saudi Arabia

KAPSARC journal article

Designing Effective Hydrogen Markets: Policy Recommendations from Electricity and Gas Market Reform

25 September 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Uncertainty In Modelling the Demand for Minerals from the Energy Sector at a Country-level: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

24 September 2025

Utilities & Renewables

Commentary

Decoding European RFNBO and Low Carbon Fuels Regulations: Implications for Hydrogen Production from Electricity in Saudi Arabia

21 September 2025

Previous recent publications from KAPSARC have explored the possibilities for a global framework for low-emission hydrogen and have identified research priorities. Building on these, this commentary presents key principles of the European Union (EU) hydrogen certification and derives ...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

A Perspective on the Evolving Plug-in Electric Vehicle Landscape Amid Trade Tariffs and Strategic Responses

15 September 2025

Various explanations have been proposed for the recent slowdown in the growth of global plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales. Considerable uncertainty also remains regarding future PEV adoption rates due to evolving consumer incentives and newly announced Western tariffs on Chinese PE...

KAPSARC journal article

Macro-financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money

01 September 2025

KAPSARC journal article

27 August 2025

To counter phantom oil, ad hoc responses are not enough; what is needed is a systematic, coherent framework that integrates technical tools, legal enforcement, institutional capacity, and international cooperation into a phased, adaptive strategy. Isolated interventions—such as fuel m...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

The Role of Ownership Structure in Oil and Gas Production After the Paris Agreement

21 August 2025

This paper investigates the role of state ownership in oil and gas production after the Paris Agreement, comparing national oil companies (NOCs) with international oil companies (IOCs). Using firm-level panel data spanning from 2010 to 2021 in a difference-in-differences setting, it w...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

The Rising Cost of Cooling: Regional Energy Futures in a Warming Saudi Arabia

21 August 2025

This study quantifies the impact of a warming climate on residential cooling demand in Saudi Arabia, examining four regions through 2060. Utilizing region-specific electricity demand models and IPCC temperature pathways, we find that a 1°C increase in average temperature could raise e...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

China’s Vehicle Trade-In Subsidy: Impact, Cost-Effectiveness, and Barriers to Electric Vehicle Purchase

21 August 2025

of trade-ins that would not have occurred in its absence – and analyze its cost-effectiveness. Results indicate that approximately 44% of respondent trade-ins were directly attributable to the subsidy, with a greater impact observed among lower-income consumers. On average, the subsid...

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

Future of Residential Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia and the Role of Energy Efficiency in 2060’s Net Zero Pledge

21 August 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Navigating the energy transition in the EU: Renewables, critical raw materials and emerging vulnerabilities

14 August 2025

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Charting the Path to Net Zero in the Skies?

10 August 2025

As the aviation industry faces mounting pressure to reduce its carbon footprint, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has emerged as a pivotal component in the pathway to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), SAF could...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

Social Cost of Carbon: The Elusive Quest for the Right Value to Guide Policy

06 August 2025

The social cost of carbon (SCC) assigns a monetary value to the economic and societal costs of accumulating CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, making it a key metric for shaping climate policy. In particular, it gives guidance for evaluating whether the benefits of a policy, regulation,...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Assessing the Technical Potential of Ex Situ Enhanced Mineralization in Saudi Arabia

03 August 2025

Ex Situ Enhanced Mineralization (ESEM) has emerged as a viable CO2 utilization pathway and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy, leveraging industrial byproducts and silicate minerals to permanently sequester CO₂ in stable carbonate forms. Saudi Arabia, with its vast industrial lands...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Global Demand for Materials for the CCS Industry: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

03 August 2025

In this paper, we examine the materials required for the deployment of the targeted, and projected levels of CCS across the globe and for a case study of Saudi Arabia. We examine the materials required for the construction and operation of CCS capture plants on both power generation a...

KAPSARC journal article

Breaking Down Barriers: Emerging Issues on the Pathway to Full-scale Electrification of the Light-duty Vehicle Sector

31 July 2025

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Rethinking the Oil Futures Market: Insights from Commodity Futures Literature and Speculators’ Perspectives

27 July 2025

This article examines speculative activity in the oil futures market and revisits key insights from the broader commodity futures literature. We trace the evolution of the oil futures market over the past four decades through the lens of speculators, offering a nuanced perspective on ...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

The Impact of Temperature on Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in Saudi Arabia

27 July 2025

This study explores the intricate relationship between rising temperatures and energy demand in Saudi Arabia. By employing advanced econometric modeling, it quantifies the impact of temperature changes on consumption patterns across electricity and non-electricity sectors. Simulating ...

Utilities & Renewables

Data Insight

Trends in Global Solar Photovoltaic Installation in 2024

27 July 2025

Oil & Gas

Report

The New Plastics Economy: An Opportunity for the Middle East

24 July 2025

This joint report by Strategy& and KAPSARC explores how this new plastics economy presents an opportunity for Middle East countries, in particular those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), to become a global hub for circular plastics. By linking plastic waste supply from Asia w...

Transportation & Infrastructure

KAPSARC journal article

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Jet Fuel Production and Consumption in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

24 July 2025

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

Applying multi-criteria decision analysis in the assessment of carbon dioxide removal technologies for Saudi Arabia

22 July 2025

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

16 July 2025

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Is the Single-Buyer Model a Barrier to Clean Energy Deployment? Empirical Evidence on Decarbonization and Renewable Energy Supply in 63 Developing Countries

13 July 2025

This paper compares renewable energy share in generation and carbon emission intensity of the Single-Buyer Model (SBM) and the Competitive Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) in 63 emerging and developing countries. Using propensity score matching and panel data analysis, we analyze ho...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

The Art of Endurance Oil Sanctions and the Strategic Adaptations of Sanctioned Oil- Exporting States

13 July 2025

This paper examines the evolution and impact of oil-related sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, focusing on their economic and political consequences. It compares how each country has adapted to sanctions based on differences in economic structure, global alliances, and strategi...

Oil & Gas

Instant Insight

The U.S.-China Tariff Conflict and the LNG Market: Modelling Consequences Until 2030

08 July 2025

To answer it, the author ran the World Gas Model developed by Nexant using three Scenarios . The first Scenario is a baseline scenario developed by Nexant, describing business-as-usual development of the world gas market as if no spat between China and the U.S. took place. In Scenario...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Assessing the Potential of Emerging CO2 Utilization Pathways in Saudi Arabia: A Multi-criteria Decision Analysis Approach

12 August 2025

Utilities & Renewables

Workshop brief

Watt’s Next? The Future of Electricity Market Design and Regulation

03 July 2025

In recent years, power markets have experienced significant price volatility, ranging from record-high peaks to negative prices. While such spikes are an inherent feature of marginal pricing, they have nevertheless sparked concerns over windfall profits and the fair allocation of cost...

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Governmental Carbon Crediting Mechanisms: Global Experiences and Insights for Saudi Arabia

03 July 2025

This paper examines governmental carbon crediting mechanisms, offering a focused look at three programs that initially operated independently of compliance schemes such as emissions trading systems or carbon taxes. The paper aims to provide insights into crediting mechanisms similar i...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Changing Tides: Strategic Implications of the New Draft IMO Net-Zero Framework for the Maritime Sector

30 June 2025

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Why Doubling Current Energy Efficiency Progress Is No Easy Feat

30 June 2025

aditional crude oil refinery production and economic models adopt linear approximations to facilitate linear programming applications for the purposes of operational planning, scheduling, and/or logistics to optimize product yields, margins, or other performance metrics of interest, u...

KAPSARC journal article

The Response of Global Oil Inventories to Supply Shocks

16 June 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Analyzing The Interplay of Urbanization, Economic Development, and Seaborne Trade: Revealing Their Connection to Urban Resilience in Saudi Arabia

15 June 2025

Climate & Sustainability

Instant Insight

Comparing the Latest 2024 Estimates of Methane Emissions for Saudi Arabia

11 June 2025

Methane is a very potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and the second-largest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide (IPCC 2021). Over a 100-year period, 1 ton of methane can trap as much heat as almost 30 tons of carbon dioxide (IPCC 2021). Therefore, methane emission reductions a...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Decarbonization Pathways for Asphalt Pavement Mixtures in Saudi Arabia: A Life Cycle Assessment Approach

11 June 2025

This study conducts a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) of asphalt mixtures in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). It focuses on assessing the environmental impacts of asphalt mixtures produced with and without reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP), as well as the use of warm mix a...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Assessing the Feasibility and Sustainability of Urban Air Mobility in Saudi Arabia

02 June 2025

Urban air taxis promise a revolution in transportation. However, the question of their immediate feasibility demands a complex answer, requiring a balance of technical capabilities, cost-effectiveness, operational efficiency, regulatory hurdles, and public acceptance. Urban air mobili...

KAPSARC journal article

Life Cycle Environmental and Cost Analysis of SUVs: a Saudi Arabia Case Study

01 June 2025

KAPSARC journal article

A Perspective On Emerging Policy and Economics Research Priorities for Enabling Low-carbon Trucking

01 June 2025

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Integrating Fairness Principles into Global Net-Zero Targets A Systematic Exploration of Fair Climate Policy

01 June 2025

Equity is a cornerstone of international climate policy, yet operationalizing “fair” burden-sharing remains challenging. Here we present a comprehensive effort-sharing framework that systematically spans a broad spectrum of principles, rather than limiting analysis to a few discrete ...

Climate & Sustainability

Workshop brief

Co-Creation Workshop on National and Global Net-Zero Strategies

29 May 2025

January 2025, KAPSARC, in collaboration with the ELEVATE project funded by the European Union, conducted a “Co-Creation Workshop on National and Global Net-Zero Strategies.” The event brought together policymakers, industry professionals, think tanks, and academics to integrate scien...

Futures Magazine

Balancing The Value Of Plug-in Electric Vehicle Subsidies 

28 May 2025

While subsidies increase sales in the medium term, they can pose significant challenges to overall cost-effectiveness.

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Aligning Urban Growth with Climate Goals: Emission Drivers and Policy Responses in Saudi Arabia’s Building Sector

27 May 2025

This study combines an econometric analysis and a Monte Carlo simulation to explore the drivers of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions in the Saudi building sector, with a particular focus on energy efficiency. Historical data from 1990 to 2022 are used to estimate the effects o...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

The Green Transition and Tech Firms’ Financial Performance: Insights from Patent Data

27 May 2025

The twin green and digital transitions are shaping the global business environment. However, academic research exploring the financial implications of the green-digital nexus remains limited. This paper explores the financial implications of a key mechanism within the green-digital n...

Book/book chapter

Demand-side Modeling of Energy

22 May 2025

This entry gives a thorough overview of the concept of energy demand, including its forms and the different consumer groups associated with it. It outlines the theoretical underpinnings of how energy demand is shaped, and discusses the significance a... Read Full Book Chapter Here

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

22 May 2025

Seaports are crucial for facilitating maritime trade and integrating countries into the global economy. Understanding port business dynamics, including trade and the impact on bunker energy demand, is essential for a nation’s competitiveness. Saudi Arabia’s ports are strategically sit...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Methodology paper

Improving Predictive Ability of Macroeconometric Models Using Coefficient Averaging

22 May 2025

approach to enhance KGEMM’s predictive ability. The framework includes the consideration of theoretically consistent estimates from single equation cointegration methods and Vector Autoregressive models for averaging after a set of prediction accuracy metrics widely used in empirica...

Futures Magazine

Guiding Domestic Energy And Economic Transformations In A Transitioning World

21 May 2025

Energy economists gathered in Riyadh to discuss the region’s unique opportunities and economy diversification challenges of energy transition.

Futures Magazine

How OPEC Stabilizes Oil Prices, Despite Information Gaps

21 May 2025

Research shows just how volatile oil prices would have been without OPEC’s recent interventions.

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Race to the Top: Harmonizing Regulations for Geological CO₂ Storage Under Article 6

20 May 2025

The urgent need to mitigate climate change underscores the importance of achieving reliable and widespread deployment of geological carbon storage. This discussion paper highlights the role of robust and harmonized state regulations in ensuring the environmental integrity of CO2 stor...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Breaking Down Barriers: Emerging Issues on the Pathway to Full-scale Electrification of the Light-Duty Vehicle Sector

20 May 2025

A key pathway being considered worldwide to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector is the complete transition to electric vehicles (EVs). In this research, we assess potential barriers and challenges to fully electrifying the LDV sector. We u...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Report

Saudi Arabia’s Transport Sector in Transition: Life Cycle Perspectives

06 October 2025

Transportation is a fundamental driver of economic growth but also a significant contributor to environmental challenges such as air pollution and climate change. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has set ambitious objectives to diversify and decarbonize its economy in order to achie...

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Inexpensive Renewable Electricity Enables Saudi Arabia’s Fuel Price Reforms

20 May 2025

Saudi Arabia is currently implementing fuel price reforms. The reforms are being executed in phases, where the ultimate goal is to have fuel prices approach their market equivalent values. Using the KAPSARC Energy Model, this analysis shows that such reforms would have been more cost...

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Competing in a Carbon-Constrained World: Exploring the Emerging Concept of Carbon Competitiveness

18 May 2025

The interplay between climate policies and economic competitiveness is increasing rapidly. In response, the concept of carbon competitiveness is emerging as a crucial factor that is shaping the future of global trade and climate action. The central challenge lies in balancing the nee...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

The Dynamics of Variable Renewable Energy Integration: A Multi-Dimensional Framework for Future Power Systems

18 May 2025

This paper examines the impacts of integrating a high share of variable renewable energy (VRE) on power systems and markets, proposing a multi-dimensional framework to analyze its technical, economic, and regulatory challenges. A structured literature review and topic modeling are em...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Towards a Global Framework for Low-Emission Hydrogen: Certification and Trade in International Collaboration

18 May 2025

The international certification and trade of low-emission hydrogen are critical for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy industry and transportation. However, fragmented regulatory frameworks across jurisdictions pose significant barriers to scaling global trade and inve...

Book/book chapter

Financing the Decarbonization of Hard-to- Abate Sectors Trends, Issues, and Ways Forward

18 May 2025

The decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors, such as steel, cement, petrochemicals, and heavy transportation, is essential to achieving global net-zero targets and maintaining financial stability. Despite a significant increase in global transition... Read Full Book Chapter Here

Futures Magazine

Can Converting Plastic To Oil Solve The Plastic Crisis?

14 May 2025

Managing the global problem of plastic waste requires innovative approaches. Plastic-to-oil technologies offer a promising solution by converting a waste product into a valuable commodity.

Futures Magazine

Certifying The Transition To Clean Hydrogen Production

14 May 2025

The rapid rollout of blue hydrogen demands international standards to certify the capture and storage of Co2 generated during production.

Futures Magazine

How Can The MENA Region Navigate Water Scarcity?

07 May 2025

A KAPSARC study shows regional policymakers how different strategies would affect water, energy and food activities under a socioeconomic framework.

Futures Magazine

Charged Possibilities: Exploring The Potential Of Regional Electricity Trade

07 May 2025

As Arab countries link their grids, electricity trading can bring major savings and pave the way for a green transition.

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Decarbonizing Saudi Arabia’s Transportation: Insights from LCA Case Studies

05 May 2025

The transport sector is vital to Saudi Arabia’s socioeconomic landscape, yet it contributes approximately 22% of the nation’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As the Kingdom diversifies its economy beyond the oil sector, adopting sustainable transport solutions is essential for ...

KAPSARC journal article

Integrating Life Cycle Assessment and Avoid-shift-improve Frameworks for Sustainable Mobility Transition in India

01 May 2025

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

KAPSARC journal article

Climate Change and Carbon Policy: A Story of Optimal Green Macroprudential and Capital Flow Management

01 May 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

30 April 2025

Futures Magazine

Transforming Residential Energy Use For A Sustainable Future

30 April 2025

A curated collection of research papers looks at the challenges, benefits, and future directions of residential buildings’ energy efficiency.

Futures Magazine

Navigating Carbon Circularity: Lessons From Southeast Asia

30 April 2025

A detailed assessment of Southeast Asian countries highlights the successes and challenges in moving toward carbon-neutral economies.

KAPSARC journal article

Toward AV-CAV Deployment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A Readiness Assessment Based on Expert Feedback

29 April 2025

Utilities & Renewables

Instant Insight

The “Resolutionary” Shift: The EU’s Transition to 15-Minute Clearing in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

27 April 2025

In an effort to enhance grid stability, support the deployment of renewable energy, and improve overall electricity market performance, the European Union (EU) is preparing to implement a significant change – the introduction of a 15-minute Market Time Unit (MTU) across its interconn...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Are There Adequate Materials and Land Resources for the Saudi Power Sector to Achieve Net Zero by 2060?

27 April 2025

Saudi Arabia has committed to net-zero (NZ) greenhouse gas emissions by 2060. This requires substantial emission reductions across key sectors, including the power generation sector. We assess the technological options, critical mineral requirements, renewable energy resource require...

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Myths and Mysteries About Speculation in the Oil Market

27 April 2025

The article provides unique quantitative insights about highly secretive and poorly understood speculation in the oil market. To demystify the behavior of speculators, we look at the problem from five different angles. First, we explain how the presence of large over-the-counter (OTC...

KAPSARC journal article

Cross-Border Electricity Trading in the GCC Countries, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq: Hourly Market Coupling or Bilateral Agreements?

26 April 2025

The Green Transition and Tech Firms&#8217; Financial Performance: Insights From Patent Data

KAPSARC journal article

The Green Transition and Tech Firms' Financial Performance: Insights From Patent Data

23 April 2025

Futures Magazine

Non-oil Productivity Growth To Propel Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Success

23 April 2025

Insight into the drivers of Saudi Arabia’s international competitiveness will help the country meet its strategic targets.

Futures Magazine

Saudi Arabia’s Pivotal Role In Reducing Global Maritime Emissions And Decarbonizing Maritime Transport

23 April 2025

How the Kingdom’s strategic location, resources, and commitment to hydrogen infrastructure could fuel the transition of the maritime sector.

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Toward Autonomous and Connected Autonomous Vehicle (AV-CAV) Deployment in Saudi Arabia: A Readiness Assessment Based on Expert Feedback

21 April 2025

The deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) presents significant opportunities to transform urban mobility, reduce emissions, and enhance transportation efficiency. This study evaluates the readiness of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) for AV...

Oil & Gas

Report

Advancing Plastic Waste Recycling in the GCC: Policies, Technologies, and Economic Opportunities

21 April 2025

This report aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of plastic waste disposal, recycling rates and the recycling infrastructure gaps in the GCC countries, along with encouraging policies to capture the untapped potential of the recycling sector, and transition from current disposal-...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Emerging Policy and Economics Research Priorities for Enabling Low-Carbon Trucking

16 April 2025

Trucking plays a crucial role in sustaining economic activity worldwide, yet its current path of carbon emissions is out of sync with the net-zero goals set by governments globally. As a result, identifying key energy economic and policy research priorities for low-carbon trucking has...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Limiting Carbon Dioxide Removal Could Exacerbate Global Economic Inequality

16 April 2025

The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius (°C), and ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels, places significant emphasis on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. However, the global landscape for CDR deployment remains uneven, with s...

Futures Magazine

Can Carbon Capture Advance The Race Toward Decarbonized Power Generation?

16 April 2025

Capturing and storing CO2 from gas power plants could be a more cost-effective way of reducing emissions than nuclear power in many regions depending on a number of factors.

Futures Magazine

Lower-cost Pathways To Achieve Saudi Arabia’s Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets

16 April 2025

A market-wide cap on carbon emissions instead of a prescriptive energy transition could achieve the same reductions at much lower cost to industry and consumers.

Resilience in Transition: Skills in a Decarbonizing Labor Market

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Report

Resilience in Transition: Skills in a Decarbonizing Labor Market

10 April 2025

To better measure job resilience, we use the Transition Risk Index (TRI), which combines sectoral carbon exposure, occupational adaptability, and labor market frictions. Between 2019 and 2022, Saudi Arabia’s TRI improved significantly. With the right policies—sh... Read Full Report Here

Futures Magazine

A New Route To A Sustainable Aviation Industry

09 April 2025

Analysis of emerging trends in aviation identifies critical areas requiring further research to enable aviation climate action.

Futures Magazine

Exploring The Impact Of Climate Change Policies On Energy Affordability

09 April 2025

Stricter climate policies are exacerbating energy poverty in developed countries. How will transitioning impact the world’s poorest nations?

Transportation & Infrastructure

Data Insight

The Fast Uberization Trend in China’s Road Freight Transport Sector

08 April 2025

Road freight transport is a leading oil consumer and one of the most hard-to-abate sectors (IEA 2017; McKinnon 2018). In most developing countries, the sector is characterized by excessive market fragmentation, where the majority of the market supply is from small carriers, such as o...

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Ground-Source Air Conditioning: A Potential Solution for Saudi Arabia’s Building Sector

08 April 2025

Energy consumption for cooling in Saudi Arabia is notably high due to the country’s extreme climatic conditions, with air conditioning accounting for a significant portion of electricity demand. Addressing this challenge requires innovative solutions that align with Saudi Arabia’s Vi...

KAPSARC journal article

Costs of Switching Fuels and Manufacturing Processes for Construction Materials Companies in Saudi Arabia

05 April 2025

Futures Magazine

Critical Minerals In The Energy Transition

03 April 2025

Robust global supply chains for minerals play a pivotal role in the envisioned electrification future.

Futures Magazine

Pandemic Measures Reveal Routes For Cutting Commercial Airline Emissions

03 April 2025

Analyzing air travel disruption during the COVID-19 pandemic offers insights for improving aviation energy efficiency.

KAPSARC journal article

Evaluating Hypothetical Carbon Pricing for Saudi Arabia Using a Macroeconometric Modeling Framework

02 April 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Life Cycle Analysis of Decarbonization Strategies For Asphalt Mixtures in Saudi Arabia

31 March 2025

Utilities & Renewables

Instant Insight

The Rapid Expansion of Battery Energy Storage: Why the Saudi Market Is Booming

27 March 2025

Saudi Arabia has embraced utility-scale battery storage to the extent that it now ranks third globally in announced battery storage energy project capacities at 22 gigawatt-hours (GWh), behind only China and the United States (U.S.), and it aims to achieve 48 GWh of battery energy st...

Futures Magazine

How OPEC And Its Allies Have Helped Stabilize The Global Oil Market

26 March 2025

A new numerical model highlights the importance of OPEC’s actions and its cooperation with allied nations in reducing oil price volatility.

Futures Magazine

Saudi Arabia In Prime Position For Green Hydrogen

26 March 2025

Access to low-cost solar energy on a large scale means that the Kingdom could become a highly competitive global supplier of green hydrogen.

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

21 March 2025

Saudi Arabia’s mineral sector, long recognized as the third pillar of its economy alongside oil and petrochemicals, is becoming increasingly vital due to the global demand for minerals essential for the clean energy transition. Understanding the domestic and international implication...

Navigating Global Sustainability Reporting and Taxonomies: Insights for Saudi Arabia (1)

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Navigating Global Sustainability Reporting and Taxonomies: Insights for Saudi Arabia

21 March 2025

The paper explores the evolution of ESG reporting frameworks and taxonomies, focusing on their implications for Saudi Arabia. It discusses the challenges posed by global ESG practices, such as mandatory Scope 3 emissions reporting, materiality standards, and carbon management technol...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Energy Stewardship in a Transitioning World: Extending the Hydrocarbon Value Chain into Lithium Extraction in Saudi Arabia

21 March 2025

Energy security has long been central to the strategic and policy frameworks of governments worldwide, owing to the indispensable role of stable and sufficient energy supplies in underpinning economic growth, social welfare, and political stability. Historically, the pursuit of energ...

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

Lessons from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries’ Participation in the Clean Development Mechanism - journal article

20 March 2025

This study fills a gap in the literature on international carbon markets by identifying lessons learned from Clean Development Mechanism (CDM...
The article starts with a brief review of global and regional CDM literature, focused on distilling lessons learned from past experiences.

Futures Magazine

China Emerges As A Key Economic Partner In GCC Energy Sectors

19 March 2025

Chinese investments in the Gulf have facilitated the country’s growing influence in the region, as it continues to expand its soft power under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Futures Magazine

A Blueprint For A Green Economy Transition

19 March 2025

Exploring pathways to economic resilience, experts analyze the economies of 31 oil-exporting nations to identify the structural factors needed to diversify.

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Progress and Gaps in the Adoption of Clean Cooking Fuels in Africa – Policy Options for Ghana and Kenya

13 March 2025

Access to clean cooking fuels is vital for public health, environmental sustainability, and socio-economic development in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the key barriers to adopting clean cooking fuels in Ghana and Kenya, asking. Despite progress in urban areas toward liquef...

KAPSARC journal article

Long-term Hydro-economic Analysis Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply

13 March 2025

Futures Magazine

How To Ensure Energy Security On The Way To Net Zero

12 March 2025

To encourage more green investments, policy-makers need to prepare for the inevitability of global crises disrupting renewables supply.

Futures Magazine

Tapping Into Saudi Arabia’s Energy Demand

12 March 2025

Saudi Arabia's energy price reforms, made possible by historically low energy prices, have delivered substantial economic and environmental benefits.

Utilities & Renewables

Conference paper

Exploring Contractual Arrangements for Electricity Trading in the Middle East

09 March 2025

The Gulf region is undergoing an energy transition, and the electricity sector is crucial to its success. Since 2001, the region’s interconnections have allowed electricity trade among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Its continued interconnection expansion within the GC...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Carbon Markets and Saudi Arabia: A Review of Options and Analysis of Carbon Crediting Potential

09 March 2025

In response to the growing interest in carbon markets in Saudi Arabia, KAPSARC implemented a study to better characterize and understand the potential for carbon crediting in the Kingdom. The focus was specifically on providing estimates of the potential for supply and demand of carbo...

KAPSARC journal article

Pandemic, Ukraine, OPEC+ and Strategic Stockpiles: Taming the Oil Market in Turbulent Times

09 March 2025

Futures Magazine

The Carbon Footprint Of CCS-EOR Projects

05 March 2025

New economic formulas reveal how government support for capturing and storing CO2 in oilfields can reduce emissions while balancing energy production needs.

Futures Magazine

A Green Route To Bridge The Gender Pay Gap

05 March 2025

Jobs arising from Saudi Arabia’s green transition could reduce the gender salary discrepancy.

The Transportation, Housing, and Energy Implications of New Murabba Analysis and Forecast Using a Spatial Economic Time Series Simulation Model (1)

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

The Transportation, Housing, and Energy Implications of New Murabba Analysis and Forecast Using a Spatial Economic Time Series Simulation Model

04 March 2025

New Murrabba is a proposed megaproject involving residential, office, and retail development in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This project would encapsulate a portion of the expected rapid growth in the city into a unique and visionary development.

KAPSARC journal article

25 February 2025

Breaking Down Gasoline and Diesel Prices: The Role of Taxes, Oil, and Other Components (1)

Oil & Gas

Report

Breaking Down Gasoline and Diesel Prices: The Role of Taxes, Oil, and Other Components

24 February 2025

There is a common belief that fluctuations in gasoline and diesel retail prices are primarily driven by changes in oil prices (Bumpass, Ginn, and Tuttle 2015). While this is partly true, the fact is that gasoline and diesel prices are influenced by multiple components, which can redu...

Assessing ESG Impact in the Oil and Gas Industry: A Multi-Criteria Approach (1)

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Assessing ESG Impact in the Oil and Gas Industry: A Multi-Criteria Approach

24 February 2025

The paper titled “Assessing ESG Impact in the Oil & Gas Industry: A Multi-Criteria Approach” discusses the critical role of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles in the oil and gas sector, highlighting both challenges and opportunities. The document e...

Net-Zero Transition and Employment in Saudi Arabia’s Energy Sector

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Report

Net-Zero Transition and Employment in Saudi Arabia’s Energy Sector

24 February 2025

Saudi Arabia has engaged in a deep transformation of its hydrocarbon-based domestic energy system. The shift is in line with the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution commitment to reduce emissions by 278 million tons below a baseline by 2030, and ... Read full report here

Futures Magazine

Rethinking Emissions Through The Circular Carbon Economy

19 February 2025

Saudi Arabia is emerging as a case study for how various carbon management options could fit together to achieve net-zero emissions.

Futures Magazine

Highlighting Bumps In The Road To Energy Transition

19 February 2025

Investment in sustainable technologies required to meet Paris Agreement goals still falls short, especially in developing countries. How do we close the gaps?

Futures Magazine

Unravelling The Socioeconomic Effects Of Fuel Poverty

12 February 2025

Economists untangle the impact of rising household bills to guide government policy.

Futures Magazine

The US Inflation Reduction Act And What It Means For The Rest Of The World

12 February 2025

Wider adoption of energy-efficient technologies could reduce carbon emissions. These should stimulate innovation and reduce cost, creating a more sustainable energy market.

Saudi Arabia’s National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories: Overview, Progress, and Outlook (1)

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Saudi Arabia’s National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories: Overview, Progress, and Outlook

11 February 2025

This paper summarizes Saudi Arabia’s history with national greenhouse gas emission reporting, giving an overview and discussing the trends in emissions.

Assessing CO2 Emissions from Commercial Aviation in Saudi Arabia: A Methodological Approach (1)

Transportation & Infrastructure

Methodology paper

Assessing CO2 Emissions from Commercial Aviation in Saudi Arabia: A Methodological Approach

11 February 2025

Aviation is projected to grow in the coming decades, leading to increased fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, despite advancements in efficiency. As other sectors decarbonize, aviation’s impact on climate change may become more significant. Assessing aircraft perform...

Alternative Fuels and Processes for Saudi Construction Materials Companies (1)

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Alternative Fuels and Processes for Saudi Construction Materials Companies

03 March 2025

Producing construction materials requires a great amount of energy, and in Saudi Arabia, this production currently entails the use of substantial amounts of liquid fuels. Liquid fuels are mostly sold at below-market prices domestically, and thus result in large opportunity costs for...

The Potential Role of Truck-Hailing and Operational Efficiency Improvement in Decarbonizing China’s Medium- and Heavy-Duty Road Freight Transport (1)

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

The Potential Role of Truck-Hailing and Operational Efficiency Improvement in Decarbonizing China’s Medium- and Heavy-Duty Road Freight Transport

11 February 2025

Truck-hailing is a relatively new Uber-like business model that connects road freight carriers with shippers via mobile apps. First appeared around 2013, it has achieved fast market uptake in China, involving almost 8 million commercial trucks annually by the end of 2023. With China ...

Energy Peacekeeping: The Role of Effectivités as a Viable, Legal Instrument in Addressing Shared or Disputed Offshore Oil and Gas Fields (1)

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Energy Peacekeeping: The Role of Effectivités as a Viable, Legal Instrument in Addressing Shared or Disputed Offshore Oil and Gas Fields

11 February 2025

As more offshore oil and gas discoveries, some of them dramatic, take place in areas where maritime boundaries can be disputed, effectivités have become key considerations in resolving some of the resulting conflicts. A basic understanding of the theory of effectivités is therefore v...

Futures Magazine

How Can Policy Change The Financial Choices Of Saudi Arabia’s Workers?

09 February 2025

A study of Saudi Arabia’s foreign remittance outflows offers clues on how to keep more earnings in the Kingdom.

KAPSARC journal article

Energy Transition in Oil-Dependent Economies: Public Discount Rates for Investment Project Evaluation

05 February 2025

For an oil-exporting economy, valuing oil-related cash flows from a public perspective requires using a discount rate equal to the risk-free public rate plus a risk premium. Economic dependence on oil affects the public discount rate for oil-related cash flows in two opposite ways: o...

Futures Magazine

Fuel Price Reform Among Options To Cut Transport-Linked Emissions

05 February 2025

Efforts to mitigate carbon emissions linked to transport will require detailed analysis and new policy ideas.

KAPSARC journal article

The Role of the Petrochemical Sector's Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy. A Scenario Analysis of the Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks

04 February 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

04 February 2025

Utilities & Renewables

Commentary

Concrete: The Non-Critical, Critical Material

02 February 2025

The paper is a commentary on key questions facing the relationship between concrete, the energy transition and the global move to net-zero.

KAPSARC journal article

Why Chinese Car Owners May Not Repurchase Electric Vehicles?

01 February 2025

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Ratifying the Kigali Amendment Challenges and Opportunities for Saudi Arabia

23 January 2025

The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol is an international agreement which continues the effort to protect the ozone layer but adds the phase out of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases that contribute significantly to global warming. The international efforts on...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Methodology paper

Evaluating Airport Location Sustainability Performance: A Methodology from Experts and Contextual Perspective

23 January 2025

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the sustainable performance of an airport location. The approach integrates multiple criteria, including transport requirements, environmental impacts, accessibility, economic potential, social impacts, and regulatory acceptability. The m...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Waste-to-Hydrogen Techno-Economic Assessment and Emission Reduction Potential in Saudi Arabia

23 January 2025

Waste-to-hydrogen (WTH) presents an enormous untapped potential to achieve climate change objectives for many countries by transitioning from high CO2 emission waste disposal techniques to producing clean fuel such as green hydrogen. Additionally, WTH can be incorporated with carbon ...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Windfalls and Pitfalls: How Foreign Labor Strengthens Economic Resilience in GCC During Energy Transition

20 January 2025

Governments in oil-dependent countries, particularly those in the Gulf, have launched broad and ambitious national plans to diversify their economies. While diversification reduces vulnerability to oil shocks, the expansion of renewables and the deregulation of domestic energy prices...

KAPSARC journal article

The Potential Role of Seasonal Pumped Hydropower Storage in Decarbonizing the Power Sector in Saudi Arabia

16 January 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Designing Long-lasting Inventions for Residential Energy Efficiency

15 January 2025

KAPSARC journal article

Assessing Impacts of Global Economic Dynamics on the Saudi Economy and Oil Production: A GVAR Analysis

14 January 2025

Oil & Gas

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

13 January 2025

This is the KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook quarterly report that focuses on oil markets supply, demand and balances.

KAPSARC journal article

12 January 2025

The Saudi government has outlined its decarbonization strategy through various statements and reports, identifying key initiatives, preferred technologies, and investment targets to drive this transformation. In this study, we employ Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) to evaluate t...

Climate-Resilient Cities: Priorities for the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Transportation & Infrastructure

Book/book chapter

Climate-Resilient Cities: Priorities for the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

12 January 2025

This edited volume discusses the concept of resilient cities within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Written by an international panel of scholars and experts, the book presents theoretical approaches, identifies risk factors, and suggests policie... Read Full Book Here

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Sectoral Clustering and Climate-Tech Startup Financing Through Venture Capital and Private Equity

12 January 2025

In this study, I investigate climate-tech startup financing of venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) investments across different sectors around the world for the 2022-2024 period. Cross-sectional analysis suggests that start-ups in sectors with higher dynamism (proxied by dea...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Technoeconomic Assessment and Carbon Dioxide Removal Potential for the Global Pulp and Paper Industry

12 January 2025

The pulp and paper industry is the fourth largest industrial energy user globally and presents significant carbon removal potential as a large portion of emissions from this industry are biogenic. The decarbonization potential of this industry has been discussed in literature at coun...

KAPSARC journal article

Modeling the Impact of Price and Usage Efficiency on Domestic Water Demand in Saudi Arabia

09 January 2025

Transportation & Infrastructure

Workshop brief

The Race to Decarbonize Long-Haul Transport and the Lessons Learned for KSA

07 January 2025

In May 2023, the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) organized a workshop titled “The race to decarbonize long-haul transport and the lessons learned for KSA” with the support of the University of Antwerp. The workshop aimed to discuss current developments i...

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Anticipating Trend Shifts in Oil Prices Using the Crude Oil Storage Index

07 January 2025

We analyze oil price dynamics in the long-, medium and short-term by using the world crude storage index (COSI), a global index reflecting spread options values from crude oil at major ports around the world for all of the major competing crudes.

Oil & Gas

Commentary

No Magic Bullet The Challenge of Security Interventions in Phantom Oil Flows

07 January 2025

The discovery and exploitation of oil and gas significantly transformed the global economy and social welfare landscape. Oil, in particular, became the lifeblood of industrialization, fueling the growth of numerous sectors, including transportation, manufacturing, and electricity gen...

Book/book chapter

The GCC and the Circular Carbon Economy: Progress and Potential

01 January 2025

The circular carbon economy (CCE) concept aims to provide a holistic, technology-agnostic, and cost-effective framework for assessing climate change mitigation options and pathways at a global, national, or organisational level with the ultimate goal...

Read Full Book Chapter Here

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

The Determinants of Successful Energy Subsidy Reforms: A Logistic Regression Analysis

29 December 2024

Many factors influence whether an energy subsidy reform is successful. We define success as a reform that does not lead to social unrest and is not reversed. To better understand these factors, we apply logistic regression analysis to an original dataset capturing 392 distinct episod...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Harnessing Heat from the Refinery and Petrochemical Sectors for Future Commercial-Scale DAC Systems in Saudi Arabia

29 December 2024

As the global community commits to achieving net-zero carbon emissions, innovative strategies such as Direct Air Capture (DAC) are gaining prominence. DAC, a key carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technology, is energy intensive and requires large amounts of heat and electricity. To ensure...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Navigating the Trade and Climate Change Nexus

19 December 2024

As global efforts to tackle climate change intensify, the intersection of trade and climate policy is increasingly critical. Trade can drive access to clean energy technologies and promote sustainable practices but also risks amplifying emissions through carbon-intensive industries a...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Impact of Urban Traffic on Fuel Consumption Leveraging IoT Data: Case Study of Riyadh City

19 December 2024

This study explores the rising trend of traffic congestion in Riyadh and its impact on fuel consumption for passenger cars amid the challenges of rapid urbanization and increasing vehicle use. By utilizing real-time floating car data (FCD) collected by vehicles equipped with Global P...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

The Economics of Offshore Wind-Based Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia

18 December 2024

Offshore hydrogen production from offshore wind energy is gaining global attention as an appealing solution for scaling up green hydrogen production. The technoeconomic feasibility of integrating offshore wind into hydrogen production has been explored in various regions, but no comp...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Analyzing the Interplay of Urbanization, Economic Development, and Seaborne Trade A Case of Saudi Arabia

18 December 2024

Urbanization is widely recognized as a critical factor influencing economic growth and global trade, yet there is ongoing debate about whether it drives these outcomes or is a consequence of them. To address this, it is essential to determine whether urbanization spurs economic devel...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Environmental Performance of Passenger Cars in the KSA: Comparison of Different Technologies via a Life Cycle Assessment Approach

18 December 2024

In terms of deployment feasibility, PHEVs and HEVs have a distinct advantage over FCEVs, as they can leverage the existing electricity grid and fueling infrastructure, making them a more practical and readily available solution for reducing near-term emissions in the KSA transportat...

Electric Vehicle Battery Chemistry Evolutions: Critical Mineral Implications (1)

Utilities & Renewables

Report

Electric Vehicle Battery Chemistry Evolutions: Critical Mineral Implications

18 December 2024

The energy and transport transition will require a wider volume and range of materials than the systems that it is replacing. This has become an increasingly important topic across both the government and private sectors over the last decade. A crucial component of this materiality i...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Carbon Dioxide Utilization in the Desalination Sector in Saudi Arabia: An Opportunity for Achieving Negative Emissions

18 December 2024

The global pursuit of sustainable solutions to mitigate climate change has intensified, necessitating innovative approaches that transform traditional carbon-intensive industries into potential carbon sinks. Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is a key tool for achieving n...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Carbon Removal Ratings and their Potential in Saudi Arabia

18 December 2024

As the global focus on mitigating climate change intensifies, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies have emerged as critical tools in reducing atmospheric carbon levels. In Saudi Arabia, recent studies have identified direct air capture (DAC) and energy from waste with carbon cap...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Uncertainty in Modeling the Demand for Materials from the Energy Sector at a Country-level: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

12 December 2024

The material intensity of the energy transition has been a topic of growing importance in the literature and policymaking over the last decade. Much of this debate has been founded on a range of future demand forecasts of the material requirements of the energy transition, primarily ...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

How to Create a Hydrogen Market? Lessons from Electricity and Gas Markets on Pricing and Investment Approaches

12 December 2024

To promote low-carbon hydrogen, which is produced in a way that results in no or near-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, for decarbonization, substantial investments are required across the hydrogen value chain. Despite the potential of hydrogen in several applications, various unc...

Utilities & Renewables

Methodology paper

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Framework for Examining the Environmental Impacts of Asphalt Pavement Mixtures in Saudi Arabia

12 December 2024

Energy consumption and transport distance (i.e., the distance between raw... Several environmental impact categories, including stratospheric ozone depletion, photochemical ozone formation, acidification, eutrophication, climate change, and particulate matter formation, were identified.

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Towards a CCS National Strategy and Roadmap for Saudi Arabia

09 December 2024

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has long been associated with the production and consumption of hydroacrbons. However, with the increasing concerns over climate change and the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the country has started to explore and inves...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

A Maritime Sector in Transition – Learning from Other Sectoral Energy Transitions

09 December 2024

The maritime sector currently contributes approximately 2.3% of global CO₂ emissions, with projections suggesting that this share could rise to 10%-13% by 2050, highlighting an urgent need for decarbonization. In response to the potentially catastrophic impacts of climate change, the...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Life Cycle Assessment of Road Freight Decarbonization in Saudi Arabia

09 December 2024

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is committed to transitioning towards a diversified, low-carbon economy, necessitating the decarbonization of its road freight sector, which is a significant source of domestic energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study address...

Oil & Gas

Instant Insight

BRICS+ and the Future of Commodity Markets

05 December 2024

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in late 1991 marked a pivotal shift in the global economic landscape, ushering in an era characterized by increased market openness and economic integration. The years following have been symbolized by the formation of the European Union in 1993 an...

Utilities & Renewables

Futures Magazine

Could Geothermal Boost Saudi Arabia’s Energy Transition?

05 December 2024

Investment in geothermal energy sources could boost renewable power generation, create jobs, and enhance technological advancement across Saudi Arabia.

Utilities & Renewables

Commentary

Empowering Change: Overcoming Obstacles in Implementing CCS for Power Generation – Key Takeaways for Global Players

03 December 2024

Ac...₂emissions, which come primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels, reached a record high level of 37.4 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2022 (IEA 2024). At 38% electricity generation continues to be the largest contributor to these emissions, despite the impressive growth in renewable energy.

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

Locating EV Charging Stations to Enable Intercity Travel in Saudi Arabia

03 December 2024

The development of electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure presents a promising pathway to reduce transportation emissions, particularly when integrated with low-carbon energy systems. Given Saudi Arabia’s commitment to sustainable travel initiatives, a clear understanding of the ...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Data Insight

Behavioral Changes in Household Electricity Consumption from 2015 to 2022

02 December 2024

Analyzing the distribution of electricity consumption provides a clearer picture of distinct household segments and their behaviors. This approach allows us to identify clusters of low, moderate, and high consumers, offering insight into usage patterns. Such granularity can guide tar...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Key Drivers of Decarbonizing Hard- to-Abate Energy- System Sectors by Midcentury

02 December 2024

o limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, achieving a net-zero or near-zero greenhouse gas emission energy system by midcentury is essential. This ambitious target requires the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors, particularly transportation and heavy industry. This study employs ...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Introduction of Electric Vehicles in Saudi Arabia: Impacts on Oil Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Electricity Demand

02 December 2024

emissions associated with the road transport sector by 2050. On the basis of the projected number of ICE vehicles, we design three scenarios for developing electric vehicles (EVs) (high-, moderate-, and low-growth scenarios) to determine the impact...₂emissions, and electricity demand.

Oil & Gas

Instant Insight

Balancing International Trade and Climate Justice: Legal Perspectives on the EU’s Deforestation Regulation

02 December 2024

Forests play a crucial role as natural carbon sinks and protectors of biodiversity. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the world lost approximately 4.2 million square kilometers of forest between 1990 and 2020 – an area nearly twice the si...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Phantom Oil Movements: An Investigation into Opaque Ship- to-Ship Operations and Their Role in Sanction Evasion

02 December 2024

The transportation and distribution of large volumes of oil, gas, and refined products over long distances are enabled primarily by marine shipping. Transborder pipelines serve as an additional method for transporting oil and gas. However, these pipelines are typically more expensive...

Utilities & Renewables

Futures Magazine

Inside The Grid Of The Future

02 December 2024

A new integrated assessment modelling study highlights the importance of strategic planning and investment in transforming Saudi Arabia’s electricity grid.

Futures Magazine

What's Driving Plug-in Vehicle Abandonment?

02 December 2024

Understanding why American electric vehicle owners are switching back to gasoline could help other countries develop more effective policies for EV adoption.

Futures Magazine

Income Growth Fuels Electricity Demand In Middle-Income Countries

02 December 2024

Income stability, price, and electricity demand could help shape long-term energy policies for growing economies.

Image5 Walking And Cycling Sports Boulevard Project Web

Futures Magazine

Creating A Walkable City For Riyadh’s New Metro

Predicting Future Gobal Oil Demand From Buildings

28 November 2024

A comprehensive modelling study offers insights into the future energy needs of the world’s built environment.

Futures Magazine

How To Fortify Power Grids Against Extreme Weather

28 November 2024

Understanding how electricity systems respond to extreme weather events is key to developing more resilient infrastructure.

Futures Magazine

How Well-planned Shade Reduces The Impact Of Heatwaves

28 November 2024

Building height and trees can make a significant difference to the street-level experience of heatwaves.

Futures Magazine

Driving The Transition To Energy-Efficient Homes

28 November 2024

A new study into household energy-saving solutions provides valuable insights and implications for policymakers aiming to promote investment in energy efficiency.

Futures Magazine

Simulating The Impact Of Groundwater Overuse

28 November 2024

Increasing dependence on underground extraction is depleting natural aquifers, transforming water into a finite resource. By modelling 900 future scenarios, researchers are revealing the global impact of this unsustainable trend.

Futures Magazine

A Recipe For Expanding Global Access To Clean Cooking

28 November 2024

Enhanced collaboration across sectors can expand access to liquid petroleum gas, paving the way for clean cooking targets by 2030.

Futures Magazine

Predicting Future Global Oil Demand From Buildings

28 November 2024

A comprehensive modelling study offers insights into the future energy needs of the world’s built environment.

Futures Magazine

An Appetite For Change In Energy Use

27 November 2024

A lab-based study of individuals’ attitudes toward energy efficiency strategies for buildings provides a blueprint for real-world initiatives.

Futures Magazine

Shaping The Future Of Energy

27 November 2024

Agile, timely, and anticipative, KAPSARC’s energy economics and sustainability research programs are finding solutions to support domestic and global energy transitions.

Transportation & Infrastructure

Methodology paper

Approach and Initial Findings in Modeling Future Seaborne Trade and Its Impact on Energy Demand

26 November 2024

) emissions, prompting the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to aim for net-zero shipping greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 to mitigate climate change. Shipping is a critical link between countries for transporting goods, and its future advancements will hinge primarily ...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Digitalized Virtual Power Plants to Unlock the Value of Distributed Energy Resources in the Day-Ahead Market

26 November 2024

Digitalized virtual power plants (DVPPs) are advanced software platforms that aggregate and optimally orchestrate a collection of distributed energy resources (DERs) to support grid balance and stability to alleviate stressed transmission and distribution lines and provide critical g...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Resilient Digitalized Power Grids with High Penetration of Distributed, Variable Renewable Energy

25 November 2024

Conventional power grids are undergoing a transition towards digitalized power grids, where cyber, physical, and social domains are tightly coupled through smart components, advanced metering infrastructure, wireless communication /connectivity networks, and digital technologies that...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

How the Census-2022 Results Changed the Outlook for Electricity Demand

25 November 2024

This paper aims to address these discrepancies by reestimating an original empirical model of electricity demand using recently revised population data from GaStat (2024). The original model, which was developed by Mikayilov and Darandary (2024), relied on population data from GaStat...

KAPSARC journal article

Export Destination and Firm Upgrading: Evidence from Spain

20 November 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Inter-fuel Substitution in the Industrial Sector of Saudi Arabia

15 November 2024

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

The Circular Carbon Economy Index 2024 – Results

14 November 2024

The 2024 CCE Index provides a multidimensional overview of the current state of net-zero transitions worldwide, covering 125 countries from all world regions. It is based on the holistic, technology-neutral and flexible concept of the circular carbon economy (CCE), where a full CCE i...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Pandemic, Ukraine, OPEC+ and Strategic Stockpiles: Taming the Oil Market in Turbulent Times

12 November 2024

With a simple decomposition method, we estimate the monthly shifts in global oil demand and non-OPEC+ supply since 2010. We find evidence that during the January 2017 to December 2023 period, OPEC+ attempted to stabilize the price of crude oil well below the values assessed by market...

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Why Does Sustainable Finance Not Flow into the Global South?

12 November 2024

While private sustainable finance flows have grown substantially in recent years, they are heavily concentrated in certain countries – primarily in a few advanced economies. Emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) face significant barriers to accessing much-needed private f...

Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the GCC Built Environment (1)

Climate & Sustainability

Report

Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the GCC Built Environment

12 November 2024

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, encompassing Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, is distinguished by rapid urbanization, robust economic growth, and substantial energy consumption. The built environment has expanded significantly to ac...

KAPSARC journal article

Does the Income Elasticity of Energy Demand Vary with the Stages of Economic Development?

12 November 2024

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

The Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment of Jet Fuel Production and Consumption

12 November 2024

This paper aims to estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of jet fuel production and consumption in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) using the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The system boundaries include well-to-tank (WTT) activities, covering crude oil ...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Critical Minerals and the Oil Industry: The Impact of a Positive Shock to Critical Mineral and World Oil Prices

07 November 2024

The term “critical minerals” (CMs) refers to a distinct category of commodities, such as rare earths, critical earth minerals, and other non-fuel minerals or mineral materials that are of strategic importance to national economies and technical development and that have a high risk o...

KAPSARC journal article

Enabling Net-zero Shipping: An Expert Review-based Agenda for Emerging Techno-economic and Policy Research

06 November 2024

KAPSARC journal article

A Perspective on Emerging energy Policy and Economic Research Agenda for Enabling Aviation Climate Action

06 November 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Emerging Energy Economics and Policy Research Priorities for Enabling the Electric Vehicle Sector

06 November 2024

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia’s Net- Zero Ambition

05 November 2024

Saudi Arabia’s ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity for diversification away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that steer the Kingdom from a fo...

Can the Dangote Refinery Deliver on its Promise? (1)

Oil & Gas

Instant Insight

Can the Dangote Refinery Deliver on its Promise?

03 November 2024

In Nigeria, energy cost is the predominant driver of prices for all goods and services. With a population of over 200 million people, Nigeria is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a major producer of crude oil in Africa.

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Lessons from an International Review of Successful and Unsuccessful Energy Subsidy Reforms

03 November 2024

Many factors contribute to the success of energy subsidy reform. To better understand these factors, we review studies that drew lessons from past attempts at reform. We synthesize the lessons and then expound on them by reviewing our newly constructed database of over 3,000 news art...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Understanding the Causal Nexus Between Saudi’s Seaborne Trade and Economy and Quantifying the Relationship

03 November 2024

An economy’s primary objective is to foster high economic growth, ultimately enhancing the well-being of its citizens. Recent economic strategies have increasingly emphasized trade-oriented policies to achieve this goal.

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Financing the Decarbonization of Hard-to- Abate Sectors Trends, Issues, and Ways Forward

03 November 2024

Global transition investments have experienced incredible growth and progress, with the increasing level of participation from private actors in recent years. Investment flows in clean technologies have significantly increased since the COVID-19 era, reaching US$1.8 trillion in 2023,...

Oil & Gas

Methodology paper

Long-Term Forecasting Models of Oil Demand Emerging from the Global Petrochemical Sector

03 November 2024

This study aims to estimate the demand for petrochemical feedstocks for four main products (naphtha, ethane, liquified petroleum gas [LPG], and other petrochemical products) for each of the eight regions of the world.

Oil & Gas

Commentary

The Impact of Displacing Fuel Oil on Saudi Refineries

03 November 2024

Saudi Arabia aims to displace fuel oil in its electricity system and industry. Such a move will impact the operation of its oil refineries, and this commentary explores these potential effects.

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Methodology paper

K-DSGE 2.0: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Saudi Arabia with Carbon Circular Economy Features

03 November 2024

This paper describes a substantially improved version of K-DSGE, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Saudi Arabian economy, developed by KAPSARC researchers.

KAPSARC journal article

Mitigating Climate Change While Producing More Oil: Economic Analysis of Government Support for CCS-EOR

01 November 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Beyond Cost: A Multifaceted Look at Financial Incentives and Residential Energy Renovation Behavior

01 November 2024

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Report

A Global Hydrogen Future

31 October 2024

Hydrogen is a significant part of energy conversations because of its scalability, flexibility, and decarbonization potential. Considerable efforts are underway globally to determine the most effective ways to introduce hydrogen into the energy mix. This report—A Global Hydrogen Futu...

KAPSARC journal article

Future Energy Breakthroughs: Implications for the Hydrocarbon Economies of the Arabian Gulf

31 October 2024

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Using Satellite Technology to Measure Methane Emissions in Arabian Gulf Countries

30 October 2024

Decision makers need high-quality information on the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to take effective climate actions. Of the GHGs, methane can be particularly difficult to measure. Huge discrepancies exist in methane emission estimates at the global, national, and corporate...

KAPSARC journal article

Unveiling the Causal Nexus Between Saudi’s Seaborne Trade and Economy: Evidence from an ARDL Model

21 October 2024

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

The Unfolding Potential of GCC China Collaboration on Critical Minerals

15 October 2024

As a clean energy system begins to be implemented worldwide, the demand for critical minerals is expected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. Thus, demonstrating how mineral collaboration benefits the economy is key to building long-term supply resilience and keeping the ...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Are Automakers Overcharging Consumers for Electric Vehicle Batteries?

15 October 2024

Vehicle electrification is a major component of many sustainability goals and frameworks. Research suggests that battery costs account for a large portion of the price premium for electric vehicles (EVs) relative to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and that price parity, w...

Oil & Gas

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

15 October 2024

This quarter’s highlights include stagnating quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) oil demand, with a trivial decline of only 8,000 barrels a day (Kb/d), following last quarter’s growth of 1.27 million barrels per day (MMb/d). While significant gains and losses were reported in individual regions...

KAPSARC journal article

Emissions Effect of Financial Development in the GCC: is The Effect Asymmetric?

14 October 2024

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Unraveling the Black Market for Oil: The Complex Web of Phantom Trade and Its Reverberating Effects on Energy Security, Trade Balances, and Social Welfare

14 October 2024

for oil embodies the ancient parable of the blind men and the elephant. Just as the blind men each touched a different part of the elephant and experienced only a fraction of its true nature, so do policymakers perceive the black market for oil through narrow lenses. However, this m...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Azerbaijan: Energy, Carbon, and Opportunities

14 October 2024

At the end of 2023, after prolonged discussions, Azerbaijan was selected as the host country of the 2024 United Nations climate summit, COP29. Like the two preceding hosts of COP28 and COP27, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, Azerbaijan is also a major oil and gas producer.

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Geothermal Energy – A Rising Powerhouse? A Global Technical Review and Applications for Saudi Arabia

14 October 2024

The Earth’s core, which is as hot as the sun, contains a large amount of thermal energy insulated by impermeable rocks. This energy, totaling 15 million zetta joules, dwarfs traditional energy sources such as coal and gas. However, only a fraction of this energy has been utilize...

Utilities & Renewables

Workshop brief

Facilitating the Low-Carbon Hydrogen Market: Opportunities, Challenges, and Pathways

14 October 2024

he hydrogen industry is at a turning point, as regulatory frameworks and incentive schemes begin to take shape. However, there are still barriers for market participants to commit to production projects and infrastructure, as they face the chicken-and-the-egg dilemma. The King Abdull...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Enabling Net-Zero Shipping An Expert Review-Based Agenda for Emerging Techno-Economic and Policy Research

14 October 2024

Net-zero shipping is emerging as a global priority, underscored by the shipping sector’s increasing projected contribution to climate change, making it critical to understand the emerging associated research priorities. We outline key techno-economic and policy research priorities fo...

KAPSARC journal article

Long-Term Forecasting Models of Oil Demand Emerging from the Global Petrochemical Sector

11 October 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Crafting Effective Climate, Energy, and Environmental Policy: Time For Action

11 October 2024

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Saudi Arabia and the Circular Carbon Economy: From Vision to Implementation

06 October 2024

This case study shows how the Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) Index can be used to analyze a country’s CCE performance and enablers in a holistic manner and in a comparative context, relative to other countries. Saudi Arabia is an extremely relevant country to examine in this context g...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Understanding the Role of Renewable Energy in Import Demand for Petrochemicals Is the Prevailing Perception More Imagined Than Real?

06 October 2024

The prevailing perception is that the transition to renewable energy will lead to a decrease in demand for hydrocarbons and petrochemicals. The present work empirically demonstrates that this common sense may be more imaginary than real: it finds evidence that the renewable energy ...

Climate & Sustainability

Book/book chapter

The State of Carbon Dioxide Removals (CDRs) - Policymaking and Governance

04 October 2024

Carbon Dioxide Removals (CDRs) involve capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it for decades to millennia on land, in the ocean, in geological formations or in products. Innovation in CDR has expanded substantially, exemplified by RD&...

Read full chapter here

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Fueling India’s Mobility Transition: A Life Cycle Perspective on Passenger Road Transport Options

30 September 2024

The transportation sector is crucial for India’s economic and social development but poses significant environmental and global warming challenges. This study conducts a comprehensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of passenger vehicles in India, evaluating various propulsion technologi...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Gas Demand in the MENA Hydrocarbon- Producing Countries: Recent Trends and Drivers

30 September 2024

Middle East and North Africa ...MENA) region, with demand reaching more than 700 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2022 and increasing by almost 50% compared with a decade ago. Gas demand in the MENA region accounts for 17% of the global gas consumption, making it a key demand center.

Oil & Gas

Methodology paper

Web-Based User Interfaces for Mathematical Models to Support Decisions: The Fuel Distribution Network Optimizer

30 September 2024

Mathematical models provide quantitative analyses that can inform policy decisions. We argue that two attributes can support models’ adoption by policymakers: an intuitive graphical interface and active engagement between modelers and policymakers.

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Climate and Cost Analysis of SUVs in Saudi Arabia A Life Cycle Analysis Approach

30 September 2024

This study is conducted within the framework of the Saudi Vision 2030 agenda to diversify its economy and promote sustainable technologies, specifically examining the life-cycle performance of hybrid and conventional sport utility vehicles (SUVs) in the Kingdom (KSA).

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Assessing the Potential and Feasibility of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Technologies in Saudi Arabia

13 October 2024

As the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia strives to achieve its climate goals and transition its economy away from fossil fuel dependency, understanding the viability and impact of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options becomes paramount.

The Path to 2060: Saudi Arabia&#8217;s Long-Term Pathway for GHG Emission Reduction

KAPSARC journal article

The Path to 2060: Saudi Arabia’s Long-Term Pathway for GHG Emission Reduction

24 September 2024

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Southeast Asia and the Circular Carbon Economy: A Rapidly Developing Region

12 September 2024

This KAPSARC Discussion Paper examines six major Southeast Asian economies’ progress and potential on the road to net-zero emissions, or carbon circularity. It does so by using the technology-neutral approach of the circular carbon economy (CCE) and the CCE Index, developed at KA...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Middle East and North Africa and the Circular Carbon Economy: Seizing the Potential for Action

12 September 2024

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is an emerging center of energy demand. Economic and population growth, increasing industrialization as well as rising living standards are all expected to contribute to a continued increase in the region’s energy consumption over the co...

An Exposition of Bilinear “Implicit” Subsidy Equations (1)

Oil & Gas

Commentary

An Exposition of Bilinear “Implicit” Subsidy Equations

10 September 2024

The price-gap method is popularly applied to estimate energy subsidies, and it simply involves calculating the difference between the market and domestic prices of a good multiplied by the quantity consumed. In the case where subsidies impose foregone revenue rather than direct costs...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

Saudi Arabia’s Population Trends: Insights from the 2022 Census Revision

30 September 2024

Having people as a main focal point of all policies and activities worldwide and at an individual country level sets a responsibility for all countries/institutions to have reliable information on the size, structure, and dynamics of the population that can be used in provision of n...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Are Households Quitting Electric Vehicle Ownership?

03 September 2024

In this paper, we investigate the proportion of U.S. plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) owners who discontinued PEV ownership by disposing of their PEV and buying a non-PEV as their next vehicle, which is termed PEV “discontinuance.”

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Emerging Policy and Economic Research Priorities for Enabling the Electric Vehicle Sector

01 September 2024

We highlight key emerging research priorities on the climate- and industrial-policy driven pathway to passenger car electrification, including both pure battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, using a three-pronged approach. This includes examining journalistic reports...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Emerging Research Priorities for Enabling Aviation Climate Action: Identification and Expert Evaluation

01 September 2024

Aviation climate action is emerging as a global priority, underscored by the aviation sector’s increasing projected contribution to climate change and the consequential effects of climate change on aviation operations. This makes it critical to understand the emergent associated rese...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

Green Jobs and the Saudi Gender Wage Gap: Explained and Unexplained

01 September 2024

Saudi Arabia has made great strides recently in increasing female labor force participation, reaching the Vision 2030 goal of 30% in late 2020, almost a decade early. With labor force participation achieved, the conversation now turns to labor market outcomes, and an increasing gende...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Residential Electricity Consumption and Rebound Effects in Saudi Arabia: Insights into Bridging the Energy Efficiency Gap

30 September 2024

The rebound effect refers to the phenomenon where energy efficiency improvements lead to increased energy consumption, offsetting some of the expected energy savings. This article aims to estimate the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia and ex...

KAPSARC journal article

Climate Policy Stringency and Trade in Energy Transition Minerals: An Analysis of Response Patterns

01 September 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Are Automakers Overcharging Consumers for Electric Vehicle Batteries?

01 September 2024

Oil & Gas

Workshop brief

Volatility of Crude Oil Prices and the Mitigation of Oil Price Risk

28 August 2024

The workshop participants voiced a number of diverse views about the prospects for future oil demand. They also clearly articulated the need for OPEC spare production capacity as a critical policy tool for the stabilization of world oil markets.

Unlocking Energy Efficiency: Perspectives and Catalysts in the GCC Built Environment (1)

Climate & Sustainability

Workshop brief

Unlocking Energy Efficiency: Perspectives and Catalysts in the GCC Built Environment

28 August 2024

The final COP28 agreement has set an ambitious target by calling for a doubling of the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030. To achieve this goal, the current 2% improvement in energy efficiency needs to grow steadily, reaching and maintaining a growth rate of...

KAPSARC journal article

Strategic Priorities and Cost Considerations for Decarbonizing Electricity Generation Using CCS and Nuclear Energy

26 August 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Net-zero Transport Dialogue: Emerging Developments and the Puzzles They Present

25 August 2024

KAPSARC journal article

The Dynamic Role of Subsidies in Promoting Global Electric Vehicle Sales

25 August 2024

Strategic Priorities and Cost Considerations for Decarbonizing Electricity Generation Using CCS and Nuclear Energy (2)

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Strategic Priorities and Cost Considerations for Decarbonizing Electricity Generation Using CCS and Nuclear Energy

25 August 2024

This paper investigates the economics of deploying carbon capture and storage (CCS) on gas-fired power plants while covering its entire value chain, i.e., carbon capture, transport, and storage, and conducting a thorough sensitivity scenario analysis. Our analysis shows that adopting...

Oil & Gas

Workshop brief

Scaling Up Geothermal Power Generation to Rebalance the Energy Trilemma

25 August 2024

Energy is the vehicle that has enabled humanity to flourish. Since the dawn of time, humans have sought to find more efficient ways to power and propel their lives forward. With each generation, humanity has made progress in unlocking energy density, from burning wood to using fossil...

KAPSARC journal article

Finding Opportunity in Economic Power Dispatch: Saving Fuels without Impacting Retail Electricity Prices in Fuel-producing Countries

20 August 2024

Oil & Gas

Instant Insight

Assessing CCUS Potential for LNG in the GCC

14 August 2024

As the world experiences the energy transition, traditional oil and gas producers are feeling a greater need to decarbonize their hydrocarbon production.

Climate & Sustainability

Workshop brief

Bridging the Gaps for an Orderly Energy Transition: The Role of Sustainable Finance in Saudi Arabia

11 August 2024

As governments and organisations across the Middle East work towards achieving their net-zero agendas, sustainable finance plays a crucial role by raising capital for projects essential to achieving these targets. Robust capital markets, supportive regulatory frameworks, and tra...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Measuring Green Jobs in Saudi Arabia: Saudis in Green Occupations

11 August 2024

This paper offers the first estimate of employment in Saudi Arabia that can be linked to the energy transition. Using a task-based taxonomy devised by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics applied to detailed administrative data on Saudi workers, it is estimated that in 2022 a...

KAPSARC journal article

Carbon Capture and Renewable Energy Policies: Could Policy Harmonization be a Puzzle Piece to Solve the Electricity Crisis?

01 August 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Are American Electric Vehicle Owners Quitting?

01 August 2024

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

The Future of Residential Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia and the Role of Energy Efficiency in the 2060 Net Zero Pledge

25 July 2024

Abstract Saudi Arabia has set the ambitious goal to reach net zero by 2060, and reducing domestic electricity consumption and thus curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is critical. Since the residential sector is the biggest consumer of electricity in the Kingdom, understanding how...

KAPSARC journal article

Modelling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia

17 July 2024

Utilities & Renewables

Data Insight

Trends in Global Solar Photovoltaic Installation in 2023

16 July 2024

In 2023, global solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity increased by a record 407 gigawatts (GW) and brought the total global cumulative installed PV capacity to 1,589 GW at the end of 2023.

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Impacts of Ride-Hailing on Energy and the Environment: A Systematic Review

15 July 2024

Ride-hailing has expanded substantially around the globe over the last decade and is likely to be an integral part of future transportation systems. Through a systematic review of the literature concerning the energy and environmental impacts of ride-hailing, we have identified a dic...

Nudging Toward Sustainability: Behavioral Interventions in Saudi Arabia’s Residential Electricity Consumption (1)

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Report

Nudging Toward Sustainability: Behavioral Interventions in Saudi Arabia’s Residential Electricity Consumption

10 July 2024

sidential energy consumption is responsible for significant global energy consumption and associated emissions. As a result, households are a prime focus for behavior-modifying interventions. Household energy conservation can be achieved through changes in consumption patterns and in...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

The Role and Deployment Timing of Direct Air Capture in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Net-Zero Transition

08 July 2024

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2060. Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is critical for the country to meet its net-zero target given its reliance on fossil fuels and limited options for ...₂) removal (CDR).

Transportation & Infrastructure

Workshop brief

Aviation Challenges in the Long Term: Technological Developments, Energy Transition, and Climate Change

11 July 2024

The aviation sector, known for its significant emission levels, is facing a...₂ emissions, presents challenges across the short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. As a result, there is a growing focus on addressing the environmental impact of aviation and adopting sustainable practices.

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

An Emerging Framework for the Probabilistic Cost- Benefit Analysis of the Reliability, Resiliency, and Adaptability of Electric Power Systems

07 July 2024

Probabilistic cost-benefit analyses of the reliability, resiliency, and adaptability of electric power systems can inform policymakers on how to efficiently reduce the frequency, magnitude, duration, and costs of power outages; how to cost-effectively improve the integration of varia...

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Framework for Leveraging the Digitalization of Power Systems within the Context of Energy Transition

07 July 2024

The digitalization of power systems can contribute to a smoother energy transition by, for example, maximizing the use of renewable energy (RE; i.e., minimizing curtailment), peak shaving, and relaxing grid congestion. Collectively, these and other benefits play an important role in ...

Can Smart Cities Be Sustainable: An Emerging Field of Research

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

Can Smart Cities Be Sustainable: An Emerging Field of Research

07 July 2024

Research on smart sustainable cities (SSCs) has fueled a rapid expansion of scholarly work in recent years. However, the key trends and future research avenues in this field are still ambiguous. This article examines the content of SSC research by conducting network and bibliometric ...

KAPSARC journal article

Energy Efficiency Trends in Saudi Arabian Commercial Aviation before and after COVID-19

01 July 2024

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Driving Reductions in Emissions: Unlocking the Potential of Fuel Economy Targets in Saudi Arabia

21 August 2024

The adoption of more stringent fuel economy standards represents a pivotal pathway toward achieving net zero emissions in the transportation sector. By steadily increasing the fuel efficiency of vehicles, this approach drives a gradual but consistent decline in emissions. When couple...

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Solutions to Decarbonize LNG: Why, Where and How Much?

01 July 2024

In 2019, a new product – carbon-neutral LNG – was born. By 2021, the market for this product had grown rapidly. However, in 2022, the number of announcements about the volumes delivered to customers significantly decreased. To a large extent, this decrease was linked to credibility i...

Climate & Sustainability

Methodology paper

KEMGEv2: A General Equilibrium Model for Least-Cost Net Zero Emission Pathways in Saudi Arabia

01 July 2024

This paper describes a novel, dynamic, forward-looking applied general equilibrium model of Saudi Arabia that represents interactions between the energy sectors and the rest of the economy. This model serves to produce long-term scenarios that describe possible energy transition traj...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Reaching Net-Zero GHG Emissions in Saudi Arabia by 2060: Transformation of the Industrial Sector

30 June 2024

The industrial sector plays a crucial role in the economy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Its energy consumption primarily relies on natural gas and oil due to the abundance of these resources and their relatively low administered prices. To reduce oil dependence and create a m...

Climate & Sustainability

Workshop brief

The Circular Carbon Economy Technology Roadmap for Saudi Arabia: CCS and Hydrogen

30 June 2024

he global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation driven by the urgent need to mitigate climate change and transition toward a sustainable, low-carbon future. The development and deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen technologies are gaining tra...

Climate & Sustainability

Instant Insight

Accelerating Climate Finance for Saudi Arabia’s Net Zero Ambitions: Green Financing Frameworks

27 June 2024

As part of the global climate agenda, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is committed to achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2060 through the Circular Carbon Economy (CEE) approach. To achieve this goal, the Kingdom aims to involve private investors more and advance i...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

NOCs and ESG: Room for Refinement?

24 June 2024

The oil and gas industry has faced investment challenges since 2014. Oil and gas suppliers are still searching for a solution to attract investments from financial institutions and other cautious investors who are hesitant to inject more capital. Factors such as price volatility, unc...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Decarbonizing Saudi Arabia’s Residential Sector: Designing Behavioral Interventions for Efficient and Sustainable Energy Consumption

24 June 2024

There is a consensus in the literature regarding the significant role of behavioral change in reducing the level of residential energy consumption. However, there is an ongoing debate concerning the most effective mechanisms and instruments with which to promote energy-efficient acti...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

KAPSARC journal article

Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

12 June 2024

Using an econometric model, we generate scenario projections of CO2 emissions under different sets of assumptions on the underlying drivers. These drivers include GDP, the energy price, economic structure, and the underlying emissions trend. Our baseline scenario projects that Saudi ...

Discussion paper

How Can Bilateral Contracts Support Electricity Trade? A Regional Electricity Model Perspective for the GCC Plus Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq

11 June 2024

Cross-border electricity trading in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) can provide cost and environmental benefits. However, for historical reasons, electricity trading has not reached a mature stage in this region. Based on a bespoke economic dispatch model for the 2030 horizon...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

Impacts of Regional Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia A Study of the Government Sector

05 June 2024

This research presents a comprehensive analysis of electricity demand factors in Saudi Arabia, focusing on the government sector across different regions.

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Energy Transition in Oil-Dependent Economies: Public Discount Rates for Investment Project Evaluation

05 June 2024

Resilience of Saudi Arabia’s Economy to Oil Shocks: Effects of Economic Reforms

30 May 2024

We assess the extent to which the implementation of Vision 2030 policies enhances the Saudi economy’s resilience to oil shocks. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that captures the country’s economic diversification policies, we build a resilience index based on imp...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

Managing the Oil Market Under Misinformation: A Reasonable Quest?

28 May 2024

This paper examines the type and quality of information that OPEC needs to stabilize the oil market. We extend our previous structural model, in which OPEC makes potential mistakes in judging the size of market shocks, to now include the possibility that OPEC misestimates how the mar...

Utilities & Renewables

Workshop brief

Critical Minerals in the Energy Transition: Exploring Prospects and Addressing Hurdles

27 May 2024

The worldwide endeavor to achieve a low-carbon, sustainable economic future via energy transition technologies emphasizes the significant need for minerals and materials.

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

How the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act Supports Energy Efficiency and Low-Carbon Buildings

27 May 2024

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) recognizes that buildings account for a significant share of U.S. energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. To address this issue, the IRA includes a range of policies and programs to make energy efficiency and conservation measures more ...

Commentary

Toward Just Transitions in the MENA Region: Insights from the 2022 Circular Carbon Economy Index

23 May 2024

In recent years, it has become increasingly evident that any major effort to reduce emissions will require a whole-of-society approach that brings along people equally within and across countries. As a sign of this notion entering the “mainstream” of global climate governance, a just...

Commentary

The New Oil Market Multiverse: Physical Commodity Swaps as Instruments for Circumventing Sanctions and Their Implications for the Global Economy

23 May 2024

From the global pandemic to the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the past few years have witnessed a reordering of global trade flows, most dramatically in the energy sector. Less obviously, these shifts have also precipitated an emerging trend toward alte...

Discussion paper

European Gas Supply Diversification: What Is the Role of Middle Eastern and African Liquefied Natural Gas?

23 May 2024

This paper investigates the role of the Middle East and Africa (MEA) in supplying liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe in the context of sustained Russian gas pipeline disruptions.

Discussion paper

Forecasting Saudi Arabia’s Non-Oil GDP Using a Bayesian Mixed Frequency VAR

23 May 2024

Bayesian vector autoregressions have been used by central banks to prepare short-term projections of quarterly GDP and other macroeconomic variables. The Bayesian approach offers the advantage that a researcher can use a priori knowledge to specify a prior distribution of the paramet...

Oil & Gas

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

14 May 2024

This quarter’s highlights include an oil demand quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth of 940 Kb/d following last quarter’s declines. While the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries witnessed a QoQ decline of roughly 700 thousand barrels per day (Kb/d)...

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Smart Energy-Saving Technologies and Their Potential Application in Buildings Lessons for Saudi Arabia

12 May 2024

The increasing demand for energy in our modern world has led to a critical need to conserve energy resources. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts that under the 1.5°C scenario, electricity will be the primary energy carrier in the future, with a threefold incre...

Climate & Sustainability

Commentary

Energy-from-Waste (Ef W) with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in Saudi Arabia

12 May 2024

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, such as direct air capture (DAC) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are essential for Saudi Arabia to achieve net zero by 2060. It is estimated that approximately 250–371 Mt/y of CDR will be needed by 2060 (Kamboj et al. ...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Discussion paper

The Contribution of Energy to Economic Growth and Convergence

12 May 2024

Using a sample of 94 countries, we analyze the contribution of energy to cross-country economic growth and convergence since 1980. By extending the traditional frontier approach to include energy as an additional factor of production, we decompose economic growth into components attr...

Climate & Sustainability

Methodology paper

Projecting Global Oil Demand for the Buildings Sector

06 May 2024

one of the largest consumers of energy resources, the building sector plays a key role in the evolution of the global energy landscape. Buildings account for approximately one-third of the world’s final energy consumption. This methodology paper aims to provide a projection of oil de...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

Decoding the Behavioral Patterns in Saudi Arabia from GASTAT’s Five-Year Household Energy Statistics Survey

05 May 2024

This commentary presents the findings of the annual Energy Statistics Survey by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), an ongoing initiative since 2017 that is now in its fifth iteration, which covers 2022. The survey encompasses hundreds of responses from 45,420 households a...

Assessment of the Potential of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines in the Red Sea (1)

Utilities & Renewables

Discussion paper

Assessment of the Potential of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines in the Red Sea

05 May 2024

Floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) have recently gained traction and are being installed in several regions of Europe and Asia. These turbines use the same technology as typical offshore wind turbines but are not directly anchored to the seabed. Instead, they are tethered with m...

Utilities & Renewables

Instant Insight

The U.S. Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (45V) – The Cause of an Ideological Fault Line

02 May 2024

In 2022, the U.S. passed the “Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)” – legislation that appropriated ~$370 billion as subsidies for measures dedicated to improving energy security and accelerating the clean energy transition, making it the single largest investment in climate and energy in A...

Oil & Gas

Commentary

Global Crude Oil Refinery Configurations

02 May 2024

Crude oil refineries produce finished petroleum products through a series of processing steps known as refinery unit operations. The capacities and varieties of process units, along with their operational characteristics, differentiate one refinery from another.

KAPSARC journal article

Energy Policy Pathways to Inform Climate Policy in Saudi Arabia

01 May 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Macroeconomic, Energy, and Emission Effects of Solar PV Deployment at Utility and Distributed Scales in Saudi Arabia

01 May 2024

Oil & Gas

Instant Insight

Geothermal – Saudi Arabia’s Next Energy Vector?

30 April 2024

For decades, Saudi Arabia’s power sector has heavily relied on hydrocarbons for electricity generation. Their abundant supply, affordability, and differential performance have made them a top choice. A significant portion of this electricity provides power for air conditioning system...

Oil & Gas

Instant Insight

Satellite-Assisted Methane Emissions Intensity from Saudi Oil and Gas Production in 2023

28 April 2024

In its latest release of the Global Methane Tracker, the International Energy Agency (IEA) imputes methane intensity for each oil and gas producer for 2023.

Ecological-behavioral Economics: Impact of Information on Energy-renovation Decision Through Third-party Investing

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

Ecological-behavioral Economics: Impact of Information on Energy-renovation Decision Through Third-party Investing

28 April 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Modeling Green Hydrogen Production Using power-to-x: Saudi and German Contexts

25 April 2024

Global Peak Water Limit of Future Groundwater Withdrawals

Climate & Sustainability

KAPSARC journal article

Global Peak Water Limit of Future Groundwater Withdrawals

22 April 2024

Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel the irrigated green revolution of global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore `peak water limits’ to inves...

Book/book chapter

Smart Cities: Social and Environmental Challenges and Opportunities for Local Authorities

21 April 2024

This edited volume discusses the socioeconomic, environmental, and policy implications of smart cities. Written by international experts in energy economics and policy, the chapters present wide range of high quality theoretical and empirical studies at th... This is an open access book

KAPSARC journal article

Modeling the Determinants of Electrical Vehicles Adoption: A Saudi Perspective

18 April 2024

Revitalizing Relationships for the Clean Energy Souk

Utilities & Renewables

Book/book chapter

Revitalizing Relationships for the Clean Energy Souk

18 April 2024

The GCC countries have been trading for millennia, and energy transition offers new opportunities to revitalize existing trade relationships and form new partnerships driving growth through innovation. Read More Here

The Clean Hydrogen Economy and Saudi Arabia

Oil & Gas

Book/book chapter

The Clean Hydrogen Economy and Saudi Arabia

18 April 2024

This book provides a first-of-its-kind analysis of the emerging global hydrogen economy from the vantage point of one of the world’s biggest energy providers: Saudi Arabia. In 2021, and within the context of the Circular Carbon Economy framework, Saudi Arabia anno... Read Full Book Here

KAPSARC journal article

Impacts of Ride-hailing on Energy and the Environment: A Systematic Review

09 April 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Energy Price Reform to Mitigate Transportation Carbon Emissions in Oil-Rich Economies

02 April 2024

Discussion paper

The Circular Carbon Economy Index 2023: Results

31 March 2024

The Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) Index provides a comparative overview of where countries stand on the road to net-zero and how well equipped they are to get there. The CCE Index compiles quantitative data points from 38 robust sources into a composite indicator covering countries r...

Discussion paper

Assessing the Impact of Water Price and Water-Use Efficiency on Domestic Water Demand in Saudi Arabia

As shipping has the advantage of being the most cost-effective mode of transportation, it will continue to grow with increasing international trade flows. Therefore, this advantage must be leveraged to achieve the long-term goals of the maritime industry.

Saudi Arabia’s Revealed Comparative Advantage in Non-Oil Exports (1)

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

Saudi Arabia’s Revealed Comparative Advantage in Non-Oil Exports

25 March 2024

The revealed comparative advantage (RCA) is based on Ricardian trade theory, which postulates that trade flows between countries are determined by their relative productivity differences. The RCA index provides a general indication and a first approximation of a country’s competitive...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Achieving Net-Zero GHG Emissions of Saudi Arabia by 2060: The Transformation of the Building Sector

25 March 2024

In this paper, an economy-wide, net-zero pathway that enables Saudi Arabia to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060 is investigated, with a specific focus on the critical role played by the building sector. An exploration is undertaken of the significance of energy effici...

Energy Macro & Micro-economics

Commentary

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Nonoil Trade Balance: The Case of Saudi Arabia

21 March 2024

Oil prices play a pivotal role in the economies of oil-exporting countries, especially those in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Identifying Emerging Challenges and Priorities for Aviation Decarbonization (1)

Transportation & Infrastructure

Report

Identifying Emerging Challenges and Priorities for Aviation Decarbonization

18 March 2024

Decarbonization of the aviation sector has emerged as a global concern because the sector contributes 2%-3% to total global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, it is critical for us to understand the associated emerging challenges. We determine key research priorities for achieving effec...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Mapping the Net-Zero Pathways for Sustainable Transport Systems in Saudi Arabia: The Role of Life Cycle Assessment

18 March 2024

Net-zero pathways have become a key climate goal that can help promote a carbon-neutral future by balancing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with emissions removed from the atmosphere. These pathways provide strategic frameworks and roadmaps for countries to reduce GHG em...

KAPSARC journal article

10 March 2024

The continued demand for global seaborne trade is estimated to have accounted for 85.9% of world trade in 2023, with demand reaching 12 billion tons. As with the growth in demand, the continued growth in CO₂ emissions from global shipping, which currently contributes an estimated 2.1...

Efficiency in Motion: The Potential of the Newly Launched Bus System in Riyadh (1)

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Efficiency in Motion: The Potential of the Newly Launched Bus System in Riyadh

10 March 2024

Public transportation is an essential component of a functional, well-planned transportation system. It provides a cost-effective, convenient mode of commuting within a city, especially in densely populated cities such as Riyadh.

Transportation & Infrastructure

Methodology paper

The Life Cycle Assessment of Jet Fuel Production and Consumption – A Methodology for Saudi Arabia’s Aviation Sector

10 March 2024

Lif... net-zero targets. The International Civil Aviation Organization has also developed a methodology to evaluate life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for aviation fuels that aligns with the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation sustainability criteria.

Book/book chapter

Climate Change and Transboundary Challenges in Middle East and Africa (MEA)

04 March 2024

The world’s largest climate summit, the Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), between 30 November and 12 December 2023, is a landmark moment in our planet’s future.... Read Book Chapter

KAPSARC journal article

Inverse Product Differentiation Logit model: Holy Grail or Not?

01 March 2024

KAPSARC journal article

Navigating Energy Diplomacy in Times of Recovery and Conflict: A Study of Cross-border Energy Trade Dynamics

29 February 2024

Transportation & Infrastructure

Workshop brief

Towards Energy-Efficient and Sustainable Cities

25 February 2024

the world continues to grow and urbanize, the significance of cities will also increase. Urban development is lengthy and costly, justifying the need for effective urban planning. Urban planning is a complex process with many often competing objectives, including sustainability and e...

Workshop brief

Saudi-China Collaboration in the Context of a Circular Carbon Economy: Priorities and Opportunities in the Globalization of Hydrogen Markets

25 February 2024

Developing clean hydrogen industries and markets are strategically crucial for Saudi Arabia and China to achieve their net-zero climate goals. Saudi Arabia has made significant progress in hydrogen development from extraction to commercialization. Different options for galvanizing cl...

Data Insight

The Role of Circular Economy for Plastic Waste Management

17 February 2024

In March 2022, in Resolution 5/14, the United Nations Environment Assembly requested that the UN Environment Programme set up an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, which included the marine environment....

KAPSARC journal article

01 February 2024

This quarter’s oil demand highlights include another muted quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) demand growth in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, while non-OECD countries experienced greater growth. Continued monetary tightening policies, fears over weakening sign...

The Status of Nuclear Energy in Saudi Arabia: A Strategic Approach to Energy Security and Sustainability

Climate & Sustainability

Report

The Status of Nuclear Energy in Saudi Arabia: A Strategic Approach to Energy Security and Sustainability

01 February 2024

Saudi Arabia’s strategic adoption of nuclear energy, in alignment with Vision 2030, represents a crucial step towards energy security and sustainability. The integration of nuclear power offers grid stability, low emissions, cost-effective electricity g... Read full report on here

Will Small Modular Reactors Drive the Envisioned Expansion of Nuclear Energy Within the Energy Transition?

Climate & Sustainability

Report

Will Small Modular Reactors Drive the Envisioned Expansion of Nuclear Energy Within the Energy Transition?

01 February 2024

This paper evaluates the role of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in the global shift towards sustainable energy, driven by the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. It highlights nuclear energy’s importance for achieving Net Zero Emissi... Read Full Report here

Data Insight

India’s Shift Toward Alternative Fuel Vehicles: An Overview

30 January 2024

As the second-largest automobile market in the world, India has been actively working towards promoting cleaner transportation and reducing its carbon footprint. This paper analyzes the sales trends of vehicles by different vehicle type and provide an overview of the composi...

Instant Insight

Insights About the Third Session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to Develop an International Legally Binding Instrument on Plastic Pollution

22 January 2024

The third session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) on Plastic Pollution took place in Nairobi, Kenya, from November 13-19, 2023. This session marks the third of five planned gatherings aimed at developing a global agreement to address the issue of plastic pollutio...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

IMO GHG Emission Reduction Strategy: Insight into the Alignment of Saudi Arabia’s Efforts at Maritime Decarbonization

19 February 2024

session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80), where they adopted a revised strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping (KSA IMO 2023c). The initial GHG emission strategy was adopted in 2018 during the MEPC 72, and since then, the...

Climate & Sustainability

Discussion paper

Saudi Arabia Net-Zero GHG Emissions by 2060: Transformation of the Transport Sector

22 January 2024

Decarbonizing the transport sector will likely play a crucial role for Saudi Arabia in fulfilling its target of reaching net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2060. While clear and immediate low-carbon or zero-carbon alternatives exist in some sectors, the transport sector faces...

Commentary

The Role of Intelligent Transportation Systems and Artificial Intelligence in Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction

22 January 2024

Despite the technological advancements in the transportation sector, the industry continues to grapple with increasing energy consumption and vehicular emissions, which intensify environmental degradation and climate change. The inefficient management of traffic flow, the underutiliz...

Commentary

Assessing the Impact of Electric Vehicle Penetration on Electricity Demand in Riyadh

22 January 2024

This paper aims to assess and estimate the impact of electric vehicle (EV) penetration on annual electricity demand, specifically in Riyadh, the capital city of Saudi Arabia. Such an assessment can yield significant insights for stakeholders, including policymakers, energy planners, ...

Workshop brief

Future of Hydrogen in Mobility

22 January 2024

he signing and subsequent ratification of the 2015 Paris Agreement, followed by the consequent net-zero emission target pledges of individual countries, have galvanized the global focus on decarbonization activities. The transport sector contributes almost a quarter of all energy-rel...

Commentary

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and Energy Consumption – Global and Local Contexts

04 January 2024

There is growing concern about the environmental impact of transport systems. The increase in energy consumption and vehicle emissions is the main contributor to the problem. Several studies have tested hypotheses about the relationship between the urban structure, especially high de...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Discussion paper

Behavioral Efficiency Improvement via Freight Digitalization as a Viable Near- Term Strategy to Decarbonize the Difficult-To-Abate Road Freight Sector in China and Other Developing Countries

04 January 2024

The containment of road freight transport emission growth is a significant challenge to climate change mitigation, as the road freight sector has been one of the fastest growing sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is considered particularly difficult to decarbonize (ITF 202...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Impact on Energy Consumption and Emissions of Variations in Aircraft Seating Density Designation from Manufacturers’ Recommendations

04 January 2024

Aircraft capacity utilization is an important factor in airline productivity, but airlines are not using the maximum seating density designations recommended by manufacturers to accurately represent efficiency or performance.

Workshop brief

Saudi-China Collaboration Under the Circular Carbon Economy: Priorities and Opportunities in CCUS

02 January 2024

Rising ambitions for an energy transition are changing how energy suppliers and consumers think about fuel supply chains. These energy transition ambitions have revitalized interest in alternative energies and technological solutions that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to comb...

KAPSARC journal article

Consumer Preferences for Ride-hailing: Barriers to an Autonomous, Shared, and Electric Future

01 January 2024

Oil & Gas

Commentary

The Importance of the Suez Canal for Global Energy Flow

26 December 2023

On March 23, 2021, the Ever Given, a northbound ship loaded with more than 18,000 containers from China to the Netherlands drifted off course and became stuck in a single-lane section of the Suez Canal. As a result, hundreds of ships carrying food, oil, chemicals, and other goods wer...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Methodology paper

Estimating Car Price Elasticity Using an Inverse Product Differentiation Logit Model

26 December 2023

Since the seminal work of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995), random coefficient logit (RCL) has become the workhorse model for estimating demand elasticities in markets with differentiated products using aggregated sales data. While the ability to represent flexible substitution pat...

Transportation & Infrastructure

Commentary

Urban Transportation Challenges in Saudi Arabia: Micromobility as a Solution to First and Last Mile

24 December 2023

The transportation sector plays a significant role in global carbon emissions and environmental challenges. On a worldwide scale, the aggregate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attributed to transportation amount to approximately 14.3% of total emissions. Notably, road transport emissi...

Climate & Sustainability

Workshop brief

Energy-Efficient Policy in the Built Environment: From Formulation to Implementation

24 December 2023

Building energy efficiency is a critical component of efforts to address climate change and achieve sustainable development and can potentially reduce greenhouse gas emissions, save money, lower energy bills, create new jobs, and improve occupants’ indoor comfort and quality of life....

Data Insight

Saudi Arabia’s High Borrowing Rates and Surging Deposits

14 December 2023

Rise in Other Quasi-Money Deposits: The paper also examines the implications of a record-high in other quasi-money deposits, signifying an increased interest in alternative ways to save and invest money. This trend may be a response to changing economic conditions, attractive intere...

Report

Role Of LPG In Enabling A Just And Inclusive Energy Transition In Africa And The Arab Region

14 December 2023

Globally, 2.3 billion people still lack access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (CFTs) today, with an overwhelming majority residing in rural areas. Without a dramatic increase in investment and action for scalable solutions, 1.9 billion people will remain without access t...

Report

Will Government Support for CCS-EOR Lead to Reduced Emissions?

14 December 2023

Government support for CCS-EOR projects is often contested on the grounds that the resulting increase in oil production undermines their environmental benefits. This paper summarizes a simple approach based on a marginal reasoning consistent with economic decision-making. It produces...

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Enabling Blue Hydrogen for a Low- Carbon Future: Certifying Emissions and CO2 Storage

14 December 2023

As part of a diverse energy portfolio, hydrogen can support global efforts toward transitioning to a more sustainable energy system. This would align with climate goals, such as those outlined in the Paris Agreement. For hydrogen to fulfill this potential, its production method needs...

KAPSARC journal article

04 December 2023

Road-traffic relief is essential for big cities. It can be achieved by various infrastructure improvements to remove the reliance on motorized vehicles by optimizing different modes of urban mobility.

Discussion paper

Net Zero Emissions in Saudi Arabia by 2060: Least-Cost Pathways, Influence of International Oil Price, and Economic Consequences

30 November 2023

This paper presents possible net zero emissions (NZE) trajectories for Saudi Arabia at horizon 2060 and analyzes their possible economic consequences. We use an in-house hybrid forward-looking general equilibrium model of the Saudi economy. We construct a baseline scenario where the ...

Commentary

Powering the Future of Aviation: Exploring the Role of Hydrogen and Power-to- Liquid in Sustainable Aviation Fuels

30 November 2023

emissions by 80% (Airbus 2023). The aviation industry aims to produce enough SAFs to meet aviation fuel demand by 2050, with power-to-liquid (PtL) technology emerging as an alternative pathway for SAF production. This paper provides insights into the application and deployment of th...

Discussion paper

Long-Term Decarbonization Pathway for Saudi Arabia To Reach Net Zero GHG Emissions by 2060

29 November 2023

Saudi Arabia is a signatory to the 2015 Paris Agreement. It has updated its nation...₂ eq) by 2030. In the lead-up to COP 26 and joining the global efforts, under the umbrella program of the Saudi Green Initiative, Saudi Arabia announced its pledge to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.

Data Insight

Worldwide intraregional and interregional air passenger traffic volume distribution

23 November 2023

Aviation, like other transport modes, is essential for the economy; it facilitates business and trade, allows people to connect with different regions/cities, and generate tourism. Air traffic at the country or regional level is quite interesting by analyzing and comparing its r...

Report

Gasoline and Diesel Prices in the OECD, China, and India: How Do They Behave During Volatile Times?

22 November 2023

. Together, they have compiled a dataset aimed at elucidating how the prices of gasoline and diesel evolved during this three-year span and which factors played a more significant role in determining the prices. Presented at a country level on a monthly basis, the data facilitates th...

Utilities & Renewables

Data Insight

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation in 2022

21 November 2023

We briefly comment on global solar PV installations for 2022, and provide insights on the record-breaking trend that this industry has been witnessing for the past 15 years.

Oil & Gas

Discussion paper

Is the Shale Oil Rush Over?

20 November 2023

he California Gold Rush was a time of exuberance and technological development in the mining sector and exhibits significant parallels with shale development that are worth exploring. The easy wins of the pioneers gave way to larger organizations with better funding and technology, s...

Discussion paper

Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Deployment of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage Pathways (BECCS) Globally

20 November 2023

) from processes that utilize bioenergy to produce heat, electricity or biofuels. However, thi...₂ ($/tCO₂), respectively. Other technologies, such as poplar pellets, forest residue and agricultural residue with trans-Atlantic shipments, are not able to achieve negative emissions.

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

13 November 2023

This quarter’s oil demand highlights include muted quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) demand growth from OECD countries, while non-OECD countries are experiencing declines in line with seasonal patterns. Monetary tightening policies, particularly in OECD countries, have stalled due to ongoing ...

Discussion paper

Implications of Climate Policy on Energy Poverty

13 November 2023

This article examines the complex issue of energy poverty and its various dimensions, including energy access and affordability. It explores the challenges of addressing energy poverty and the trade-offs that may exist between energy poverty and climate change policy.

Discussion paper

Energy Policy Pathways to Inform Climate Policy in Saudi Arabia

13 November 2023

e). In this regard, this paper contributes a modeling view of the climate-related effects of various energy policies on the Saudi energy system. The baseline entails the continued progression of current domestic policies ...₂ emissions equal to those displayed in the announced policies.

Commentary

Eyes Off the Prize? Labor Flows in the Saudi Oil Industry 2019-2023

13 November 2023

While much attention has been paid recently to oil and gas investment gaps, there has also been a rising chorus of analyses highlighting an emerging talent gap in traditional energy industries.

KAPSARC journal article

01 November 2023

The energy transition is fundamentally transforming geopolitics, with renewable energy and other decarbonization options reshaping existing energy markets, trade flows, and energy security strategies. What new opportunities and challenges await us? Will it p... Read Book Chapter

KAPSARC journal article

The Effects of a Shock to Critical Minerals Prices on the World Oil Price and Inflation

01 November 2023

Data Insight

Worldwide Intraregional and Interregional Air Freight Traffic Volume Distribution

26 October 2023

Freight by air does not comprise a significant share of the worldwide tonnage due to its cost compared to land (road and rail) and sea transport. However, air freight is important for commodities that either have high values or are time-sensitive. For instance, documents, perishable ...

Data Insight

Global Crude Oil Refining Capacities

26 October 2023

Global crude oil refining capacities are presented according to the classification of global refineries in the KOVA model. The evolution of Saudi Arabian refining capacities and configurations between 2005 and 2020 is also presented.

Commentary

Recent Developments and Trends in Cybersecurity in the Power Sector

24 October 2023

ny policymakers now see the use of low-carbon hydrogen as a strong contender in terms of how to achieve climate neutrality goals. Currently, hydrogen is used in refinery processing, ammonia production, or methanol production as feedstock, where no other alternatives exist...₂ emissions.

Discussion paper

Interfuel Substitution in the Industrial Sector in Saudi Arabia

23 October 2023

he Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has taken many decisive steps toward a more sustainable future, in line with its Vision 2030, including the use of c...₂emissions target. A ridge regression method is used to estimate the parameters of the translog production function for the period 1990–2020.

Discussion paper

Modeling the Determinants of Electric Vehicle Adoption: A Saudi Perspective

23 October 2023

his study aims to contribute to the literature by shedding light on consumers’ acceptance of electric vehicles (EVs) in Riyadh and their potential response to adoption incentives. A stated preference experiment (SPE) was developed and then incorporated into an online stated preferenc...

Discussion paper

The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks

22 October 2023

, the estimated export equations were integrated into a general equilibrium model, called the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), and a scenario analysis was conducted for the diversification implicati...until 2035.

Commentary

Household Expenditure Survey, Housing and Energy Costs in Saudi Arabia

22 October 2023

The Household Income and Expenditure Survey for Saudi Arabia was conducted by statistical agency GASTAT in 1999, 2007, 2013 and 2018. In this economic commentary, we discuss some of the key findings and developments over the period under consideration. We devote particular attention ...

Discussion paper

Employment Potential of Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia: A Value Chain Analysis

22 October 2023

This paper looks at the employment possibilities across the value chain of solar PV and onshore wind and, applying the unique characteristics of the Saudi labor force, investigates where localization mandates should target in order to optimize the benefits to the Saudi econom...

Book/book chapter

Smart Cities from an Indian Perspective: Evolving Ambitions

15 October 2023

Indian urban infrastructure is in the middle of a massive build-up. For several decades, Indian cities were caught between the demands of an exploding population and the need to provide infrastructure in terms of health, education, transport, and services to... Read Book Chapter

Discussion paper

Closing the Investment Gap to Achieve Paris Agreement Goals

09 October 2023

his study aims to assess the alignment of global sustainable financial flows with transition investment priorities. First, we identify investment gaps based on the difference between the required annual investment to meet global net-zero emissions (NZE) targets and current inve...

Instant Insight

The Economic and Energy Transformation in Saudi Arabia: Exploring the Role of Strategic Investments

03 October 2023

This Instant Insight reviews Saudi Arabia’s capital expenditure (central government capital expenditure + public investment fund [PIF] expenditure), which is a key component of its fiscal policy. Capital expenditure stimulates the primary goal of economic diversification, a structura...

Instant Insight

India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor: Bridging Economic and Digital Aspirations

02 October 2023

The announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) during the 2023 Group of 20 (G20) Summit in New Delhi marks a significant development for the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) initiative. The PGII formation was announced in 20...

KAPSARC journal article

Modeling and forecasting industrial electricity demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering regional characteristics

01 October 2023

KAPSARC journal article

Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter for Saudi Arabia?

26 September 2023

Commentary

Modeling of the Interconnected Middle East and North Africa Electricity System: Including Uncertainties to Better Inform Policymakers

26 September 2023

The modeling of power systems can bring about insightful quantitative results to inform policymakers. This commentary reviews the literature on modeling the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s electricity interconnections and trade in the context of expanding variable and in...

Workshop brief

Carbon Markets in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: Accelerating Robust Market Development and Promoting Regional Cooperation

26 September 2023

As both regulated and VCMs take off in Saudi Arabia and across the GCC region, KAPSARC is seeking to help inform and support their robust development in two ways. The first is to keep track of the rapidly evolving global market landscape. Questions here relate to both how governance...

Methodology paper

World Oil and Critical Mineral Study: A Global VAR Analysis

26 September 2023

ritical minerals (CMs), such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth metals, are essential for the development of clean energy technologies across the whole value chain of wind and solar power, electricity networks, and electric vehicles (EVs). Demand for these minerals is expecte...

Methodology paper

Global Crude Oil Refinery Models: Parametric and Nonparametric Methods

26 September 2023

Crude oil refineries produce finished petroleum products through a series of processing steps known as refinery unit operations. The varieties and capacities of process units, along with their operational characteristics, differentiate one refinery from another. Over the years, the...

Discussion paper

Reconsidering Inventories: An International Strategy for Strategic Storage Assets

26 September 2023

he purpose of this report is to recommend an interconnected regional and international strategy to share the burden of developing and maintaining commercial and strategic storage infrastructure for Saudi crude oil and products through an alliance with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GC...

Commentary

Renewable Energy and Job Creation: An Automation Risk Assessment

20 September 2023

14 September 2023

The aviation sector is a fast-growing industry that contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. To address this issue, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) set aspirational emissions goals and introduced the Carbon Offsetting and Reductio...

Report

Expert Survey Assessment of Emerging Maritime Decarbonization Challenges and Priorities

14 September 2023

The decarbonization of the maritime sector has emerged as a global concern due to the shipping sector’s 3% contribution to world’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Notably, the latest developments involving the adoption of more ambitious GHG reduction targets by the Internationa...

Discussion paper

Macroeconomic, Energy and Emission Effects of Solar PV Deployment at Utility and Distributed Scales in Saudi Arabia

14 September 2023

This study assesses the macroeconomic, energy and emissions impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the period 2021–2030. This is accomplished by linking an energy and environmental sector augmented macroeconometric model with a power model a...

Discussion paper

Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

14 September 2023

Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to was...

KAPSARC journal article

Fiscal Policy in Oil and Gas-exporting Economies: Good Times, Bad Times and Ugly Times

12 September 2023

Instant Insight

Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa: Potential Roadways to A New Global Governance Mechanism for Energy and Climate

11 September 2023

The recent regionalization of global politics and trade has placed Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) at the forefront of the geopolitical agenda.

Instant Insight

What Could Happen to the Oil Market if Iran’s and Venezuela’s Sanctions Are Lifted?

11 September 2023

Disagreements between oil producers and consumers for keeping a stable market has resulted in actions from both sides, elevating concerns about the near future stability of the oil sector. On one side, producers have concerns about future demand uncertainties, while consumers look fo...

KAPSARC journal article

Saudi Arabia Energy Transition in a Post-paris Agreement Era: An Analysis with a Multi-level Perspective Approach

11 September 2023

Data Insight

Saudi Arabia’s Input-Output Table: Computing Type I Multiplier

05 September 2023

These releases have extended the number of sectors representing the Saudi Arabian economy to 20 from the 13 sectors typically reported in GDP official reports. This disaggregation of sectors in the input-output table is valuable for analyzing new sector developments and targeted sect...

Data Insight

Aggregate Real Energy Price Index

05 September 2023

Our aggregate real energy index is constructed in two steps. First, sectoral energy prices are obtained from Hasanov et al (2020). Second, the index is constructed by calculating a weighted average of these sectoral energy prices, in which the weight for each sector is its contributi...

Commentary

An Overview of Integration Costs of Variable Renewables in the Power Sector

04 September 2023

In recent years, the cost of electricity generated by renewables has significantly decreased to the point where it is cost competitive with conventional plants. However, incorporating variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies like wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) into the power s...

Commentary

The Race to Offset Emissions from Airlines— How Is It Developing?

03 September 2023

) emissions, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicating that the growth in aviation in the last decade has been faster than that of roads, rail, or shipping. The pandemic has provided a unique situation in which the airline industry was brought to a halt due to pandemic me...

Instant Insight

Electricity Balancing Market in the United Kingdom: Time to Rebalance Participants’ Interests

30 August 2023

During the four months of winter (November to February) of 2021/22, the costs of keeping supply and demand matched through the United Kingdom’s electricity balancing market reached a record high of over £1.5 billion.

Commentary

Future Fuel Demand From the Saudi Shipping Sector: A Business-as-Usual Estimation

21 August 2023

The purpose of this commentary is to suggest a rough estimation of future exp...

A global average energy intensity of 0.078 megajoules per tonne-kilometers (MJ/tonne-km).
An average export distance of 5,441 nautical miles (nm) between Saudi Arabia and export trading partner countries.

Commentary

Heralding a New Era in Trade Between the GCC, Africa and Asia

21 August 2023

Global geopolitical dynamics are altering trade flows of petrochemicals and chemical products from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. These include the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacting access to cheap gas for industrial activities in Europe, and protectionist ener...

KAPSARC journal article

Environmental Consequences of Geopolitical Crises: The Case of Economic Sanctions and Emissions

20 August 2023

Commentary

Carbon-neutral LNG in Japan: Drivers and Perspectives

17 August 2023

In 2019, a new phenomenon – so-called “carbon-neutral liquified natural gas” (LNG) – was introduced into gas markets. It originated from two shipments delivered by Shell in June 2019 to the Japanese utility Tokyo Gas and a Korean energy company, GS Energy. The only difference from co...

Report

Circular Carbon Economy: Least-Cost Path to Net Zero

16 August 2023

emissions with removals. ‘Net-zero’ has become a shorthand phrase to describe how governments, companies, and others should respond to climate change challenges and to the implementation of the Paris Agreement. However, there is no standard definition of what exactly net-zero entail...

KAPSARC journal article

Making Electricity Capacity Markets Resilient to Extreme Weather Events

14 August 2023

KAPSARC journal article

10 August 2023

KAPSARC journal article

Systematically Mapping Innovations in Electricity Using Startups: A Comprehensive Database Analysis

07 August 2023

KAPSARC journal article

الطاقة المتجددة في دول الخليج العربية: الوضع الراهن والتحديات وخيارات السياسات

07 August 2023

Commentary

Enabling the Progress of the Circular Carbon Economy: India’s Approach to CCUS

03 August 2023

The circular carbon economy (CCE) concept is an extension of the idea of a circular economy, focusing on energy and carbon flows while implicitly retaining the circular economy’s material, energy, water, and economic flows. The goal of the CCE framework is to achieve a carbon balance...

KAPSARC journal article

How Does Concrete and Cement Industry Transformation Contribute to Mitigating Climate Change Challenges?

02 August 2023

KAPSARC journal article

Energy Efficiency and Residential Energy Consumption: Current Challenges, Policies, and Emerging Trends

02 August 2023

KAPSARC journal article

New Oxford Energy Forum – The Evolution of Carbon Markets and their Role in Climate Mitigation and Sustainable Development – Issue 132

30 July 2023

Discussion paper

Fuel Efficiency in Saudi Arabia’s Aviation Sector: Progress and Future Implications

25 July 2023

Despite the fast global expansion of the aviation industry, due to its sustainability issues, the industry’s concerns about energy efficiency and emissions are still very important. Studying the changing energy consumption patterns in Saudi Arabia is crucial, as the country is expect...

KAPSARC journal article

18 July 2023

Estimates of regional energy consumption and carbon emissions could be useful for agencies investigating the effects of regionally targeted investments and policy interventions. Using gasoline consumption in Saudi Arabia as a case study, we develop two approaches for estimating the r...

KAPSARC journal article

Multi-city Assessments of Human Exposure to Extreme Heat During Heat Waves in the United States

06 July 2023

Discussion paper

Fiscal Policy in Oil and Gas-Exporting Economies: Good Times, Bad Times and Ugly Times

04 July 2023

Revenues from oil and gas exports represent an important source of government budgets in some emerging countries. At the same time, these revenues fluctuate considerably due to changing global economic conditions and energy prices. Economic theory prescribes that governments should t...

KAPSARC journal article

Carbon Markets and Related Opportunities for the Gulf

30 June 2023

Discussion paper

Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?

25 June 2023

One of the key benefits of understanding regional electricity consumption and its response to policy changes is enhancing the decision-making process. In Saudi Arabia, energy policies are set at the national level, and assessing their impacts at the regional level provides valuable i...

Discussion paper

Plastic to Oil: Saudi Arabia and Global Perspectives

22 June 2023

ay, it is impossible to im...waste plastic disposal. According to the “OECD Global Plastic Outlook” published in 2022, global plastic waste production increased by more than 2.25 times between 2000 and 2019 to 353.3 million tons (MMT). However, only 9% of that plastic waste is recycled.

KAPSARC journal article

Oil and Non-Oil Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations

19 June 2023

The Viability of Energy Efficiency in Facilitating Saudi Arabia&#8217;s Journey Toward Net-zero Emissions

KAPSARC journal article

The Viability of Energy Efficiency in Facilitating Saudi Arabia’s Journey Toward Net-zero Emissions

19 June 2023

Discussion paper

Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations

18 June 2023

udi Vision 2030 aims to improve Saudi Arabia’s ranking on the Global Competitiveness Index from 25 in 2015–2016 to within the top 10 by 2030. It also strives to increase the share of non-oil exports in non-oil GDP from 16% in 2016 to 50% by 2030. To achieve these goals, decision-maki...

Commentary

Floating LNG: A Solution for the European Gas Supply Crisis?

17 June 2023

The European energy crisis started in the second half of 2021 and was aggravated in 2022 by geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, explosions on the crucial Nord Stream pipelines that bring a significant portion of Russian gas to Europe and unplanned nuclear outages and low hydro l...

Commentary

Will King Salman International Airport Be One of the Largest Airports in the World?

15 June 2023

In April 2016, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman launched Saudi Vision 2030, which is a comprehensive strategy for the economic and social development of Saudi Arabia. Its objectives include diversifying the Saudi economy, boosting tourism, increasing trade, generating new jobs and ec...

Commentary

Revisions to the National Accounts as a Precursor to the Creation of Input–Output Tables

14 June 2023

KAPSARC has an ongoing research project on input–output IO) tables. These tables provide a summary record for a particular year of the transactions between economic sectors and between different agents in the economy.

Commentary

What Innovations Are Chinese Electricity Startups Pursuing?

13 June 2023

We provide a snapshot of the innovations that Chinese electricity startups are pursuing and compare them with the innovation efforts of their worldwide and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) counterparts. We contrast types of innovation, technological domains and focuses on megatrends wi...

Methodology paper

Urban Transport Energy Demand Model for Riyadh: Methodology and Preliminary Analysis

13 June 2023

equivalent annually by 2030, according to its Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Among many policies it is introducing, a mass transit system and transit-oriented development are being advanced with the expectati...

Commentary

Challenges Facing the Circular Economy That Aims to Improve Electric Vehicle Sector Sustainability

13 June 2023

Governments around the world are increasingly focusing on the future of transportation, particularly road transportation, to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution. As the shift to low-carbon transportation continues, the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are e...

Commentary

Can Hybrid Solar Projects Pave the Way for Concentrated Solar Power Development?

12 June 2023

Hybrid renewable energy systems combine two or more technologies that complement each other to generate clean and stable power output. These systems could be two renewable energy systems (e.g., solar and wind) or renewables with storage (e.g., with battery or thermal storage). Their ...

Discussion paper

06 June 2023

As a party to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees and keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Saudi Arabia has submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC). NDCs are essentially climate action plans th...

Discussion paper

The Dynamic Role of Subsidies in Promoting Global Electric Vehicle Sales

06 June 2023

We offer the most comprehensive analysis to date of global plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) subsidies. We accomplish this by estimating vehicle choice models for 23 countries using 2010–2019 sales data and using counterfactual simulations to assess the cost-effectiveness of PEV incent...

Methodology paper

Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia

05 June 2023

This paper utilizes a structural time series approach to model Saudi Arabia’s regional electricity demand, capturing undetected forces of variability in the data-generating process that include improvements in technology, energy-saving behavior, and other underlying trends tha...

Commentary

Energy Transition Amid Converging Global Energy Crises

04 June 2023

In this commentary, we provide a discussion of the factors that have led to the ongoing spike in natural gas prices. We then discuss the potential short- and long-term implications for the global energy transition and for users of natural gas, both residential and industrial. The ana...

Instant Insight

The Limit, Save, and Grow Act and Possible Scenarios for the Future of the Inflation Reduction Act

04 June 2023

The IRA has already begun delivering tangible benefits in the U.S., with much of it going to Republican districts. While LGSA has brought House Speaker McCarthy into the national spotlight, he does not have sufficient political clout to pursue a reversal of the IRA, especially when i...

KAPSARC journal article

14 May 2023

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are a critical component of strategies to decarbonize the electricity sector. As the costs of solar panels and electric vehicles decline, distribution systems will host an increasing number of DERs. Successful implementation requires determining th...

Discussion paper

Choosing to Diet: The Impact and Cost-effectiveness of China’s Vehicle Ownership Restrictions

14 May 2023

Can voluntary carbon emission reduction pledges, such as the nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, result in significant emission reductions? According to prominent experts such as Nordhaus (2015), Barrett (2005), and Weitzman (2019), free-riding is un...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

14 May 2023

This quarter’s demand highlights show competition between seasonality and economics in each country, with one factor limiting growth while the other enhances quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) demand to new levels.

Discussion paper

The Energy Transition and Export Diversification in Oil-Dependent Countries: The Role of Structural Factors

11 May 2023

e energy transition toward decarbonization is expected to impact producers of fossil fuels. However, oil-exporting countries are currently key players in the modern economy. Thus, the energy transition will not be successful if state revenues in these countries are not stably maintai...

Methodology paper

Modeling the Distribution and Transshipment of Refined Oil Products

11 May 2023

KAPSARC has developed an optimization model to characterize the distribution of oil products after the refining stage. The model ensures that the demand for any group of refined oil products is simultaneously met while minimizing the social costs associated with the distribution syst...

Discussion paper

Modeling Factors Affecting the Choice to Use the Proposed Riyadh Metro System

11 May 2023

e Riyadh metro system is being implemented as a sustainable transport option that will offer reliable, affordable and comfortable urban mobility. It is important to understand the factors influencing the likelihood that people will use the new metro system. Thus, this study’s key obj...

Discussion paper

Baseline Forecasts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

11 May 2023

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Saudi Arabia submitted a baseline emissions reduction target as part of its nationally determined contribution. The baseline target rests on the development of a baseline emissions scenario. This is a counterfactual scenario that shows how emissions...

KAPSARC journal article

Modeling Cross-seasonal Fuel Savings From Load Shifting in the Saudi Industrial Sector and Interlinkages to Export Revenues

10 May 2023

Workshop brief

Advancing the Circular Carbon Economy in Saudi Arabia

10 May 2023

In May 2022, the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) co-organized an event titled “Advancing the Circular Carbon Economy in Saudi Arabia.” The one-day event, which comprised a high-level event a...

Discussion paper

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

10 May 2023

croeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first estima...

KAPSARC journal article

Chapter 2: Geopolitics and energy security issues in India

09 May 2023

This book chapter assesses the issues related to the Indian energy sector through a geopolitical and energy security lens, focusing on the energy access and economic drivers that have helped shape these lenses historically and their impact on the future. The energy needs of the India...

Commentary

The Rebound Effect in Residential Energy Demand: The Case of Saudi Arabia

08 May 2023

Although the rebound effect phenomenon h...^th-century economist Stanley Jevons (Jevons, 1865). Jevons, in his book The Coal Question (1865), postulated that energy consumption would increase with increasing industrial efficiency as individuals produce and consume more goods.

Workshop brief

The Volatility of Crude Oil Prices and the Mitigation of Oil Price Risk

08 May 2023

The COVID-19 pandemic was one of the greatest challenges of modern times. More than two years since its onset, the global oil market has yet to regain any semblance of balance or stability. The future remains extremely uncertain. The pandemic and Russian operations in Ukraine have s...

KAPSARC journal article

Decarbonizing the Residential Sector: How Prominent is Household Energy-Saving Behavior in Decision Making?

08 May 2023

Chapter 5: China&#8217;s energy investment through the lens of the Belt and Road Initiative

Book/book chapter

Chapter 5: China’s energy investment through the lens of the Belt and Road Initiative

01 May 2023

President Xi Jinping announced the BRI in 2013 during his official visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia. The vision for a Silk Road Economic Belt connecting Central Asia and Europe was outlined in his speech in Kazakhstan, and the roadmap for a Maritime Silk... Click here to read the book

KAPSARC journal article

Oil Rents and Non-oil Economic Growth in CIS Oil Exporters. The Role of Financial Development

01 May 2023

KAPSARC journal article

What Would it Take for the People of Riyadh City to Shift From Their Cars to the Proposed Metro?

30 April 2023

Instant Insight

Exploring the Effect of a Transportation Subsidy on Saudi Arabia’s Main Labor Force Indicators

30 April 2023

As part of the strategic roadmap for Saudi Vision 2030, the Saudi Arabian government set a goal in 2017 to increase female participation in the workforce from 22% to 30%. This goal falls under objective 4, Increase Employment, of the Human Capability Development Program.

Workshop brief

CO2 Emissions Reduction Progress and Future Perspectives in Aviation

18 April 2023

emissions from aviation are a priority for policymakers, researchers, entities, and governments worldwide. Traditional approaches to analyzing the aviation sector must be modified because aviation practices are no longer supply driven. In fact, the recent increase in environm...

Commentary

Seasonal Adjustment of GDP Time Series – Private Sector Component

09 April 2023

For analysts, the seasonal adjustment of GDP and its components is an important one to make because it enables practitioners to better understand the makeup of each individual GDP series. There may be structural and cyclical elements, as well as elements that show repeat patte...

Discussion paper

How Responsive Are New Car Buyers in India and China to Factors Driving Fuel Consumption?

09 April 2023

China and India, the world’s two most populous developing economies, are also among the largest automotive markets and carbon emitters. To reduce carbon emissions from the passenger car sector, both countries have considered various policy levers that affect fuel price, car pr...

Commentary

Regional Energy Cooperation: Opportunities to Enhance the Saudi-India Relationship

09 April 2023

Saudi Arabia and India, two of the fastest growing economies globally, play important roles in South Asia and the Middle East, respectively. Saudi-India relations have started to acquire a strategic dimension owing to the countries’ growing business opportunities, rising investment ...

KAPSARC journal article

Electric Vehicle Subsidies: Time to Accelerate or Pump the Brakes?

04 April 2023

Commentary

Can Circularity-Based Approaches Prevent a Cobalt Supply Shortfall?

04 April 2023

Electric vehicle batteries rely heavily on a small number of critical minerals, including cobalt. Cobalt metal prices have doubled over the past year as a result of a mismatch between supply and demand, particularly for electric car batteries (Hume 2022).

Discussion paper

The Ban on Long-Term Natural Gas Contracts for the European Union: A Double-Edged Sword?

04 April 2023

Long-term natural gas contracts are necessary market instruments that provide supply security for customers and demand security for producers. Nevertheless, the European Commission recently announced a plan to ban long-term contracts for unabated fossil gas after 2049. This study sh...

Data Insight

Real Gross Domestic Income for Saudi Arabia From 1986 to 2021

04 April 2023

A country’s national income is defined as the total market value of its output. The most used measure for national income is gross domestic product (GDP). One way to estimate GDP for a country is to sum its government consumption, private consumption, investment, and exports minus i...

Workshop brief

Understanding Phantom Oil

26 March 2023

Phantom oil is oil that is deliberately moved from legally recognized sources or traded in the black market. It is also frequently referred to as illegal, illicit, tacit, or unregistered oil. This oil is generally concealed from the energy community for various reasons, including to...

Workshop brief

Saudi-China Collaboration on Renewable Energy Supply Chains

21 March 2023

Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have reinforced their interest in enhancing domestic value creation from renewable energy industries while striving to achieve their green energy transition targets. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has identified key...

Workshop brief

Accelerating the Demand for and International Trade in Low-Carbon Hydrogen

21 March 2023

Hydrogen is projected to play an important role in meeting decarbonization targets. Hydrocarbon-rich countries perceive this as an opportunity to decarbonize existing assets and monetize undeveloped hydrocarbon reserves. Meanwhile, non-traditional energy exporters rich in renewable ...

Commentary

Saudi Arabia’s Potential to Further Hydrogen Use in the Maritime Sector

21 March 2023

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in Glasgow focussed on advancing low-carbon fuels to reach emissions abatement targets. The conference also reaffirmed the goals of the Paris Agreement: to secure global net-zero emissions by mid-century and limit the glob...

Discussion paper

Impacts of Global Climate Policies on Middle Eastern Oil Exporters: A Review of Economic Implications and Mitigation Strategies

21 March 2023

Climate policies are tightening in an effort to curb carbon dioxide emissions. As a result, global oil demand may peak and gradually decline, causing oil prices to fall. A structural fall in oil prices may have serious implications for Middle Eastern oil exporters. Many studies atte...

KAPSARC journal article

Modeling final energy demand and the impacts of energy price reform in Saudi Arabia

10 March 2023

Instant Insight

Consult Within: Analyzing the Recent Decision to Localize Consultancy Professions in Saudi Arabia

09 March 2023

In October 2022, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (MHRSD) issued a decision mandating the progressive localization of consultancy professions up to 40% by the end of March 2024. Such targeted localization (or Saudization) of specific professions is no...

Discussion paper

How Firm Capacity and Forced Outage Rate Assumptions of Renewables Impact Capacity Expansion Model Results

09 March 2023

The undergoing energy transition relies heavily on the deployment of renewables such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power for the generation of electricity. These variable and intermittent resources would modify power systems’ reliability compared to the situation where electric...

Workshop brief

A Global Hydrogen Future

06 March 2023

-APPENDIX C3:...click here)
4. Appendix D: Workshop Presentations (click here)
5. APPENDIX E: POST-WORKSHOP SURVEY
-APPENDIX E1: EFI-KAPSARC- A Global Hydrogen Future Workshop Survey Summary (click here)
-APPENDIX E2: A Global Hydrogen Future Workshop Survey Results (click here)

Discussion paper

Regional Fuel Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Saudi Arabia: Impacts of Electricity Price Reforms

05 March 2023

Evaluating the potential outcomes of energy price reforms is essential for policymakers to assess their effectiveness. In 2016 and 2018, the Saudi government enacted two waves of energy price reforms to curb historically fast-growing electricity demand. We quantify the effects...

Instant Insight

Is the Recent Price Spike in Electric Vehicle Lithium-Ion Battery Packs Temporary or the Start of a New Trend?

05 March 2023

Most nations are evaluating vehicle electrification as a way to decarbonize their passenger car sectors. To make electric vehicles competitive with conventional vehicles for cost-conscious consumers, the upfront purchase price of electric vehicles needs to fall. The battery pack is t...

Commentary

Key Improvements in the Saudi Aviation Sector: Exploring the Performance of the Passenger Load Factor

05 March 2023

Aviation is a significant contributor to the global economy, given that it, directly and indirectly, contributes to jobs, tourism, trade, and countries’ gross domestic product (GDP). However, environmental issues, technological advances, consumer behavior, energy consumption, the vo...

Instant Insight

India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy: The Decarbonization of its Road Transport Sector

05 March 2023

India submitted its long-term low-emissions development strategy (LT-LEDS) to the 27th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 27) on November 14, 2022 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The strategy sets out a detailed roadmap of India’s ...

Discussion paper

The Circular Carbon Economy Index 2022 – Results

05 March 2023

The circular carbon economy (CCE) concept provides a holistic, flexible and pragmatic framework for countries to plan their energy and economic transitions to lower carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emission levels and, ultimately, net-zero emissions. The CCE Index measures countries...

Workshop brief

Implementing Circular Carbon Economies in the Gulf and Beyond

05 March 2023

The circular carbon economy (CCE) is an energy transition framework that is based on a holistic, technology-neutral and country context-sensitive approach to achieving net-zero emissions. It embraces all available technologies and tools, from renewable energy to carbon capture...

KAPSARC journal article

Overbuilding Transmission: A Case Study and Policy Analysis of the Indian Power Sector

02 March 2023

Commentary

Innovation by Gulf Cooperation Council Electricity Startups: A Global Comparison

28 February 2023

The electric power sector is the cornerstone for achieving the energy transition goals of economic progress, energy security and environmental improvements. Substantial and timely innovations are necessary to accomplish these goals. In this commentary, we investigate innovations in t...

Workshop brief

The Stability of World Oil Markets and the Potential for Oil Shocks

27 February 2023

How high (low) do inventories have to be before world oil market...
What is a reliable, unbiased, way to model uncertainty in world oil markets?
Is there a human factor in the stability of world oil markets? Has the role of policymakers changed significantly in the past decade?

KAPSARC journal article

Impacts of Income Poverty and High Housing Costs on Fuel Poverty in Egypt: An Empirical Modeling Approach

27 February 2023

KAPSARC journal article

Impacts of Water Scarcity on Agricultural Production and Electricity Generation in the Middle East and North Africa

27 February 2023

Instant Insight

Lessons From the European Electricity Crisis

20 February 2023

On January 23, 2023, the European Commission initiated a public consultation to reform the European Union’s electricity market (European Commission 2023) on the heels of extremely high wholesale electricity prices in Europe in the last months and days of 2022. Negative spot prices, h...

Instant Insight

Bans on the Sale of Gasoline- And Diesel-Powered Vehicles: Why Are Policymakers Favoring Commandand- Control to the Point of Banning, and Does It Send Unintended Policy Signals?

15 February 2023

In recent years, the adoption of command-and-control policies, from mandating sales of zero-tailpipe-emission vehicles all the way to prohibiting future sales of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles via tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions standards or otherwise, has gained momen...

Discussion paper

Spatial Modeling of Bargaining Among Stakeholders in Energy Policy: The Case of Japanese Nuclear Plants

15 February 2023

his paper evaluates the evolving political will in Japan to restart nuclear power plants to generate electric power, in light of the country’s political and economic developments over the past few years. We apply a model of collective decision-making processes (CDMPs), using the KAPS...

KAPSARC journal article

Balancing Climate Mitigation and Energy Security Goals Amid Converging Global Energy Crises: The Role of Green Investments

14 February 2023

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

08 February 2023

On the demand side, seasonality tends to play an important role as it keeps oil demand growth stagnating or in decline relative to its previous quarter. However, this quarter will also witness an added layer of downward pressure as several European Union (EU) countries, among others,...

Workshop brief

ESG: A Barrier or a Solution to the Oil and Gas Investment Emergency?

06 February 2023

To analyze the main factors...

To analyze the role of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) scores and strategies and possible solutions that could help the oil and gas industry attract more investment and, at the same time, cope with its sustainability responsibilities.

Discussion paper

Cost, Footprint, and Reliability Implications of Deploying Hydrogen in Off-grid Electric Vehicle Charging Stations: A GIS-assisted Study for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

29 January 2023

We quantify the cost, footprint and reliability implications of using hydrogen in off-grid electric vehicle charging stations (CS) using an optimization model coupled with a geographical information system (GIS) analysis for the city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. We also account for the c...

KAPSARC journal article

The Energy Transition and Export Diversification in Oil-dependent Countries: The role of Structural Factors

29 January 2023

Instant Insight

Capturing the Value From Supply-Side Shocks in the Heavy Crude Market

29 January 2023

The Russian-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russian crude oil flows have significantly affected world oil markets. Price volatility has increased, flows have been re-directed and there is considerable uncertainty concerning future energy policy. The implications of these changes a...

KAPSARC journal article

Oil Market Shocks and Financial Instability in Asian Countries

24 January 2023

Data Insight

The Crisis in Electricity Prices in Europe: Context and Key Insights

17 January 2023

The cost of electric power in Europe is soaring. After a steady rise in 2021, prices spiked in the first half of 2022 following the post-COVID-19 economic recovery. Day-ahead wholesale electricity prices increased more than threefold on average in 2021 compared to 2020, reachi...

Instant Insight

The G7 Pricing Scheme, an Exercise in Monopsony Power

17 January 2023

High in the Bavarian Alps, at a special security session, G7 leaders set out to devise an ambitious plan to sanction Russian energy sales. The intent was to reduce Russian profits from oil and gas sales, while minimizing the damage to developed economies caused by rising fuel prices ...

Discussion paper

Alternative Fuels for Saudi Cement Manufacturing with Time-varying Carbon Pricing

17 January 2023

After cement production in Saudi Arabia surged in the first half of the 2010s due to the country’s rapid economic development, it has slowed measurably in recent years as economic growth has declined. This is shown in Figure 1, along with the evolution of the Kingdom’s real gross do...

Instant Insight

Stagflation: Should the Oil Industry Worry?

09 January 2023

Oil is an essential commodity with an almost perfectly inelastic demand, despite its volatile price. In recent months, fuel prices have declined significantly from approximately $120 per barrel (b) at the beginning of June to less than $85/b at the end of September. Experts and mark...

KAPSARC journal article

Hard-linking a Top-down Economic Model with a Bottom-up Energy System for an Oil-exporting Country with Price Controls

07 January 2023

Book/book chapter

A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia: A Case Study on the World’s Largest Oil Exporter

01 January 2023

Open ... Introduces the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia Combines cutting-edge econometric methods, a well-established theoretical foundation, and empirical coherence Customizable for different research and policy questions Click here to read the book

KAPSARC journal article

Peak Demand-based Optimization Approach for Building Retrofits: Case Study of Saudi Residential Buildings

11 December 2022

Commentary

Fostering Net-Zero Transition Pathways: The Role of Clean Hydrogen

08 December 2022

In early 2022, 80 countries (including Saudi Arabia), representing around 74% of global greenhouse gas emissions, pledged to reach net-zero emissions (NZE) in the coming decades. Achieving these ambitious climate policy objectives requires shifting the energy mix toward existing and ...

Climate & Sustainability

Report

COP 27 and Different Narratives for a Net-Zero World

08 December 2022

Post-COP 27, Gulf countries have the opportunity to demonstrate a net-zero world is possible through leading by example and bringing together two competing visions of how to get there.

Read Full Report Here

Data Insight

Status of Global Concentrated Solar Power Installations

07 December 2022

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is a type of renewable energy that uses mirrors to concentrate solar irradiation onto a receiver and convert it into heat. The heat can then be used directly or indirectly for thermal or electrical applications. CSP technologies store energy, which mak...

Commentary

Insights from India’s Journey to Over 100 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy

07 December 2022

This commentary analyzes the key industry developments, policy and regulatory features, prevailing circumstances and challenges related to renewable energy (RE) in India. It also highlights learnings for other countries. As electricity is a concurrent subject as per the Indian ...

Data Insight

Saudis in the Private Sector: Women Leading the Way

07 December 2022

In Q3 2018, 30% of S...

At the beginning of the series in Q3 2018, over 75% of employed Saudi women worked in the public sector. However, in the same period Saudi female labor force participation increased from under 20% to 34% – fulfilling a major policy objective of Saudi Vision 2030.

Instant Insight

Gaming Out the Proposed Price Cap on Russian Oil

24 November 2022

In a June 29, 2022, communique, the G7 countries agreed to explore ways to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports. The main mechanism would be a ban on the provision of insurance, logistics and financial services by G7 nations for cargoes sold above the price ceiling. Wh...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

20 November 2022

Declining gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q4 2022 will add downward pressure to the underlying seasonality of oil demand trends in several countries, playing an important role in oil demand declines this quarter. OECD countries in North America and Europe are expected to witne...

KAPSARC journal article

Oil Market Stabilization: The Performance of OPEC and Its Allies

15 November 2022

Discussion paper

The Circular Carbon Economy Index 2022 – Results

10 November 2022

The circular carbon economy (CCE) concept provides a holistic, flexible and pragmatic framework for countries to plan their energy and economic transitions to lower carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emission levels and, ultimately, net-zero emissions. The CCE Index measures countries...

KAPSARC journal article

Key Issues for Policy-makers to Address at COP 27

30 October 2022

KAPSARC journal article

16 October 2022

Aviation is crucial for connecting people and countries worldwide. Although aviation carriers, manufacturers, and governments have all aimed to increase energy efficiency through significant technological advances over recent decades, this transport mode has struggled to find altern...

Workshop brief

How Can Governments, Oil and Gas Enterprises, and Research Institutions Collaborate to End Routine Gas Flaring?

16 October 2022

Natural gas is a feedstock for the petrochemical industry and a fuel of choice in the power sector to help transition toward clean, sustainable, and affordable energy. As vital as gas is for electricity generation, the petrochemical industry, and the transportation sector, many oil o...

KAPSARC journal article

Fuel Consumption Elasticities, Rebound Effect and Feebate Effectiveness in the Indian and Chinese New Car Markets

16 October 2022

Instant Insight

How Long Will the Semiconductor Crisis Affect the Traditional Automotive Sector? Implications for car fuel demand

13 October 2022

The 2020 semiconductor crisis has hit the automotive sector, as well as many other sectors. As a consequence of the COVID-19-induced shock, a worldwide semiconductor supply-demand imbalance arose between 2020 and 2022. Demand grew by around 17% annually while manufacturing capacity ...

Data Insight

Reliability Implications of Unexpected Tripping of Inverter-Based Resources

10 October 2022

A recent KAPSARC Instant Insight examined the reliability crisis in electric power grids, and proposed policy measures that can mitigate these risks (Felder 2022). The specific causes for these severe outages and blackouts differ, but the causes of greatest concern are those that re...

Data Insight

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation in 2021

10 October 2022

In 2021, global solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity increased by a record 175 gigawatts (GW). This brought the total global cumulative installed PV capacity to around 942 GW at the end of 2021.

Instant Insight

The Effects of Russian Sanctions on the Global Economy

10 October 2022

On February 24, 2022, Russia began a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, which quickly escalated into a militarized conflict across multiple fronts. The act drew immediate disapproval from the United Nations and led most members of the Western alliance to impose sanctions on Rus...

Book/book chapter

Scaling up ESG finance in the Gulf: A Perspective from Saudi Arabia

05 October 2022

Financing the sustainable energy transition continues to be a global challenge given the massive investment needs associated. According to projections provided by different institutions (e.g., OECD, World Bank, and UN Environment, 2018), sev...

Read Full Book Chapter Here

KAPSARC journal article

Climate Diplomacy and the Road to Net Zero: Saudi Arabia’s Climate Governance, Ambitions, Actions, and Expectations for COP 27

04 October 2022

KAPSARC journal article

25 September 2022

Discussion paper

Resilience of Saudi Arabia’s Economy to Oil Shocks: Effects of Economic Reforms

23 September 2022

We assess the extent to which the implementation of Saudi Vision 2030 policies enhances the Saudi economy’s resilience to oil price and production shocks, and to the productivity of tradable and non-tradable goods. We extend Blazquez et al.’s (2021) dynamic stochastic g...

Workshop brief

Digital Transformation in the Context of the Energy Transition

18 September 2022

For decades, the oil and gas industry has delivered the world with the best value proposition in the forms of reliable, affordable, safe energy supplies. As global population projections soar, demand for all forms of energy is also set to rise, with hydrocarbons expected to play a do...

Methodology paper

Global Crude Oil Storage Index: A New Benchmark for Energy Policy

13 September 2022

The global oil market dwarfs other commodity markets. Its size and role in the energy and industrial value chains underscore its significant economic and geopolitical impacts. Thus, the consequences of oil price fluctuations extend far beyond the oil industry and can be viewed as a ...

KAPSARC journal article

Cost, Footprint, and Reliability Implications of Deploying Hydrogen in Off-grid Electric Vehicle Charging Stations: A GIS-assisted Study for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

11 September 2022

KAPSARC journal article

Cost, Emission, and Macroeconomic Implications of Diesel Displacement in the Saudi Agricultural Sector: Options and Policy Insights

11 September 2022

Commentary

Digital Transformation in the Oil and Gas Industry: Hype or Hope?

11 September 2022

For decades, the oil and gas (O&G) industry has provided the globe with the best value proposition in the form of reliable, affordable, and safe energy supplies. As global population projections soar, demand for all forms of energy is also set to rise, with hydroc...

KAPSARC journal article

The impact of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

09 September 2022

KAPSARC journal article

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Road Freight Transportation – A Colombian Case Study

07 September 2022

KAPSARC journal article

01 September 2022

Discussion paper

Cost, Emission, and Macroeconomic Implications of Diesel Displacement in the Saudi Agricultural Sector: Options and Policy Insights

24 August 2022

The Saudi agricultural sector relies on diesel for irrigation, which is provided to farmers at a much lower price than the average global price, implying significant opportunity costs. With the aid of soft-coupled power and macro-econometric models, we assess the cost and macroeconom...

Discussion paper

Keeping the Nuclear Energy Option Open

23 August 2022

Nuclear energy is already playing a crucial role in reducing emissions from electricity generation. However, if this role is not expanded, achieving the international goal of avoiding unacceptable global climate change will be extremely difficult. The evidence presented in this study...

Commentary

Investment Challenges Affecting the Oil and Gas Industry

22 August 2022

The unprecedented crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the investment in the oil and gas sector, which was already suffering from low investment levels, among other reasons due to the climate change misconceptions. This report analyzes the main challenges negatively...

KAPSARC journal article

Contextualizing Uncontrolled Oil Trade Flows: A Novel Categorization

02 August 2022

KAPSARC journal article

How Cost-effective are Electric Vehicle Subsidies in Reducing Tailpipe-CO2 Emissions? An Analysis of Major Electric Vehicle Markets

24 July 2022

Book/book chapter

PPPs in Colombia: Policy Lessons

22 July 2022

Latin American countries have introduced private participation in the transport sector to decrease the economic resources spent in projects’ time line. This private participation has also increased the development of corridors in which governments have... Read Book Chapter

Discussion paper

One Year After the Texas Blackout: Lessons for Reliable and Resilient Power Systems

14 June 2022

In February 2021, Texas experienced an extreme cold snap causing a dramatic electricity blackout that left millions of households without electricity, resulting in over 200 fatalities and economic damages of approximately $100 billion. The Texas blackout has been used to support a va...

Instant Insight

Investing in Net-Zero Emission Ambitions: Global ESG Frameworks and CCUS Projects

14 June 2022

Achieving global net zero emission (NZE) goals necessitates trillions of US$ of annual investment in various mitigation technologies. While a significant portion of this investment is expected to take place in mainstream mitigation technologies (e.g., renewable energy), low carbon te...

Discussion paper

The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Circular Carbon Economy: Progress and Potential

14 June 2022

Over the past year, all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have updated their medium-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets by submitting revised nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE),...

KAPSARC journal article

Nationalization of the Private Sector Labor Force, Quotas, Matching and Public Jobs, an Illustration with Saudi Arabia

12 June 2022

Instant Insight

Policy Responses to the Reliability Crisis in the Power Grid

06 June 2022

From China, Europe, Central Asia, India and to the United States, there is a reliability crisis in electric power grids. Why are power grids so brittle and what should policymakers do?

Instant Insight

A Remaining Piece of the COVID-19 Puzzle: Saudi Arabia’s Remittances Account

30 May 2022

25 May 2022

The dramatic drop in air traffic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the related travel restrictions has significantly impacted the aviation industry in Saudi Arabia and around the world. The sector has suffered considerable losses due to the reduction in passenger traffic.

Discussion paper

Determinants of Remittance Outflows: The Case of Saudi Arabia

22 May 2022

International labor migration has played a key role in the development of both advanced and developing countries. Many developing countries in Asia have relied on labor migration, mainly to the oil-rich Gulf region, to reduce both unemployment and poverty (Naseem 2007). Mansoor and Q...

KAPSARC journal article

Saudi Arabia’s Climate Change Policy and the Circular Carbon Economy Approach

22 May 2022

KAPSARC journal article

08 May 2022

In our previous Instant Insight, The Global Methane Pledge: What It Means for the Oil and Gas Industry Post-COP26, we shed light on the increased momentum behind the issue of methane emissions and how it is taking center stage in major climate change forums. As of the time of writing...

Commentary

The European Energy Collapse: A Chain of Contingencies or a Recurring Nightmare?

20 April 2022

Choosing to rely exclusively on renewable energy sources (RES) and eliminating hydrocarbons can lead to significant difficulties for an energy system. Challenges may arise when energy storage is insufficient to guarantee a stable power supply. The lack of suitable technologies...

Discussion paper

Impact of Stay-home Orders on the Electricity Demand of Residential Buildings: Case Study of Saudi Arabia

14 April 2022

The analysis presented in this paper evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 stay-home order (or lockdown) on electricity consumption among Saudi residential building stock. Our analysis is based on an assessment of monitored data obtained for a sample of housing units as well as the re...

Discussion paper

Cross-seasonal Fuel Savings from Load Shifting in the Saudi Industrial Sector

11 April 2022

Load shifting, that is, moving demand from peak to off-peak hours, is an important type of demand response. It can reduce the overall operating costs of a power system and improve the reliability of the power grid. This study estimates the financial implications of load...

Commentary

Balancing China’s Energy Security and Its Transition to Carbon Neutrality

10 April 2022

At the United Nations (UN) General Assembly’s seventy-fifth session held on September 20, 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged that China would reach peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This is seen as a significant step in the global effort...

KAPSARC journal article

Revisiting Energy Subsidy Calculations: A Focus on Saudi Arabia

07 April 2022

Discussion paper

Role of Energy Efficiency in Designing Carbon-neutral Residential Communities: Case Study of Saudi Arabia

03 April 2022

This study focuses on the impact of improving the energy efficiency of housing units on the design of carbon-neutral grid-connected residential communities in Saudi Arabia. Particularly, it examines the efficacy of both photovoltaic systems and wind turbines as on-site renewable powe...

Workshop brief

Plastics in the Circular Carbon Economy

28 March 2022

Plastics are a critical category in the chemicals value chain and have helped shape the modern economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of plastics in people’s lives. Throughout the international community, the demand for plastic has surged during the pandemic o...

KAPSARC journal article

Inventories and the Term Structure of Oil Prices: A Complex Relationship

27 March 2022

Commentary

Understanding the Willingness to Make the Modal Shift to the New Metro in Riyadh

27 March 2022

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital and main financial hub, is currently facing substantial urban growth pressures. The city suffers from serious traffic congestion, especially at peak hours. Owing to the city’s high level of urbanization, travel demands are expected to increase. This dem...

KAPSARC journal article

Documenting Energy Flows between States: The Global Energy Relations Dataset (GERD), 1978–2014

23 March 2022

Discussion paper

Achieving Renewable Energy Targets Without Compromising the Power Sector’s Reliability

22 March 2022

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy has set ambitious renewable energy goals. Although the Kingdom’s current energy mix is dominated by conventional energy (>95%), it aims to draw 50% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030. Currently, the Kingdom enjoys very high solar photovo...

Commentary

Potential implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

22 March 2022

From 2023 onward, the European Union’s (EU’s) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will require importers to declare the embedded carbon emissions of electricity, iron, steel, aluminum, cement and fertilizers. The CBAM will ultimately transition into a carbon import tax, with th...

KAPSARC journal article

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

22 March 2022

KAPSARC journal article

28 February 2022

Integrated oil and gas (O&G) companies operate vertically integrated businesses that span the O&G value chain. In this way, they can leverage expertise across multiple domains rather than just focusing on exploration and production (E&P). Examples of such companies includ...

Report

Country Horizon: Russia

28 February 2022

This report provides an up-to-date overview of Russian domestic and foreign policy issues related to the oil and natural gas markets. We also discuss the potential role of hydrogen in Russia’s short-term energy strategy. We present a succinct overview of the domestic de...

Instant Insight

COP 26 Outcomes and Opportunities for Saudi Arabia and Other Arab Countries

13 February 2022

The 2021 Glasgow Climate Change Conference, also known as COP 26, took place at a difficult juncture. Countries are still struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences. The concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere continue to rise, and extreme...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

13 February 2022

The drivers of this quarter’s global demand outlook stem from multiple factors (i.e., a slower roll-out of vaccinations in developing countries, multiple continued lockdowns in several countries due to fears of the COVID-19 omicron variant, a slowdown in long-haul travel, rising infl...

Commentary

The Role of Building Energy Efficiency in Shaping the Energy Transition in Saudi Arabia: Key challenges and initiatives

08 February 2022

This commentary discusses a crucial topic that has emerged in the policy and economic literature in recent years: the potential role of energy efficiency in the current energy transition. It provides a straightforward analysis of the prominent role that residential energy efficiency ...

KAPSARC journal article

Sectoral Investment Analysis for Saudi Arabia

07 February 2022

KAPSARC journal article

13 January 2022

The objective of this study is to investigate Saudi Arabia’s industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. We apply structural time series modeling to annual data over the period of 1990 to 2019. In addition to estimating the size and significance of the price and income ...

Workshop brief

Energy Open Data, Energy Policy Scenario Models and Tools

06 January 2022

The workshop brought together over 40 experts from research, academia, government and industry to exchange ideas and experiences around the theme of open data for the energy sector. Participants discussed obstacles for Saudi Arabia, including the limited availability of open source d...

KAPSARC journal article

Energy Transition in Saudi Arabia: Key Initiatives and Challenges

01 January 2022

Instant Insight

India’s Ambition to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions by 2070: Uncertainty and Opportunity

29 December 2021

The special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels highlighted the importance of achieving net-zero emissions or a carbon-neutral future. There has subsequently been growi...

Discussion paper

The Circular Carbon Economy Index 2021 – Results

29 December 2021

There is an urgent need to align global carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions with climate-safe trajectories. A broad range of technologies and approaches are needed to achieve this cost-effectively and equitably. The circular carbon economy (CCE) concept provides a holis...

Discussion paper

Renewables, Reliability and Efficiency in Electricity Markets

29 December 2021

The choice to use electricity markets to transition to an ultra-high renewable electricity sector depends on whether a high level of reliability and efficiency can be achieved. This study presents a reliability, resiliency and adaptability policy framework for a liberalized po...

Instant Insight

What Drove Saudi Arabia’s 2020 Fall in CO2 Emissions?

29 December 2021

In June 2021, the energy data provider Enerdata released its initial estimates f...₂) emissions. The data indicate that the Kingdom’s CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion decreased by 3.3%, from 508.3 million tonnes of CO₂ (MtCO₂) in 2019 to 491.8 megatonnes of CO₂ (MtCO₂) in 2020.

Commentary

Saving Costs and Emissions by Reforming Electricity Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Counterfactual Assessment

23 December 2021

Electricity price reforms are generally regarded as a mechanism to reduce distortions in energy markets, improve energy efficiency, and increase government revenue. However, an additional co-benefit of such policy measures is lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Discussion paper

Cost-Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies for Reducing Peak Demand

22 December 2021

This paper describes an optimization-based approach to evaluate measures providing peak electricity demand reduction cost benefits for Saudi residential buildings. These measures can be categorized as energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) measures. Specifically, this paper...

Instant Insight

The Implications of Soaring Gas and Coal Prices on Europe’s Energy Poverty Trap

15 December 2021

With the recovery of the world economy following the easing of restrictions designed to contain COVID-19, energy demand has surged even as natural gas stocks were dangerously low. This triggered one of the first significant energy shocks of the green era and exposed the fragilities o...

Conference paper

How Do Bankruptcies in the Shale Sector Induce Operators to Focus on Value Creation?

09 December 2021

Between January 2015 and early 2021, about 76 of the approximately 2,160 small-to-medium independent companies in the tight oil sector filed for Chapter 11 protection. These filings mostly occurred in 2016 and 2019. These companies were negatively impacted by th... Read more here

Climate & Sustainability

Report

From the Year of Climate Ambition to Action in the Gulf

08 December 2021

For Gulf countries, 2021 was the year of ambition and new climate targets, and 2022 will be the year of implementation.

Read Full Report Here

Data Insight

Aviation Fuel Consumed and Passengers Carried in Saudi Arabia

07 December 2021

The air transport sector in Saudi Arabia has an important impact on the economy (e.g., job creation, gross domestic product, and gross value added). Over 690 routes are registered in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for both domestic and international travel. There are currently 141 domes...

KAPSARC journal article

Residential Energy Model for Evaluating Energy Demand and Energy Efficiency Programs in Saudi Residential Buildings

07 December 2021

KAPSARC journal article

Theoretical framework for industrial energy consumption revisited: The role of demographics

30 November 2021

Data Insight

Why are European Wholesale Electricity Prices Soaring?

23 November 2021

Since the beginning of summer 2021, European wholesale electricity prices have been soaring to historic highs. The average day-ahead price of electricity for central European countries more than doubled between June and September, reaching 170 euros per megawatthour (e/MWh) on...

Discussion paper

Oil Market Shocks and Financial Instability in Asian Countries

23 November 2021

There is no commodity whose interlinkages with the macroeconomy have been studied as extensively as oil, starting with Hamilton’s (1983) seminal study. Thousands of subsequent studies have examined the relationship between oil prices and various economic variables, including the stoc...

Data Insight

Oman’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

23 November 2021

In July 2021, Oman submitted its second nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement on climate change (NDC). In the NDC, Oman pledges to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by ...

KAPSARC journal article

The Sensitivity of Oil Price Shocks to Preexisting Market Conditions: A GVAR Analysis

11 November 2021

This study develops a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model to simulate various types of shocks to oil markets and to see whether such shocks are time-sensitive in oil markets. Our model extends the canonical Mohaddes and Pesaran (2016) model temporally (to 2018Q3), spatial...

KAPSARC journal article

The Impact of Total Factor Productivity on Energy Consumption: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Validation

10 November 2021

Instant Insight

Will COP26 Recognize a Role for Nuclear Energy in the Clean Energy Mix?

04 November 2021

Next month, the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), hosted by the United Kingdom, will discuss the big challenge facing the world’s governments, which is how to limit the average rise in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels to below 1.5–2 degrees Celsius...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

04 November 2021

The drivers of this quarter’s global demand outlook stem from multiple factors (i.e., a slower roll-out of vaccinations in developing countries, multiple continued lockdowns in several countries, rising inflation, including shipping costs, lagging delivery times, the usual sea...

Commentary

How the Circular Carbon Economy Index Can Serve Policymaking: Case Study of Saudi Arabia

02 November 2021

The Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) Index is a tool developed by KAPSARC for energy and climate policymakers and stakeholders to quantify and compare country performance and potential on the CCE. The CCE is a relatively new concept. It aims to draw attention to the need to address carb...

Methodology paper

The Circular Carbon Economy Index 2021 – Methodology

02 November 2021

The Circular Carbon Economy Index (CCE Index) aims to measure countries’ progress in and potential for achieving circular carbon economies (CCEs). The CCE Index is based on two sub-indices: one for measuring countries’ current performance in the various dimensions of the CCE and the ...

KAPSARC journal article

Volatility, Contango, and Crude Oil Inventories: A Complex Relationship

01 November 2021

KAPSARC journal article

The Role of Residential Energy Efficiency in Shaping the Energy Transition in Saudi Arabia: Key Challenges and Initiatives

01 November 2021

KAPSARC journal article

13 October 2021

Long-term electricity demand projections are fundamental for power generation expansion planning and for broader energy policy formulation. Studies show that electricity demand in Saudi Arabia and the GCC region has been growing rapidly over the past decades. This growth has s...

KAPSARC journal article

An Economic Analysis of Gas Pipeline Trade Cooperation in the GCC

11 October 2021

Commentary

Building Back Better in Saudi Arabia With Energy Efficiency

05 October 2021

The first priority for governments in managing the COVID-19 crisis is the health of their citizens. However, the implementation of restrictions on activity necessary for limiting the spread of the disease has caused the greatest global recession since the Great Depression. Many gover...

Discussion paper

Barriers to and Opportunities for Light-Duty Vehicle Electrification in India: Insights From a Survey of Experts

05 October 2021

According to the World Health Organization, India has the world’s worst air quality. Among other factors, vehicular pollution from the increasing stock of passenger vehicles has contributed to India’s deteriorating air quality. This increasing stock is also a factor in India bec...

Commentary

Implications of the 2021 Iran-China Deal for the Oil Market

05 October 2021

In late March 2021, China and Iran signed a cooperation pact to stimulate investments in Iran’s oil, gas and petrochemical infrastructure. We refer to this pact as the ‘Iran-China deal’ throughout this manuscript. This deal attracted substantial attention for its effects on global oi...

Workshop brief

Countries’ Progress and Enablers for Circular Carbon Economies

05 October 2021

The circular carbon economy (CCE) is a new concept, developed in detail by Saudi scholars and stakeholders since 2019 and promoted via Saudi Arabia’s Group of Twenty (G20) presidency in 2020. The CCE is conceptualized as an economy in which atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions...

Data Insight

Flight and Passenger Flows in Saudi Arabia

28 September 2021

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has four major international airports. They are King Khalid International Airport (RUH), King Abdulaziz International Airport (JED), King Fahd International Airport (DMM) and Prince Muhammed Bin Abdulaziz International Airport (MED). Before th...

Discussion paper

How Can Energy Storage Catalyze the Electricity Policies of Gulf Cooperation Council Members? Issues and Options

27 September 2021

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are working in parallel to reform their electricity markets and achieve ambitious renewable energy deployment goals. The motivation for this agenda is multifaceted, and increasing economic efficiency is one of several reas...

KAPSARC journal article

A Saudi Perspective on COP26 and Current Initiatives

26 September 2021

The 26th Conference of the 197 Parties (COP) who make up the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will take place in Glasgow, Scotland, from 1 to 12 November 2021. Negotiations will be conducted in the shadow of the dire conclusions reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Clim...

Book/book chapter

What to Expect from COP 26 on Energy and Emission Targets

15 September 2021

This short article, written upon invitation for the Oxford Energy Forum, unpacks how the UNFCCC deals with energy and net-zero targets – and how it doesn’t – and what this means for COP 26.

Read full article here

Workshop brief

Resilient Cities in the Gulf Cooperation Council

14 September 2021

KAPSARC hosted a webinar, “Resilient Cities in the Gulf Cooperation Council,” on July 20, 2020, to discuss the relationships between governmental leads and non-governmental capabilities to support risk mitigation policy formulation. The webinar drew global participants from diverse s...

Discussion paper

Projecting Saudi Sectoral Electricity Demand in 2030 Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model

09 September 2021

Projecting future demand for electricity is central to power sector planning, as these projections inform capacity investment requirements and related infrastructure expansions. Electricity is not currently economically storable in large volumes. Thus, the underlying drivers of elect...

KAPSARC journal article

Keeping the Nuclear Energy Option Open

01 September 2021

KAPSARC journal article

Sectoral Employment Analysis for Saudi Arabia

26 August 2021

Commentary

Climate and Power System Reliability in the Aftermath of the Texas Blackouts

25 August 2021

The February 2021 blackout in Texas underscored the importance of reliable and resilient power systems. In this commentary, we discuss the roles of regulators, markets, fuel and generation supply chains, and interdependent infrastructures, and finds that they need to be reconsidered ...

Discussion paper

Sectoral Investment Analysis for Saudi Arabia

24 August 2021

This study aims to investigate the determinants of short- and long-run investment behavior in Saudi Arabia for eight non-oil sectors. Saudi Arabia is currently proceeding with its historic Vision 2030 reform plan, which aims to significantly increase the private sector’s contribution...

Discussion paper

Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis

24 August 2021

The diversification of the non-oil sector, including its exports, is at the core of Saudi Vision 2030. This study investigates Saudi non-oil exports in a novel way. Specifically, it differs from previous studies on this topic owing to its modeling framework. This study’s modeling fra...

Discussion paper

Are Consumers Myopic About Future Fuel Costs? Insights from the Indian two-wheeler market

24 August 2021

India has the world’s third highest carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, after China and the United States. The transportation sector is the third largest contributor to carbon dioxide emissions in India, accounting for roughly 11% of all carbon dioxide emissions ...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

22 August 2021

The drivers of this quarter’s significant demand growth will be the reopening of COVID-related shutdowns/behaviors, continued economic recovery and seasonal consumption patterns. We anticipate that the most significant quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth will come from the U.S., fo...

KAPSARC journal article

Sectoral Employment Analysis for Saudi Arabia

11 August 2021

This study aims to explore the impact of output and wage on labour demand in Saudi Arabia at sectoral level. We applied cointegration and equilibrium correction methods to the time-series data of 10 sectors over 1995–2016 using the demand side framework and considering ...

KAPSARC journal article

Role of Energy Efficiency and Distributed Renewable Energy in Designing Carbon Neutral Residential Buildings and Communities: Case Study of Saudi Arabia

02 August 2021

as on-site renewable power technologies to achieve the carbon neutrality status for residential communities. Various energy efficiency levels for the housing units that make the residential communities are considered in the analysis. For this study, the design of carbon neutral comm...

KAPSARC journal article

The Pacifying Effect of Energy Dependence on Interstate Conflict: A Large-N analysis

01 August 2021

Energy remains essential to all forms of economic and military activity and constitutes one of the most valuable and strategic commodities in international trade. Using the newly released Global Energy Relations Dataset, we assess whether trade in energy resources systematically affe...

Data Insight

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation in 2020

26 July 2021

Dozens of governments worldwide have supported, and still support, renewable energy technology deployment, including solar photovoltaics (PV). This has been driven by their ambitions to be energy independent, meet carbon emissions reduction targets, and contribute to their dom...

Commentary

Measuring to Manage: The Case for Improving CO2 Monitoring and Reporting in Saudi Arabia

13 July 2021

) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) monitoring and reporting in the Kingdom. Such systems provide the essential evidence base for domestic climate policymaking. Developing them will also be crucial in helping Saudi Arabia achieve its reporting commitments under ...₂ mitigation efforts.

Instant Insight

Beyond Smart Meters

11 July 2021

Over the last two decades, many countries have installed millions of smart meters to improve the efficiency, reliability, and quality of service in the electric power sector. Compared with traditional meters, smart meters measure consumers’ electricity usage at 5- or 15-minute interv...

Commentary

Saudi Arabia’s Clean Hydrogen Ambitions: Opportunities and Challenges

30 June 2021

Fully leveraging clean hydrogen to sustainably power the global economy would give the Kingdom a competitive edge in an increasingly carbon-constrained world in which net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are both a requirement and a condition for surviva...

Instant Insight

Once Consumers Adopt an Electric Vehicle, Do They Go Back?

29 June 2021

The lack of repeat adoption of low carbon technologies has implications for climate change mitigation. In this insight, we explore how many electric vehicle owners dispose of their electric vehicles and do not buy another when purchasing their next car. We also investigate their reas...

Methodology paper

The Circular Carbon Economy Index – Methodological Approach and Conceptual Framework

28 June 2021

The circular carbon economy (CCE) approach, developed during Saudi Arabia’s G20 Presidency and endorsed by G20 leaders and energy ministers, can be used as a framework for holistic assessments of all available energy and emission management technologies within the confi...

Discussion paper

Evaluating Access to Riyadh’s Planned Public Transport System Using Geospatial Analysis

24 June 2021

The King Abdulaziz Project for Public Transport in Riyadh city is one of the world’s largest urban transit systems being developed. The project aims to meet the demands of the city’s growing urban population while reducing traffic congestion, heavy private car dependence and air poll...

Instant Insight

Revisiting the Impact of COVID-19 on the Demand for Transport and Gasoline

24 June 2021

The global outbreak of COVID-19 began in March 2020. As of April 2021, the global caseload has reached over 150 million. Governments globally have introduced various measures in an attempt to contain the virus’s spread. These measures have varied in type and stringency in different p...

KAPSARC journal article

Assessing Effects of Renewable Deployment on Emissions in the Saudi Power Sector Until 2040 Using Integer Optimization

21 June 2021

KAPSARC journal article

02 June 2021

22 April 2021

Many pieces of evidence showing that investments in energy transition can boost GDP and create jobs. Further, national and regional energy transitions can help build resilient economies and societies. Therefore, linking short-term actions to medium-... Read Full Book Chapter Here

Commentary

Responsiveness of Saudi New Vehicle Fleet Fuel Economy to Fuel and Vehicle Price Policy Levers

21 April 2021

). However, the extent to which these policies have been effective in improving the Saudi new vehicle fleet fuel econo...Energy Economics journal that explored the impact of fuel- and vehicle price-related policies on Saudi Arabia’s new vehicle fleet fuel economy (Sheldon and Dua 2020).

Discussion paper

Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

14 April 2021

The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the income ...

Commentary

What Policy Levers Could Address Indiaʼs Automobile-Related Externalities?

12 April 2021

The Indian government has shown a growing recognition of the need for policy instruments aimed at addressing increasing air pollution, oil imports, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with India’s light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector. Based on the findings of a survey of ...

KAPSARC journal article

Estimating Different Order Polynomial Logarithmic Environmental Kuznets Curves

11 April 2021

be followed since it potentially could lead to misleading conclusions. Instead, it should be based upon the sign and statistical significance of the estimated coefficients of the leading terms, the location of turning point(s), and the sign and statistical significance of the estima...

Data Insight

Impact of COVID-19 on Passenger Railway Demand in Saudi Arabia

06 April 2021

The Saudi Railways Organization (SRO) operates a network of approximately 1,400 kilometers (km). This network links the Eastern Province with Riyadh, where more than 40% of the country’s population and economic activities are located. A passenger line connects Riyadh with Dammam thro...

Instant Insight

The RCEP and its Potential Impact on Saudi Regional Exports

30 March 2021

On November 15, 2020, 10 Southeast Asian economies, joined by Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, formed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – the world’s largest trading bloc, representing about a third of the global economy (BBC 2020). This comp...

Commentary

Overview of Saudi Electricity Demand (1970–2018)

29 March 2021

Saudi Arabia’s demand for electricity is undergoing unprecedented changes. In recent years, the government has implemented several efficiency measures and pricing reforms to curb demand growth. These measures started delivering concrete results in 2016. After decades of rapid ...

Discussion paper

Economic Analysis of Gas Pipeline Trade Cooperation: A GCC case study

23 March 2021

Natural gas development across the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain —has become a priority for achieving long-term energy security and for supporting economic diversification ...

Workshop brief

Advancing Market Integration and Decarbonization: How to Ensure a Smooth Transition?

22 March 2021

The concept of connecting electricity markets, which started with the sole objective of maximizing economic gains, is now being increasingly expanded to fulfill other policy objectives, primarily to support the low-carbon future energy system. The importance of clearly articulating p...

Data Insight

Private Participation in the Renewable Energy Transition

22 March 2021

The electricity sector captures a significant portion of PPI flows in developing countries. Over half (51%) of total PPI flows in developing countries since 1995 (~ US$1.9 trillion) went into the electricity sector. This figure covers the privatization of existing electricity infras...

Discussion paper

Are Electric Vehicle Subsidies Becoming More Impactful Over Time?

22 March 2021

Various subsidies for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have been implemented worldwide at the federal, state and regional levels. These subsidies aim to promote PEV adoption to help reduce both local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (Hardman 2019). In the United Stat...

Discussion paper

Long-run Effects of Real-time Electricity Pricing in the Saudi Power Sector

22 March 2021

This study explores the potential effects of real-time electricity pricing on the operations of Saudi Arabia’s power generation sector. The Kingdom currently sets fuel prices for power utilities at levels that suppress the costs of power generation. However, this analysis prov...

Conference paper

The Road to Zero Routine Gas Flaring: A Case Study from Saudi Arabia

16 March 2021

Gas is envisaged as the fuel of choice in the power sector and is ideal for helping to transition toward clean, sustainable, and affordable energy access. As vital as gas is for electricity generation, the petrochemical industry, the transportation sector, and h... Read more here

KAPSARC journal article

Review Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Electricity Demand for Residential Buildings

15 March 2021

22 February 2021

07 February 2021

Based on the current use of mode, people show different preferences for modal shift. This Data Insight presents the most important metro options (based on fare, travel time, walking time and waiting time of the metro) as stated by the respondents.

Commentary

Understanding Latent Consumer Demand For Fuel-Efficient Vehicles

03 February 2021

Consumer adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) – including hybrids, plug-in hybrids and pure battery electric – is a crucial step in improving energy use and reducing emissions in the transportation sector. To promote adoption, policymakers have employed various demand- and supply-side...

Data Insight

The Evolution of Gasoline Demand and Prices in Saudi Arabia

03 February 2021

Gasoline is the primary fuel for the passenger car fleet in Saudi Arabia. The demand for passenger cars, and hence gasoline, is primarily driven by the size, geography and economic growth of the country, its domestic fuel prices, and the tendency for consumers to use private transpor...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

02 February 2021

Total global oil demand is expected to increase year-on-year (YoY) by 4.2 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2021 and further grow by 3.5 MMb/d in 2022, returning to 2019 levels by the third quarter (Q3) 2022. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts economic growth of around 5...

Commentary

What Happened to Oil Product Demand in Saudi Arabia During the First Two Quarters of 2020?

31 January 2021

In this commentary, we examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the various lockdown measures on domestic oil product demand in Saudi Arabia during the first and second quarters of 2020. We e...

liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
gasoline
kerosene
diesel
fuel oil
other oil products

Workshop brief

Utility-Scale Storage: Sleeping Giant or Mirage?

18 January 2021

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, among other countries, has ambitious plans to install a significant amount of renewable capacity by 2040. A high share of renewable generation in the power system can, however, result in grid instabilities. Energy storage technology is one option that cou...

Commentary

Refining Value Chain Optimization Trends in the United States: The Shale Factor

18 January 2021

Shale oil or light tight oil (LTO) is a sweet, less viscous crude oil, with an average API gravity range of 35º API to 55º API, and a sulfur content as low as <0.2%. After the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the vast reserves of LTO in the geological formations such...

KAPSARC journal article

On the Incremental Investment in Residential Energy Efficiency: A Saudi Perspective

18 January 2021

This paper examines the marginal welfare gain of adopting higher energy efficiency after another efficiency measure has already been installed. For example, how does installing stringent thermal insulation influence energy efficiency investment decisions thereafter? A mathematical mo...

Data Insight

Share of Road Transport and the Consumption of Diesel and Petrol in India

06 January 2021

As of 2015, India had approximat...
In 2013, India had 132.55 million registered two-wheelers and 25 million registered cars. According to India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, the transport sector accounts for 70% of all retail diesel sales and 95% of all retail petrol sales.

Discussion paper

Economic Structural Change and Freight Transport Demand in China

06 January 2021

After decades of rapid economic development, China is quickly becoming the world’s second-largest transport energy consumer. Recently, it has also surpassed the United States (U.S.) as the world’s largest oil importer, and it is expected to become the largest oil consum...

Discussion paper

Can Oil Refiners Adjust to a Greater Supply of Shale Oil?

06 January 2021

The advent of American shale oil and its prospects for continued production growth have raised concerns about whether oil refineries can handle the increasingly lighter crude oil supply. To provide a perspective on this issue, we run a global oil refining model for the years from 201...

Instant Insight

The Saudi Move into Hydrogen: A Paradigm Shift

06 January 2021

Saudi Arabia is moving ahead with its diversification plan, Saudi Vision 2030, by adopting hydrogen. The Kingdom is keen to enable the circular carbon economy (CCE) by producing and utilizing clean hydrogen. On September 27, Saudi Aramco announced its first shipment of hydrogen from ...

Book/book chapter

In Eco-Design of Buildings and Infrastructure

01 January 2021

This chapter looks at different models and approaches concerning the energy consumption of households and buildings. The modelling of building energy consumption falls completely within this context. The field of building energy consumption modelling is th... Read Full Book Chapter Here

Instant Insight

Extreme Market Distortions Canadian Crude Oil Flows

27 December 2020

With extensive natural resources and strategic access to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, Canada has the potential to become a global energy powerhouse – provided that the nation is successful in alleviating its infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the United S...

Data Insight

Real Gross Domestic Income for Saudi Arabia: A Measure of National Income

27 December 2020

“A country’s national income is defined as the total market value of its output. The most used measure for national income is gross domestic product (GDP). One way to estimate GDP for a country is to sum its government consumption, private consumption, investment, and e...

KAPSARC journal article

Gasoline Demand Elasticities at the Backdrop of Lower Oil Prices: Fuel-Subsidizing Country Case

23 December 2020

Data Insight

Charting Saudi Energy Flows

21 December 2020

KAPSARC has developed an energy flow chart for Saudi Arabia. The graphic provides a comprehensive view of the Kingdom’s energy profile, breaking down energy supply by source, sector, and electric power.

Discussion paper

Saudi Arabia Energy Report

15 December 2020

Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s leading oil producers and exporters. It has the second-largest proven crude oil reserves after Venezuela. Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves have made it one of the most significant players in the global oil market. The country also possesses vast reserves...

Instant Insight

COVID-19 and Mobility in Riyadh: An Analysis of Changes in Motorized Trips and Possible Emission Loss

15 December 2020

In this insight, we investigate the implications of COVID-19 on mobility in Riyadh. COVID-19 has impacted our world, leading to a ‘new norm’ for our standard of living. Countries have restricted personal mobility significantly, among other measures, to control the spread of the viru...

KAPSARC journal article

Renewables and the Future of Geopolitics: Revisiting Main Concepts of International Relations from the Lens of Renewables

14 December 2020

The development of renewable energy is often treated as a purely positive outcome for the world, without consideration of the challenges that come with implementation at scale, which will inevitably follow with the process of a global energy transition. Studies on the political proce...

Report

How the World Trading System Promotes and Impedes the Diversification of Developing Countries

11 December 2020

Diversification is important because it is associated with economic growth and reduced volatility. Export diversification is especially important for developing countries as a source of foreign exchange and imported know-how. We examine how export diversification is affected by trade...

KAPSARC journal article

How Responsive is Saudi New Vehicle Fleet Fuel Economy to Fuel-and Vehicle-price Policy Levers?

01 December 2020

This paper investigates the drivers of recent improvements in Saudi Arabia’s fleet fuel economy for new vehicles including passenger cars and light-duty trucks. Vehicle choice models are estimated using both aggregate new vehicle sales data and disaggregate new vehicle buyer su...

KAPSARC journal article

The Value of Storage in Electricity Generation: A Qualitative and Quantitative Review

26 November 2020

Electricity storage (ES) is a technology that can complement variable renewable generation in the widely sought low-carbon future. Given the several unique features of ES, it is important for utilities, investors, and regulators to understand how ES evaluation is conducted for effect...

Discussion paper

The Value of Storage in Electricity Generation: A Qualitative and Quantitative Review

26 November 2020

Electricity storage technology has many useful applications in the energy sector and can complement variable renewable power generation to achieve a low-carbon future. For policymakers, utilities, and investors, effective decisions in this context requir...

Instant Insight

Unlocking the Asian Market for Canadian Oil Producers

26 November 2020

On Friday, September 23, 2020, United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump gave the green light to a 2,570 kilometer (km) rail link proposed by the private company Alberta to Alaska (A2A). According to A2A, the rail link will be able to carry up to 2 million barrels of oil per day (M...

Workshop brief

The Path Toward a Hydrogen Economy: How Industry Can Broaden the Use of Hydrogen

26 November 2020

In the past couple of years, it became evident that hydrogen would need to play a pivotal role in a carbon-free energy system. It would help decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors and act as an energy carrier to manage large variability in renewable energy production and enhance energy se...

Instant Insight

World’s First Blue Ammonia Shipment Signals Prospective New Low-Carbon Energy Trade for Saudi Arabia

26 November 2020

On September 27, 2020, Saudi Aramco successfully exported the world’s first shipment of carbon-neutral ammonia to Japan, helping to fuel the nascent Japanese hydrogen economy. This pilot shipment of 40 tonnes is an important realization of the hydrogen economy for both the Kingdom of...

KAPSARC journal article

Energy Price Reform in Saudi Arabia: Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts and Understanding the Demand Response

25 November 2020

Saudi Arabia has regulated domestic energy prices for decades, setting them below international market levels. Energy subsidies in Saudi Arabia are generally implicit because they lead to foregone revenues for the government. Low energy prices also encourage rapid energy demand growt...

Discussion paper

Distribution Networks Tariff Design in the Era of Decentralization: A Business Model Approach

25 November 2020

In this paper we discuss the unexplored two-way relationship between distribution network tariff design and the emergence of new business models in the power sector. Distribution network tariffs have traditionally used a cost accounting method. We suggest, instead, the use of a busin...

Discussion paper

Energy Security and Portfolio Diversification: The Exporter’s Perspective

25 November 2020

Despite the increasing attention paid to energy security and the continuously broadening scope of the field, the perspective of energy importing countries (i.e., supply security) has overshadowed that of exporters, who seek to ensure demand security. As official statements and policy...

Workshop brief

Opportunities for Natural Gas Trade and Infrastructure in the GCC

16 November 2020

Despite the common interests, markets, and economic policies among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, their energy cooperation has been modest. GCC countries hold 20% of the world’s gas reserves. The Dolphin gas pipeline, connecting Qatar to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and ...

KAPSARC journal article

Gasoline Demand Elasticities at the Backdrop of Lower Oil Prices: Fuel-Subsidzing Country Case

16 November 2020

This study investigates the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand for a fuel subsidizing country case, applying three different time-varying coefficient approaches to the data spanning the period from January 2002 to June 2018. The empirical estimations concluded a cointeg...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

29 October 2020

The global oil market moved into deficit in the third quarter of this year and is expected to remain in deficit during the next eight quarters. We expect the deficit to range between 3.4 – 0.1 million barrels per day (MMb/d) until OPEC ends its cuts in April 2022. The most significan...

KAPSARC journal article

Oman’s Shift to a Post-Oil Economy

27 October 2020

Oman’s economy has grown dramatically since 1970. Until recently, however, Oman’s economic progress has been largely driven by the wealth generated from oil export revenues. Despite historical attempts to diversify the economy away from oil, the state budget has remained domin...

Book/book chapter

Why Should Saudi Arabia Diversify Its Economy?

21 October 2020

Climate change is a global issue. According to an IPCC special report (IPCC, Global warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways,... Read Full Book Chapter Here

KAPSARC journal article

Early Estimates of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on GDP: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

21 October 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic sectors in a very heterogeneous way. In the early stages of the economic lockdown, only limited economic data, if any, related to the event were available. With the government’s discretionary measures to contain the infection, it became obv...

Commentary

China’s Green Freight Policy

13 October 2020

In September 2019, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with the Ministry of National Resources, the Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and the State Railway Group, issued the policy announcement, “Guiding opinions on accelerati...

Data Insight

Saudi Electricity Demand Drops for the First Time on Record

12 October 2020

Since 1990, Saudi Arabia’s electricity consumption has risen rapidly and consistently, at an average rate of around 6% per year. This growth rate is considerably high when compared with the global average growth rate of 3% and 4.8% in developed countries. In 2012, Saudi Arabia establ...

Commentary

Can Cooperation Enhance Natural Gas Utilization in the GCC?

12 October 2020

The last decade saw dramatic changes in the energy sector, including the shale oil and gas boom in the United States (U.S.), a commodity down-cycle, and heightened awareness of the global climate challenge. In response, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countrie...

Discussion paper

Fiscal Multipliers for Saudi Arabia Revisited

05 October 2020

Fiscal policy lies at the heart of key macroeconomic and budgetary decisions and is central to understanding the dynamics of oil rich economies. Fiscal multipliers, including spending multipliers, indicate how changes to fiscal policy can stimulate economic growth, to what magnitude,...

Discussion paper

Electricity Sector Liberalization in Egypt: Features, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Integration

05 October 2020

KAPSARC has initiated a research project to develop insights that can facilitate the establishment of a well-functioning integrated electricity market comprising the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It aims to assess the key issues affecting electricity market int...

Data Insight

Natural Gas Utilization in GCC Countries

22 September 2020

Between 2009 and 2019, marketed gas production by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members has grown at an average rate of 4.8% per annum, from 265 billion standard cubic meters in 2009 to 422 billion standard cubic meters (Bscm) in 2019. This has been driven by increased demand for ga...

Discussion paper

Supply-side Climate Policy for Crude Oil Producers

21 September 2020

This paper considers the potential for supply-side climate policy to increase climate action, with a focus on crude oil producers and exporting countries. To date, supply-side policies have not been widely used in efforts to tackle climate change, and the emerging dialogue on the top...

Discussion paper

On the Incremental Investment in Residential Energy Efficiency: A Saudi Perspective

14 September 2020

It has been shown in the literature that, in aggregate, actual household energy efficiency adoption is less than would be expected economically. Energy economists and policy analysts have described this phenomenon as the ‘energy efficiency gap.’ There could be myriad reasons for this...

Commentary

Saudi Arabia’s Gas Flaring Mitigation Experience

14 September 2020

Gas is envisaged as the fuel of choice in the power sector and is the ideal fuel to help transition toward clean, sustainable, and affordable energy access. As vital as gas is for electricity generation, the petrochemical industry, the transportation sector, and heating, many oil ope...

Discussion paper

Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia

13 September 2020

Aggregate residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia has increased rapidly over the past several decades, largely due to population increases and fast economic growth (SAMA 2019). The growth in electricity consumption has been driven, among other factors, by government-admin...

KAPSARC journal article

Balancing Energy Security Priorities: Portfolio Optimization Approach to Oil Imports

09 September 2020

The notion of energy security in most interpretations includes the physical supply and price affordability components, making financial risks a crucial part of energy security strategies. Mainstream analysis has focussed on the notion of the physical supply. This paper introduces a n...

KAPSARC journal article

Viability of Seasonal Natural Gas Storage in the Saudi Energy System

08 September 2020

Data Insight

Per Capita Regional Electricity Consumption in the Saudi Housing Sector

07 September 2020

Aggregate residential electricity consumption data for Saudi Arabia conceals regional disparities. Although electricity prices are unified across the country, electricity consumption patterns can be driven by regional factors such as wealth, population size, and weather conditions, a...

Data Insight

GCC Residential Electricity Tariffs

07 September 2020

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have raised their domestic energy prices in recent years in a bid to increase energy efficiency, rationalize government spending and balance their budgets. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have taken bold steps to reform th...

Instant Insight

The Impact of the US-China Trade Dispute on the GCC

07 September 2020

The trade dispute between the United States (U.S.) and China has escalated since March 2018. On March 22, 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum directing the U.S. government’s response to the investigation on China’s economic activities, trade policies and p...

Report

Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, Report of the TEAP, Volume 2 Decision XXXI/7 – Continued Provision of Information on Energy-Efficient and Low Global Warming Potential Technologies

01 September 2020

To request the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP) to prepare a report addressing any new developments with respect to best practices, availability, accessibility and cost of energy-efficient technologies in the refrigeration, air-conditioning and heat-pump s...

TEAP Reports

Commentary

Understanding the Evolution of the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Electric Vehicle Subsidies

30 August 2020

Our previous research found that promoting plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption through financial subsidies is expensive. In this commentary, we explore how the cost-effectiveness of the PEV subsidy program has evolved over time. To understand this evolution, we developed vehicle ...

KAPSARC journal article

Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are The Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

26 August 2020

Commentary

What Happened to Residential Electricity Consumption in Saudi Arabia Between 2015 and 2018?

26 August 2020

Between 2007 and 2018, residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia increased by 45%, from around 89 terawatthours (TWh) to 130 TWh (SAMA 2019). Population and gross domestic product (GDP) are two key factors that influence residential electricity consumption.

KAPSARC journal article

The FDI-CO2 Nexus From The Sustainable Development Perspective: The Case of Azerbaijan

25 August 2020

emissions in Azerbaijan utilizing time series data spanning from 1996 to 2013. The structural time series modeling (STSM) approach is employed in empirical estimations. The STSM framework allows parameters to evolve over time. Estimation results show that the coefficients of FDI and...

Instant Insight

The Impact of Restricted Mobility Due to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

23 August 2020

Seven months since the first COVID-19 case was identified in Wuhan, China, the contagious and vastly transmissive virus has continued to spread and grow into a global pandemic affecting more than 20 million people. When the World Health Organization (WHO) announced a Public Health Em...

KAPSARC journal article

19 August 2020

Discussion paper

Sectoral and Economy-Wide Effects of Domestic Energy Price Reforms in Saudi Arabia

19 August 2020

This paper simulates the sectoral and economy-wide consequences of deregulating energy prices in Saudi Arabia. Our analysis is based on KAPSARC’s general equilibrium energy model (KEMGE), a new hybrid computable general equilibrium model (CGE). The model examines the effects of full ...

KAPSARC journal article

Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

12 August 2020

The paper investigates gasoline consumption in case of oil-exporting country applying Time-varying Coefficient Cointegration approach to the data from 1980 to 2017. Empirical estimations show that long-run income and price elasticities are not constant and are responsive to price and...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

06 August 2020

The global oil market is likely to move into deficit as early as this quarter. The most significant driver of this shift has been strong compliance with the production cuts agreed by OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) at the group’s historic April meeting. The cuts agreed at that meeting ...

Discussion paper

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

06 August 2020

Structural changes in the global oil sector are disrupting conventional market dynamics and the roles played by competing and cooperating producers. Industry players are adjusting to the shale (or ‘tight’) oil revolution and the possibility of plateauing or peaking global oil demand....

Data Insight

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation

27 July 2020

Dozens of governments around the world have supported, and still support, renewable energy technology deployment, including solar photovoltaics (PV). This has been driven by their ambitions to be energy independent, meet carbon emissions reduction targets, and contribute to their dom...

Commentary

Toward Fiscal Stability and Sustainable Development: The Role of Sovereign Funds in Saudi Arabia

26 July 2020

The study, “Optimal Policies for Managing Oil Revenu...Resources Policy. It developed a model that optimizes the buildup and drawdown of a stabilization fund. It offers key insights into managing a stabilization fund to support fiscal stability over the short and medium term.

Instant Insight

The Fiscal Response to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

26 July 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to combat it have led to major global disruptions. Policymakers are faced with a dilemma that is not easily resolved. On the one hand, they are striving to protect public health by containing the spread of the virus. On the other, they must ensur...

Instant Insight

The Impact of Recent Changes to China’s Plug-In Electric Vehicle Subsidy Design

19 July 2020

Subsidies that promote plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption have been a key component of China’s overall plan for reducing local air pollution and the greenhouse gas emissions from its light-duty vehicle sector. Since 2009, PEVs qualify for substantial rebates (up to US$9,000) fro...

Discussion paper

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

19 July 2020

A clear objective of Saudi Vision 2030, the strategic roadmap for the future of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is to put the non-oil sector at the heart of the country’s economic development. The vision realization programs (VRPs), such as the National Transformation Program and...

Commentary

Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

16 July 2020

What if OPEC decided to abandon organizing residual production collectively, transitioning the world permanently to a competitive oil market? This commentary is based on a forthcoming KAPSARC paper, “Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual ...

Instant Insight

Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Emissions Steady in 2019 Ahead of Expected 2020 Fall Due to COVID-19

12 July 2020

The 2019 data on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have just been re... On June 3, Enerdata released its data for Saudi Arabia’s 2019 emissions from fuel consumption, estimating them to remain stable at 526.84 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2), slightly down (-0.04%) from 527.05 MtCO2 in 2018.

Data Insight

Social Distancing: The Impact of COVID-19 on Mobility in Saudi Arabia

08 July 2020

Saudi Arabia took early measures to combat the spre... Figure 1 compares the daily change in mobility¹ requests submitted by users of Apple Maps in Saudi Arabia since February 27, 2020 (left axis) with the confirmed cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in the country (right axis).

Discussion paper

Balancing World Oil Markets and Understanding Contango and Inventories: The Changing Nature of World Oil Markets

06 July 2020

The general theory of storage suggests that the level of inventories is a key factor in determining the structure of the oil futures curve, or the basis, over time. The basis is the difference between the price of oil in the futures market and the price of oil in the spot marke...

Instant Insight

The Impact of the Coronavirus Lockdown on the Electricity Sectors in Saudi Arabia and India

05 July 2020

Currently, an estimated third of the global population is under some form of government-imposed lockdown measure aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19. These lockdown measures have had various negative economic effects and could decrease electricity demand (Business Insider 2020). ...

KAPSARC journal article

Residential Energy Efficiency Investment and Behavioural Response Under Different Electricity Pricing Schemes: A Physical-microeconomic Approach

25 June 2020

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of electricity price changes and energy efficiency subsidy on household energy efficiency purchase and/or behavioural adjustment decisions. The analysis adds energy efficiency investment to a methodology that merges the physics of e...

Commentary

Estimating the Size and Efficiency of the Saudi Vehicle Fleet

24 June 2020

Estimates of the size of Saudi Arabia’s vehicle fleet in 2015 vary from as high as 18 million (Arab News 2014) to as low as 6.6 million (OICA 2019). This significant variation stems from the fact that the Kingdom does not operate a vehicle registration program that deletes vehicle re...

KAPSARC journal article

CO2 Emissions-Economic Growth Relationship Revisited: New Insights from the Time-Varying Cointegration Approach

22 June 2020

One of the most discussed topics of Environmental economics is the choice of the appropriate functional form to examine the income-environmental impact relationship. Since the developing economies encounter different development stages, the use of relevant specification and techni...

Discussion paper

Energy Price Reform in Saudi Arabia: Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impact and Understanding the Demand Response

21 June 2020

The government of Saudi Arabia, like many around the world, has long set domestic energy prices far below international market levels. This helps keep prices stable and energy affordable, providing important support to lower-income households.

Data Insight

Saudi Electricity Demand for 2018-2019 based on Saudi Electricity Company Data

21 June 2020

The Saudi government implemented two energy price reforms, in 2016 and 201...
The government also implemented a range of efficiency measures to mitigate electricity demand growth. Since 2016, Saudi electricity demand has flattened at around 300 terawatthours (TWh).

Discussion paper

Saudi Arabia’s Unfolding Power Sector Reform: Features, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Integration

21 June 2020

Today, there is a physical exchange of electricity between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. However, this is not the same as competitive trade in electricity. Numerous studies have shown the efficiency benefits of electricity trade among GCC countries. These studies in...

Data Insight

Saudi Arabian Cement Companies: Upgrading Through Leveraging Overcapacity

21 June 2020

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s annual cement production capacity of 72.4 million tonnes is the highest of any Gulf country. From 2001-2005, Saudi cement production grew at a compound annual growth rate of almost 8%. However, its annual production in 2018 of 42.2 million ...

KAPSARC journal article

Electricity Incentives for Agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is That Relevant to Remove Them?

13 June 2020

Saudi Arabia has been implementing the domestic energy price reform (EPR) and fiscal reform since the end of 2015 under the Fiscal Balance Program (FBP), one of the key realization programs of Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030). The EPR aims to increase the rational consumption of energy an...

Instant Insight

Impact of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Electricity Demand: Global Insights and Implications for Saudi Arabia

11 June 2020

The impact of curfews and lockdowns on total electricity demand as a result of the spread of COVID-19 depends on many factors. This insight provides a summary of the immediate demand impacts in selected regions around the world due to lockdown measures. We will follow this up ...

Instant Insight

Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Saudi GDP

10 June 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted economic and social activity globally at an unprecedented pace. The international movement of goods has been limited to the necessary minimum, often solely for deliveries of protective and healthcare equipment. Many governments have imposed stric...

Methodology paper

World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

10 June 2020

Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear...

KAPSARC journal article

OPEC’s Pursuit of Market Stability

09 June 2020

We investigate attempts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilize the price of oil during the past fifty years. We first develop a novel decomposition of shifts in global demand and non-OPEC supply. This decomposition provides a fresh perspective on the...

KAPSARC journal article

Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?

08 June 2020

) emissions, and oil price on renewable energy con...₂ on renewable energy consumption is negative but statistically insignificant. The results of this article might be beneficial for policymakers and support the current literature for further research for oil-rich developing countries.

KAPSARC journal article

Electric Vehicle Deployment and Carbon Emissions in Saudi Arabia: A Power System Perspective

07 June 2020

Although battery electric vehicles (EVs) are emission-free at the tailpipe, the energy mix that provides electricity to charge EVs is generally not. Ideally, it is desired to charge EVs from a low- or no-carbon energy source to ensure that the emissions avoided from driving EVs outwe...

Instant Insight

Why Did Domestic Gasoline Prices Fall in Saudi Arabia?

07 June 2020

On May 11, 2020, Saudi Arabia slashed its domestic gasoline prices. The price of 91-octane gasoline fell from 1.31 to 0.67 Saudi Arabian riyals (SAR) per liter, while the price of 95-octane gasoline fell from 1.47 to 0.82 SAR per liter. As a result of these price reductions, domestic...

Instant Insight

Long and Short-Term Economic Impact of COVID-19: Does the Future Look Greener?

07 June 2020

COVID-19 initially broke out in China in early January. It has since posed a severe threat to our lives and economies. Millions of infections and hundreds of thousands of deaths have been recorded globally, with more casualties expected in the coming days and months.

Instant Insight

The Role of the Petrochemical Sector in the COVID-19 Pandemic

07 June 2020

Our super-connected world enabled the COVID-19 virus to quickly evolve into a pandemic, bringing the world to a standstill. Millions of people have been infected by the virus, and billions are impacted by lockdown measures to contain it and the consequent global economic slowd...

Commentary

Demystifying Policy Support Mechanisms for Distributed Solar Photovoltaic Systems

03 June 2020

Solar photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation (DG) systems are installed for residential, commercial, and industrial use. PV DG systems in the residential sector typically have capacities below 20 kilowatts (kW). However, commercial and industrial PV DG systems can have capacities o...

Commentary

Industrial Energy Consumption in Saudi Arabia

31 May 2020

In 2017, Saudi Arabia’s total final energy consumption was 140.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). Total final energy consumption is defined as energy used by final consumers (or end users). It includes electricity use in residential buildings, gasoline use in cars, and...

Instant Insight

COVID-19 and Employment in Saudi Arabia: An Initial Assessment

28 May 2020

In the space of a few short weeks in March, the COVID-19 pandemic took over every aspect of our lives and caused the global economy to grind to a standstill. Health concerns over the spread and mortality rate of the virus understandably took priority in the first phase of the pandemi...

Discussion paper

Analyzing the Effects of Saudi Arabia’s Economic Reforms Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

21 May 2020

Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest holder of proved oil reserves and the second-largest producer of petroleum liquids. The country is the largest exporter of crude oil, with a share of 16% of total crude oil exports in 2017. Saudi Arabia’s economy is heavily oil de...

Workshop brief

Overcoming Challenges to Developing a Well-Functioning Electricity Market in GCC and MENA

21 May 2020

This is Workshop Brief reports on the insights derived from roundtable deliberations that focused on how to establish a well-functioning cross-border electricity market in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region.

Instant Insight

The Impact of COVID-19 on Transport and Gasoline Demand

20 May 2020

In the last few months, the world has experienced the negative effects of COVID-19. The outbreak, which started as an epidemic concentrated in China, quickly spread to become a global pandemic. As of May 12, 2020, there have been over four million COVID-19 cases globally, and this nu...

Instant Insight

Oil’s Demanding Road to Recovery

20 May 2020

As of May 1, OPEC+ members officially began implementing supply limits, with several countries outside the group providing support on their own terms. While this cooperation will provide much needed support to the market, demand-side factors continue to dominate the effects of the pa...

Instant Insight

WTI Negative Price and Cushing, Oklahoma, Crude Oil Storage Capacity: The Importance of 15%

13 May 2020

Working storage capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma, is approximately 77 million barrels, which represents about 15% of the United States’ (U.S.) total working crude oil storage capacity, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Cushing storage is important to the U.S. crude oil industry...

Workshop brief

Changing Energy Supply Economics in Saudi Arabia in the Context of Global Transitions

07 May 2020

Many factors, local and global, will impact Saudi Arabia’s electricity sector and energy markets. The Kingdom has committed to deploying a significant share of renewable energy by 2030 and is considering plans to add nuclear power to its energy mix. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is ...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

05 May 2020

The recent declaration by OPEC and its partners (OPEC+), alongside the G20 and some non-G20 countries (OPEC++), to cut oil production should help stabilize the market over the coming quarters. OPEC+ took the lead in finalizing the agreement to cut global production by 9.7 million bar...

KAPSARC journal article

Effectiveness of China’s Plug-in Electric Vehicle Subsidy

01 May 2020

Subsidies for promoting plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption are a key component of China’s overall plan for reducing local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the light-duty vehicle sector. In this paper, we explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of the Chine...

Discussion paper

Electricity Demand Modeling in Saudi Arabia: Do Regional Differences Matter

30 April 2020

Energy is a pervasive input to all business and recreational activities. As such, total energy demand is an important indicator that helps explain the pattern of economic development within a country. Identifying and understanding the key determinants of electricity demand is ...

KAPSARC journal article

Optimal Policies for Managing Oil Revenue Stabilization Funds: An Illustration Using Saudi Arabia

28 April 2020

We develop an analytical approach that offers insights into how governments can better manage an oil-revenue stabilization fund. The model maximizes the expected intertemporal utility of households and consists of decisions that are a function of the fund level and oil revenue. We ap...

Data Insight

Energy Exchanges on GCCIA Interconnector

27 April 2020

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) interconnection grid has linked the national grids of the six GCC countries since 2011. It is run by the GCC Interconnection Authority (GCCIA). It has been primarily designed to provide GCC member countries with alternative sources of operating rese...

Data Insight

Crude Oil Reserves Metrics of GCC Members

27 April 2020

As of December 2018, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries had combined proven reserves of 497 billion barrels of crude oil. This represents approximately 34% of the world’s estimated proven crude reserves.

KAPSARC journal article

Understanding Latent Demand for Hybrid and Plug-in Electric Vehicles Using Large-scale Longitudinal Survey Data of US New Vehicle Buyers

27 April 2020

Consumer adoption of fuel-efficient vehicles is a crucial step in improving energy efficiency of the light-duty vehicle sector. To promote adoption, policymakers have employed various demand- and supply-side policies including incentives, fuel economy standards, zero emission vehicle...

Discussion paper

Designing Transport Policy for Sustainable Freight Movement in Saudi Arabia

27 April 2020

Logistics and infrastructure policy will play key roles in Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification and reform efforts. This study provides a quantitative assessment of specific measures related to freight transport, taking into consideration the heterogeneity of urban, regional...

KAPSARC journal article

Eliciting preferences of TNC users and drivers: Evidence from the United States

25 April 2020

Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) are changing the transportation ecosystem, but micro-decisions of travelers and TNC drivers need to be better understood to assess their system-level impacts. Using a unique sample (N = 11,902) of the U.S. population residing in TNC-served area...

KAPSARC journal article

Electricity demand modeling in Saudi Arabia: Do regional differences matter?

25 April 2020

The paper examines the electricity demand behavior for Saudi Arabia, using annual data for the period of 1990–2016, at regional level. The study finds that income, price and population are the main drivers of electricity demand at regional level. Although, the impacts vary across reg...

KAPSARC journal article

Environmental consequences of tourism: do oil-exporting countries import more CO2 emissions?

23 April 2020

emissions are in line with the expectations, considering the developing path of the country. Moreover, the impacts of imports and exports are found to be positive and negative, respectively, which are in line with the expectations and with the theoretical findings discussed in the th...

Discussion paper

Assessing Residential Solar Rooftop Potential in Saudi Arabia Using Nighttime Satellite Images: A Study for the City of Riyadh

20 April 2020

rojects as a first step toward diversifying its electricity generation mix, currently based almost entirely on crude oil, refined oil products and natural gas. The Saudi National Renewable Energy Program aims to substantially increase the share of renewable energy in the...y 2023.

Instant Insight

A Look Back on Saudi Fossil Fuel Incentives in the Last Decade

19 April 2020

The Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) and the Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) have just released energy use data for 2019. This insight provides an up-to-date estimation of how fossil fuel incentives have changed in 2019 compared with 2009.

Instant Insight

The Prospect of Unconventional Gas Development in Saudi Arabia

19 April 2020

In February 2020, Saudi Aramco announced that it obtained regulatory approval to develop the Jafurah Basin, Saudi Arabia’s largest unconventional natural gas field (Figure 1). Situated east of the giant Ghawar oilfield, it contains 200 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas resources.

Methodology paper

Saudi Vision 2030 Dynamic Input-Output Table: Combining Macroeconomic Forecasts With the RAS Method

12 April 2020

When an economy is in the midst of a transformation and diversification process, it is hard to assume that its sectoral composition and inter-industry transactions will remain unchanged. This is especially the case since substantial adjustments to a country’s economic structure are a...

Data Insight

Saudi Arabia Imports by Major Customs Ports (2014 – 2018)

07 April 2020

Saudi Arabia’s top three import destinations are the Jeddah Islamic Port, the King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam and the King Khalid International Airport with 29%, 20% and 12% of the total value of imports in 2018, respectively. The total value of imports in these destinations is US$84 b...

Discussion paper

Modeling Sectoral Employment in Saudi Arabia

07 April 2020

chieving the desired level of employment is central to macroeconomic policy. Regulators should have a better understanding of employment dynamics in order to design appropriate policies and test their impact. Healthy employment levels not only benefit househo...

Data Insight

Solar Energy in Saudi Arabia

06 April 2020

In building a global hub for renewable energy, the Kingdom aims to future-proof its economy by relying less on oil export revenues and attracting new technologies into the region. Saudi Arabia is one of the best-placed countries to harness solar energy, with some of the highes...

KAPSARC journal article

Revisiting Energy Demand Relationship: Theory and Empirical Application

06 April 2020

In this paper, we revisit the theoretical framework for energy demand. We then use this theoretical framework to empirically model the Saudi Arabian industrial electricity demand. We show, in the case of Saudi Arabian data, that imposing parsimonious energy demand specification on da...

Workshop brief

Green Growth Pathways for Saudi Arabia

06 April 2020

Green growth emphasizes that positive environmental outcomes can be consistent with economic prosperity and that greater social wellbeing can be achieved through ‘less use, more value’ policies.

Commentary

Is Saudi Arabia Getting Warmer?

06 April 2020

According to NASA, the world is getting warmer. Warmer weather increases the ...¹ for 13 cities spread across Saudi Arabia over 29 years (from 1990 to 2018). The cities included Riyadh, Jeddah, Dhahran, Madinah, Arar, Sakaka, Tabuk, Hail, Buraydah, Albaha, Abha, Jazan, and Najran.

Data Insight

Crude Oil and Refined Products

06 April 2020

The power sector in Saudi Arabia makes up just over half of the natural gas demand in the Kingdom, followed by the industrial sector and non-energy use as a feedstock for petrochemicals.

KAPSARC journal article

Transitioning to High Efficiency Air Conditioning in Saudi Arabia: A Benefit Cost Analysis for Residential Buildings

01 April 2020

This paper assesses the benefits of transitioning to high efficiency air conditioning (AC) equipment for existing units specific to the residential building stock in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The analysis is based on a calibrated residential building stock model for Saudi Ar...

KAPSARC journal article

World Equity Markets and COVID-19: Immediate Response and Recovery Prospects. Research in international Business and Finance

15 March 2020

Saudi Arabia has witnessed explosive population growth over the past half century. The Kingdom’s population is expected to continue to grow and generate more housing demand in the coming decades. As the country attempts to curb its fast growing domestic energy consumption, pop...

Methodology paper

Implementing Alternative Pricing Policies in Economic Equilibrium Models Using the Extended Mathematical Programming Framework

12 March 2020

Standard economic optimization models represent markets in perfect competition. They are commonly used, though they may not accurately represent real-world policies and regulations. Equilibrium models built using a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) approach are capable of simulatin...

Instant Insight

09 March 2020

We live in an unprecedented time for the energy sector. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019, electricity generated from renewable sources is at a historic high, with about 2,500 terrawatthours (TWh) produced in 2018 (Figure 1). This is more than...

Workshop brief

Policy and Economic Frameworks to Deepen Sino-Saudi Cooperation

09 March 2020

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded from 65 original member states during its official launch in 2015 to 131 as of April 2019. The countries of the Middle East and North Africa have generally welcomed the initiative and its goal of improving regional connectivity. However...

Workshop brief

Assessing the Gas Market Potential in India

08 March 2020

India faces a p... needs — yet the gas sector has struggled since 2010. The main obstacles to increasing the share of gas in the energy mix are a slowdown in domestic production, pricing and allocation issues, inefficient regulatory practices, and inadequate infrastructure.

Discussion paper

The Opportunity Cost of Domestic Oil Consumption for an Oil Exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia

01 March 2020

When appraising investment projects from a public perspective, a barrel of oil displaced from or added to domestic consumption has to be valued at its opportunity cost. This paper develops a partial-equilibrium framework to assess the opportunity cost of domestic oil consumption for ...

Discussion paper

Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

24 February 2020

Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The basis also refle...

Discussion paper

Eliciting Preferences of Ride-Hailing Users and Drivers

24 February 2020

The ‘ride-hailing’ services offered by transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft have rapidly disrupted personal transportation, particularly in cities. Schaller (2018) reports that TNCs provided 2.6 billion rides in 2017 in the United States (U.S.), a 37% increa...

Instant Insight

Assessment of Coronavirus Effects on Oil Demand Implied by Price Elasticities

20 February 2020

There appears to be a significant response in the crude oil markets to the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has since spread globally. Many cities in Hubei, of which Wuhan is the capital, have been quarantined, with many airlines suspend...

Workshop brief

Exploring the Effects of Transport Policies on Energy Consumption in Freight Transportation – The Saudi Perspective

19 February 2020

The freight sector is at the heart of global economic activity, one of the biggest energy consumers globally and a key contributor to emissions in the transport sector. It is estimated that over 12% of all global energy consumption is related to freight transport. In the past d...

Instant Insight

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook &#8211; Update

18 February 2020

China reported an outbreak of a SARS-like viral infection on December 31, 2019. The disease, officially named COVID-19, was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and continues to spread globally. Initial symptoms are similar to the common cold, but in severe cases...

Workshop brief

Analytical Approaches to Blending Political Science With the Study of Energy Markets

18 February 2020

Energy is arguably the most valuable traded commodity in the world. Unlike most other commodities, energy resources are essential for economic and military activity and therefore have unique strategic importance, especially because states vary widely in their energy resource endowmen...

Data Insight

Saudi Arabia’s Residential Solar Energy Use and Prospects

13 February 2020

In an effort to diversify the energy mix of Saudi Arabia’s residential sector, the Electricity and Cogeneration Regularity Authority introduced regulations in August 2017, allowing households to use solar energy to generate their own electricity.

Discussion paper

KGEMM: A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia

13 February 2020

The KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Data Insight

Fuel Mix for Power Generation and Water Desalination in Saudi Arabia

11 February 2020

Saudi Arabia’s fuel mix for power generation and water desalination comprises natural gas (57%) and a suite of liquid fuels (43%). Liquid fuels include crude oil, heavy fuel oil (HFO), and diesel.

Data Insight

India’s Crude Oil Imports From the Middle East

11 February 2020

India’s oil imports have risen significantly since the 1990s, when it imported fewer than one million barrels of oil per day.

Instant Insight

Oil Market Reactions to Recent Geopolitical Events

11 February 2020

The prices for crude oil reported on both the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, London) reflect the oil market’s expectations for the future balance of oil supply and demand. In the face of significant geopolitical events, the observed price...

KAPSARC journal article

Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey

07 February 2020

The current paper investigates the gasoline demand relationship in the case of Turkey, utilizing different econometric techniques and using quarterly data spanning from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1. The estimation results revealed that income and gasoline price are the main drivers of consumptio...

Methodology paper

K-DSGE: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Saudi Arabia

03 February 2020

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Saudi Arabian economy, developed by KAPSARC researchers. The K-DSGE model is to be used for simulations and experiments to assess the impact of economic reforms within the Saudi Vision 2030 framework. T...

Report

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

30 January 2020

The recent declaration by OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) to cut oil production by a further 500 thousand barrels per day (Kb/d) should help stabilize prices, which should, in turn, help smaller shale producers. Balancing the market in this manner risks supporting shale producers and f...

Instant Insight

U.S.-Iran Tensions and the Waiver Renewal for Iranian Gas Exports to Iraq

30 January 2020

Following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3, as a result of a United States (U.S.) airstrike, the Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution stating that it “must work to end the presence of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil and prohibit them from ...

Discussion paper

Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility

23 January 2020

In this paper, joint oil stockpiling (JOS) refers to a commercial arrangement whereby crude oil, owned and commercially traded by an exporting country, is stored in an importing country in exchange for priority drawdown by the host country in the event of an emergency. It can t...

Instant Insight

Saudi Arabia’s 2018 CO2 Emissions Fall Faster Than Expected

21 January 2020

The data used in the previous analysis has been updated by Enerdata, with material revisions to the estimates for 2018 carbon diox...₂) emissions. Due to media interest in this topic, we have updated our analysis to reflect the most recent information (downloaded January 9, 2020).

KAPSARC journal article

Residential Building Stock Model for Evaluating Energy Retrofit Programs in Saudi Arabia

20 January 2020

A building stock model t represent energy performance of KSA existing housing units is developed. The building stock model has been applied to evaluate the benefits of energy retrofit programs.

Commentary

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

16 January 2020

Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030), the strategic roadmap for the future of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, aims to decouple the country’s economy from its reliance on oil revenues through implementing several economic and social initiatives. The key economic goals of SV2030 announced in 2016 ...

Discussion paper

The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

16 January 2020

In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile, global market dy...

Commentary

Carbon Sequestration Units (CSUs): A New Tool to Mitigate Carbon Emissions

13 January 2020

The United Kingdom’s decision to aim for net zero emissions by 2050 and to enshrine it in law raises the bar for global policymakers as the world seeks to limit the impact of climate change. A recent European Commission paper outlined policy pathways toward carbon neutrality by 2050,...

Commentary

Natural Gas Strategies for the Saudi Energy System

13 January 2020

Fuel prices in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have historically been below international market values. This has stimulated rapid growth in primary energy demand. The Kingdom’s natural gas demand has now outstripped its domestic production, forcing the government to impose rations on co...

Discussion paper

China’s Energy Investment Through the Lens of the Belt and Road Initiative

12 January 2020

The Chinese government launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 as a vision to promote... people-to-people bonds. Thousands of BRI projects have already been approved, with a total investment potential of $1.2-1.3 trillion by 2027 (IDSA 2019, Morgan Stanley 2018).

KAPSARC journal article

Staying Cool in A Warming Climate: Temperature, Electricity and Air Conditioning in Saudi Arabia

09 January 2020

As global temperatures warm and populations and incomes rise, the demand for cooling will soa...₂) emissions. This study explores the relationship between temperature, electricity, air conditioning (AC) and CO₂ emissions, and the sustainability of cooling in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

KAPSARC journal article

Modelling industrial energy demand in Saudi Arabia

01 January 2020

Between 1986 and 2016, industrial energy consumption in Saudi Arabia increased by tenfold, making it one of the largest end-use sectors in the Kingdom. Despite its importance, there appear to be no published econometric studies on aggregate industrial energy demand in Saudi Arabia. W...

Commentary

India’s Future Commitments to the Paris Agreement: A Conflict Between Energy Security and Economic Growth

01 January 2020

From 2-15 December, 2018, almost 200 countries gathered at the 2018 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Katowice, Poland to adopt a set of guidelines to limit global warming. During this event, India reaffirmed its promise to implement the Paris Agreement, collectively with o...

Discussion paper

The Effectiveness of China’s Plug-In Electric Vehicle Subsidy

29 December 2019

Subsidies for promoting plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption are a key component of China’s overall plan for reducing local air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from its light-duty vehicle sector. This paper explores the impact and cost-effectiveness of the Chinese PEV...

Commentary

An Alternative Framework for Measuring New Vehicle Buyers’ Responsiveness to Changes in Fuel Prices

26 December 2019

This commentary uses a cost per perceived value (CPPV) based utility maximization framework to measure new vehicle buyers’ responsiveness to changes in fuel prices. We recently used the CPPV framework to estimate the responsiveness of new light-duty vehicle (LDV) buyers to changes in...

Discussion paper

Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

26 December 2019

After the drop in international oil prices in 2014, oil-exporting countries started to launch new policies to develop their economies. It is important that policymakers involved in energy and economic development understand how economic agents respond to increased energy prices and h...

Data Insight

The Growth of India’s Electricity Generation Capacity

26 December 2019

15 December 2019

The government of Saudi Arabia has successfully reduced the country’s energy intensity, helped by its establishment of the Saudi Energy Efficiency Center (SEEC) and a series of energy price reforms (EPR) that began in 2016. However, how households have responded to the EPR is an impo...

Data Insight

India’s Rising Imports of LNG

15 December 2019

In 2017, India imported 20 million metric tons (MMmt) of liquefied natural gas (LNG), making it the world’s fourth-largest importer behind Japan, China and South Korea.

Instant Insight

Implications of IMO 2020: The Potential for High Sulfur Fuel Oil Penetration in Saudi Arabia

12 December 2019

January 1, 2020 marks the enforcement of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) rule on limiting sulfur emissions from ships (IMO 2020). The rule mandates ships to reduce the sulfur content in their fuels to 0.5% from the current 3.5%. This suggests that ship owners and oper...

Commentary

The Changing Impact of Income and Price on Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia

11 December 2019

The growth path of gasoline demand, a key strategic fuel, has important implications for oil security, oil-related carbon emissions, and refinery investment (Dahl 2012). As such, understanding how fluctuations in income and gasoline prices could affect the demand for oil in Saudi Ara...

Instant Insight

COP 25: Negotiating the Rules for a Future Global Carbon Market Under Article 6

09 December 2019

The design of the rulebook for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is one the most significant and highly anticipated outcomes of the twenty-fifth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 25) taking place in Madrid in December 2019.

Instant Insight

India’s Push to Renegotiate Long-Term LNG Contracts

08 December 2019

On August 26, 2019, India’s petroleum minister Dharmendra Pradhan announced that he would consider “a review of liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices under [India’s] long-term contracts”. However, Mr. Pradhan did not lay out a timeline for the review and reiterated that existing contrac...

Discussion paper

Viability of Seasonal Natural Gas Storage in the Saudi Energy System

08 December 2019

Saudi Arabia expects to double its natural gas production within the next decade. This increased domestic supply is expected to meet the demand for gas from Saudi Arabia’s industrial development and, most importantly, to displace liquid fuels in its electricity sector. Given the stro...

Data Insight

India's Transport CO2 Emissions and Value Added Contribution

05 December 2019

India is one of the largest economies in the world and, consequently, holds an important position in global climate politics. According to India’s Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, the country has some 230 million vehicles. This insight sheds light on the contribution of the t...

Instant Insight

What is Behind the Recent Fall in Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Emissions?

04 December 2019

The International Energy Agency has recently released data showing that in 2018 Saudi Arabia’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 15 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2), or 2.7%, from 577 MtCO2 to 562 MtCO2. This is significant as it is Saudi Arabia’s first large policy-induced reducti...

KAPSARC journal article

Techo-economic Assessment of a Solar Powered Absorption Chiller Coupled With Shallow-geothermal Ground Loop

04 December 2019

Instant Insight

The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

04 December 2019

After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth more than $100 billion.

Commentary

Aramco’s LNG strategy: Opportunities and Options

04 December 2019

Saudi Arabia has taken a major step into global gas markets with Saudi Aramco signing a heads of agreement (HoA) with Sempra Energy. The HoA includes a 20-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) for 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from phase 1 of the ...

Discussion paper

Renewable Energy and Employment: The Experience of Egypt, Jordan and Morocco

21 November 2019

The benefits of smart city are enormous. But the list of challenges in their planning, development, and operation is long and difficult to overcome. Two important questions to policymakers and stakeholders: (1) What are the new energy problems in smart city? and (2) What are the appr...

Instant Insight

The Potential for Distributed Solar PV Systems in Riyadh

18 November 2019

The country’s regulator, the Electricity and Co-Generation Regulatory Authority (ECRA) has also released provisional bylaws that will govern how distributed generation (DG) would be compensated within the Kingdom. Many governmental organizations mandated to support local industries a...

Discussion paper

Political Feasibility of Enhancing the Russian Emissions Reduction Target Under the Paris Agreement

13 November 2019

It is widely recognized that the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement fall short of achieving the 2 degrees Celsius global warming target, agreed as the central goal of the agreement and its parties. Given this, KAPSARC has set out to explore the political feasibility of enhanc...

KAPSARC journal article

Growing energy demand in the GCC countries

This paper explores the value of explicitly integrating the modeling of political concerns into a model of energy market projections. This is achieved by assessing the impact on global gas markets of political constraints on restarting Japanese nuclear reactors. The 2018 KAPSARC disc...

Discussion paper

Can Japanese Nuclear Power Be Restarted Sooner? A Simulation of Alternative Scenarios

27 October 2019

This study assesses whether there are politically plausible paths to more quickly gain support for restarting Japanese nuclear power plants and considers alternative scenarios. It builds on the 2018 KAPSARC discussion paper, “The Policymaking Process to Restart Japanese Nuclear Power...

Instant Insight

The Use of Blockchain Technology in Saudi Logistics

22 October 2019

On September 21, 2019, Saudi Customs, the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, the Saudi Ports Authority, and the logistics firm, A.P. Moller – Maersk, jointly announced the successful completion of a blockchain pilot project tracking a shipping container from King ...

Methodology paper

A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

20 October 2019

The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a detailed description of the scope of KOMO...

Commentary

Electricity Sector Reforms in Abu Dhabi and Oman: What Have We Learned?

20 October 2019

Chile was the first country to reform its electricity sector. The reform program was first mooted when Chile’s National Energy Commission was established in 1978; it took off with the enactment of the country’s Electricity Sector Law in 1982. This law is still cited as landmark legis...

Workshop brief

Macroeconomic Stability and Economic Diversification in Oil-Dependent Countries

16 October 2019

Oil-dependent economies are vulnerable to macroeconomic fiscal instability stemming from high oil price volatility in the short – run and the exhaustibility of oil in the long – run. The workshop discussed the main challenges confronting oil-dependent economies that could stop them f...

Discussion paper

Electric Vehicle Deployment and Carbon Emissions in Saudi Arabia: A Power System Perspective

09 October 2019

A power system model for Saudi Arabia was built to quantify the carbon emission implications of deploying electric vehicles (EVs) within the Kingdom. The model represented the four operating regions in the Kingdom as segmented by the electricity regulator.

Data Insight

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation

06 October 2019

Dozens of governments around the world have supported, and still support, renewable energy technology deployment, including solar photovoltaics (PV). This has been driven by their ambitions to be energy independent, meet carbon emission reduction targets, and contribute to their dome...

KAPSARC journal article

The Role of Oil in the Allocation of Foreign Aid: The Case of G7 Donors

03 October 2019

Aid allocated by G7 donors increases significantly with oil endowment of recipient countries. Motivated by energy security concerns, G7 donors compete for oil resources in their provision of foreign aid.

KAPSARC journal article

Degree of stringency matters: Revisiting the pollution haven hypothesis based on the heterogeneous panels and aggregate data

01 October 2019

Empirical studies on the trade-environment nexus that use panel data face two simultaneous challenges. One is associated with the potential presence of unobserved cross-country heterogeneity, while the other is due to the use of aggregate data. In this paper, we apply both the dynami...

Discussion paper

The Potential of Distributed Solar PV Capacity in Riyadh: A GIS-Assisted Study

01 October 2019

Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, commonly referred to as distributed generation (DG) solar systems, can play a central role in the energy mix for sustainable cities. As with all forms of power generation, DG carries technical, financial, policy, and market implications that i...

Data Insight

Crude Oil Use in the Saudi Electricity Sector

29 September 2019

12 September 2019

On August 28, 2019, the United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed a series of amendments to Obama-era environmental regulations covering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that it claims will save the oil and gas industry millions of dollars in compliance costs....

KAPSARC journal article

An overview of key evolutions in the light-duty vehicle sector and their impact on oil demand

09 September 2019

The light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector is undergoing many changes, including technological advancements (e.g., vehicle electrification, automation), new business models (e.g., ride-hailing), and government regulations and policies (e.g., fuel economy (FE) standards, zero-emission vehicl...

Instant Insight

Aramco and Reliance: Alliance Between Giants

09 September 2019

India’s Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) announced at its 42nd annual general meeting that it had signed a letter of intent to sell a 20% stake in RIL’s chemicals, refining and fuel marketing (oil-to-chemicals [O2C]) business to Saudi Aramco in a deal valued at $15 billion. This deal in...

Discussion paper

Assessing Energy Policy Instruments: LNG Imports Into Saudi Arabia

02 September 2019

Natural gas is already playing a prominent role in diversifying Saudi Arabia’s power mix away from a heavy reliance on oil-based fuels. Between 2010 and 2017, the share of natural gas used in power generation in Saudi Arabia grew from 44% to 54%. The country’s gas fields are being de...

Instant Insight

Is the Time Ripe for Private Investment in Interconnections in the MENA Region?

02 September 2019

Efforts to integrate power systems and markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are gaining momentum. With rapidly growing regional electricity demand, the development of an integrated electricity market ha...

KAPSARC journal article

Solar PV on mosque rooftops: Results from a pilot study in Saudi Arabia

01 September 2019

Instant Insight

Gasoline Price Reform in Saudi Arabia

01 September 2019

Saudi Arabia has been adjusting gasoline prices on a quarterly basis since the start of 2019, with the most recent adjustment occurring on July 14, 2019. These adjustments depend on changes in international oil prices, and are smaller than the major changes in gasoline prices that oc...

Commentary

KAPSARC’s Contribution to Evaluating the Impact of Price Controls

01 September 2019

has just published a paper, “Measuring the effects of price controls using mixed complementarity models” (2019). It detailed a series of innovative modeling approaches developed by KAPSARC researchers over the last six years. The models were used to study the effects of administered...

Discussion paper

Finding a Viable Path to Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

21 July 2019

The purchase of insurance would help most consumers avoid a complete loss of power. Our simulations show that of those households that would otherwise experience a complete loss of power, on average between 1% and 15% can fully cover their excess energy needs through insurance. Betw...

Instant Insight

Impact of China’s Plug-In Electric Vehicle Subsidy Reduction

17 July 2019

PEV subsidies are one of the most commonly used policy levers for encouraging PEV purchases globally, including in China. They reduce the high up-front purchase price of PEVs relative to comparable ICEVs, one of the major barriers to PEV adoption. Since 2009, PEVs qualify for su...

KAPSARC journal article

An adaptive policy-based framework for China’s Carbon Capture and Storage development

12 July 2019

) emissions will peak around 2030 and enacting measures through the 13th Five-Year Plan to support energy efficiency, clean energy technology, and carbon management. Chinese policymakers consider carbon capture and storage (CCS) a critical bridging technology to help accelerate the d...

Instant Insight

How to Empower Saudi Women in the Labor Force?

07 July 2019

In the week when Saudi Arabia celebrated its first anniversary of women drivers in the Kingdom and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accepted the chair of the G20 summit for 2020, G20 countries – including Saudi Arabia – reaffirmed their commitment to furthering the empowerm...

KAPSARC journal article

State-of-Charge Effects on Standalone Solar-Storage Systems in Hot Climates: A Case Study in Saudi Arabia

24 June 2019

In this paper, we quantify the economic and environmental implications of operating a standalone photovoltaic-battery system (PVB) while varying the battery’s minimum allowable state of charge (MSOC), the load profile, and simultaneously incorporating ambient temperature effects in h...

Book/book chapter

The Future of Gas in the Gulf: Continuity and Change

15 June 2019

. The book comprises in-depth studies of a smaller set of countries, but those of critical regional and international importance to the future of gas: Qatar, Iran, Oman, Saudi... https://www.oxfordenergy.org/shop/the-future-of-gas-in-the-gulf-continuity-and-change/?v=3dd6b9265ff1

Discussion paper

Gas Demand Growth Beyond Power Generation

31 May 2019

Electri...
Countries including China and India have aggressively promoted the use of natural gas through mandates and subsidies, with the aim of improving local air quality. The success of these initiatives shows that policy support is sometimes needed to promote gas in the energy mix.

Discussion paper

Oman Electricity Sector: Features, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Integration

29 May 2019

Regulatory oversight through a financially and administratively independent regulator with an adequate mandate, the Authority for Electricity Regulation, ...
Oman intends to implement a new arrangement for the future procurement of electricity through the spot market by 2020.

Discussion paper

An Economic Analysis of China’s Domestic Crude Oil Supply Policies

28 May 2019

The level of uneconomic oil production in China is highly sensitive to the international oil price. At $50/bbl about 9 million tonnes of domestic supplies are foun...
Rising crude oil import prices since mid-2017 may allow policymakers to further deregulate China’s domestic oil sector.

Discussion paper

Balancing Energy Security Priorities: A Portfolio Optimization Approach to Oil Imports

28 May 2019

The risk premium associated with passing through the Malacca Straits would result in a 27.5% increase in price volatility for China’s oil imports, although the negative impact on its average import price level would be less pronounced, at 2.6% compared to between 5.2% and 5.8% for t...

Workshop brief

Policy Levers for Promoting Fuel-Efficient Mobility

02 May 2019

Reduced costs for new and replacement batteries, reduced electric vehicle manufacturing costs through economies of scale and reduction in electric vehicle (EV) depreciation rates will be critical if EVs are to achieve unsubsidized cost competitiveness with internal combustion engine...

Discussion paper

Drivers of New Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Fuel Economy in Saudi Arabia

30 April 2019

The estimated elasticities, and thus policy sensitivities, vary by income and household size. Thus, a revenue-neutral ‘feebate’ policy – involving taxes on fuel-inefficient vehicles and rebates for fuel-efficient vehicles – could be more progressive than another gasoline price incre...

Discussion paper

A Mechanism for CCS in the Post-Paris Era

07 April 2019

A new CCS-specific technology mechanism is suggested as a means by wh... The authors argue that their proposed storage crediting scheme can complement and supplement carbon pricing, unlock new layers of climate finance for CCS, and overcome barriers historically faced by the technology.

KAPSARC journal article

Estimating the Impact of Energy Price Reform on Saudi Arabian Intergenerational Welfare using the MEGIR-SA Model

01 April 2019

In particular, the model analyzes how these price increases might affect the welfare of Saudis through a direct increase in ener... The analysis suggests that the increase in end-user energy prices results in a net overall favorable effect on the intertemporal welfare of all households.

Conference paper

Potential of Various Renewable Energy and its Introduction Policy in Southeast Asia

31 March 2019

Renewable energy has gained importance and is changing the face of energy business. Introduction of community-based off-grid renewable electricity in developing countries is desirable from the viewpoint of fostering inclusive growth. Southeast Asia provides an ideal ground for dem...

Discussion paper

Deepening Cooperation Between Saudi Arabia and China

27 March 2019

This paper also identifies five steps that could enhance the existing model of collaboration: defining a bridging strategy, building capacity, establishing a free trade agreement, encouraging a new partnership for financing, and building a joint research platform for energy collabora...

KAPSARC journal article

An Empirical Analysis of the Welfare Implications of the Direct Rebound Effect

27 March 2019

Improving the energy efficiency of an energy service, such as lighting, cooling, or driving, makes the service cheaper, normally leading consumers to demand more of it. This additional demand is known as the direct rebound effect.

Workshop brief

The Value of Integrating Saudi Arabia Into the Global Gas Market

19 March 2019

On average, northern hemisphere summer LNG prices can be $0.50 per million British thermal units...
Several countries neighboring Saudi Arabia have successfully imported LNG to optimize their fuel mixes. However, such diversification comes with both commercial and technical challenges.

Report

Abu Dhabi Electricity Sector - Features, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Integration

03 March 2019

The paper is part of a KAPSARC research project to develop insights that can facilitate the creation of a well-functioning integrated electricity market among members of the GCC and wider Middle East and North Africa region and to suggest potential enablers that could help to fill ex...

KAPSARC journal article

From Vertical to Horizontal Unbundling: A Downstream Electricity Reliability Insurance Model

01 March 2019

Discussion paper

Policy Pathways to Meet Saudi Arabia’s Contribution to the Paris Agreement

27 February 2019

A Full Fuel Price Reform wher...

The paper evaluates these alternative scenarios in terms of their practical implications on Saudi Arabia’s CO2 emissions, electricity production, fuel consumption, investments and cost-effectiveness, as well as on the Kingdom’s oil exports and revenues.

Workshop brief

Adaptive Strategies in the Low Carbon Energy Transition

25 February 2019

Although the industry will incur costs adapting to changing demand patterns, it could well benefit from the growth in demand for petrochemicals and the oppor...
Emissions reduction policy is a key pillar of trust between politicians and citizens, and between corporations and consumers.

Workshop brief

Integrated Approaches to Decentralized Electricity Transitions

20 February 2019

Testbeds for trialing new business models and electricity sector offerings can offer a reliable and safe way to help stakeholders in the Kingdom better understand the implications of current trends in the electricity industry. The findings can then help inform the development of a n...

Discussion paper

Households’ Demand Response to Changes in Electricity Prices: A Microeconomic-Physical Approach

14 February 2019

The study calibrates the physical component for a dwelling in Saudi Arabia. Domestic electricity tariffs in the – tiered – progressive pricing structure were partially raised in 2018. In addition to those increases, the response to other electricity pricing schemes is analyzed: time-...

Discussion paper

Estimating the Household Consumption Function in Saudi Arabia

05 February 2019

The authors’ estimation shows that both income and wealth have significant effects on household consumption in Saudi Arabia, with a long-run marginal pro... The sensitivity of consumption to income and wealth in Saudi Arabia appears to be consistent with the growth of the Saudi economy.

KAPSARC journal article

The Costs and Gains of Policy Options for Coordinating Electricity Generation in the Gulf Cooperation Council

03 February 2019

We investigate the economic impacts of policies for coordinating electricity production in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) through electricity trade. The GCC countries have installed a network of high-voltage transmission lines that links Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar...

Data Insight

Electricity Tariff Changes in Saudi Arabia 1974-2018

30 January 2019

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s households account for around 50% of national power consumption, with more than 7 million residential customers in 2017. The majority of this power is used for air conditioning and cooling systems due to the climate in the Kingdom, where the demand for e...

KAPSARC journal article

Sustainable development from millennium 2015 to Sustainable Development Goals 2030

22 January 2019

In modern economies, the advancement of well‐being of the citizens should be in an inclusive and sustainable way. In this respect, the sustainable welfare targets should exclusively include three main pillars: economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection. These pil...

Report

Estimating the Multiple Benefits of Building Energy Efficiency in GCC Countries Using an Energy Productivity Framework

14 January 2019

A deep energy efficiency retrofit has a payback period for investors of between 11 and 70 year...
This analysis provides a strong case for public energy efficiency programs, without which building owners are unlikely to invest in the socially optimal amount of energy efficiency.

KAPSARC journal article

Assessing the Effectiveness of California’s “Replace your Ride.”

04 January 2019

We analyze the effectiveness of California’s “Replace Your Ride” policy, a pilot program that gives subsidies to lower income households in the greater Los Angeles area to retire older vehicles and replace them with newer, cleaner vehicles.

KAPSARC journal article

Measuring the Cost-effectiveness of Electric Vehicles Subsidies

03 January 2019

Despite the prevalence of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) subsidies, research on improving their cost-effectiveness and impact remains limited. To assess the scope for improving their cost-effectiveness, we develop a vehicle choice model-based counterfactual simulation using a large-s...

Book/book chapter

Chapter 2 – Role of Economy and Income to Fall in Energy Poverty: Policy Act

01 January 2019

Fuel poverty is a complex and multi-scale issue, which relating the household-level to the country-level and the demand-side to the supply-side. The fuel poverty situation is shaped by various factors, including household social and economic conditi... Read Full Book Chapter Here

KAPSARC journal article

The Economic Impact of Price Controls on China’s Natural Gas Supply Chain

01 January 2019

Despite significant progress made by China in liberalizing its natural gas market, certain key areas such as market access and pricing mechanisms remain controlled by the government.

KAPSARC journal article

Measuring the Effects of Price Controls Using Mixed Complementarity Models

01 January 2019

KAPSARC journal article

Blind Spots in Energy Transition Policy: Case Studies From Germany and USA

01 January 2019

Energy transitions aim at economic prosperity through ‘green-collar’ job-creation, greater energy ‘independence’, and/or reduced emissions. These objectives imply creating policy-supported national renewable technology industries, ideally reducing clean energy costs to a point where ...

KAPSARC Quarterly

KAPSARC Quarterly Issue 8

31 December 2018

The research summaries in this issue are grouped into four themes: climate change; oil and gas; electricity; and Asia. Opening with an overview of KAPSARC’s most recent work on climate change, we also highlight our latest research on global oil and gas issues, electricity markets and...

Discussion paper

The Policymaking Process to Restart Japanese Nuclear Power Plants

31 December 2018

The Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) appears to be a credible and effective voice in building political acceptance of restarti...
Despite the turbulence in Japanese politics in 2017, the trend of slowly growing political will in favor of nuclear power appears to be largely unchanged.

Discussion paper

A Comparison of Alternative Programs for Climate Policies

30 December 2018

As an alternative, we evaluate a methodology that could fund investments to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and we show that the policy we consider to be optimal from a tax standpoint – Ramsey pricing can both improve world welfare and be politically more acceptable than ...

Workshop brief

International Oil and Gas Market Outlook

18 December 2018

Worldwide LNG supply and liquefaction capacity are growing. The expansion of global liquefaction&nbs...
Market coordination can help regional partners achieve energy transition goals by improving international connections through natural gas markets and regional electricity trade.

Discussion paper

India’s Balancing Act to Address Climate Change Under the Paris Agreement

12 December 2018

India tends to take a conservative appr...
The Prime Minister of India has the final say on climate policy matters, but consults with and is advised by a small number of actors in his Council on Climate Change. Think tanks play a major supporting role in climate policymaking.

Workshop brief

China's Policy Drivers of Future Energy Demand

10 December 2018

China’s evolving approach to international energy collaboration, from securing supplies towards a more comprehensive collaboration, will have an increasing impact on its domestic energy demand. The transfer of China’s industrial capacity and labor to Belt and Road Initiative countri...

KAPSARC journal article

Effect of Preferential Trade Agreements on China’s Energy Trade From Chinese and Exporters’ Perspectives

29 November 2018

China is a major energy import powerhouse, its trade deals have significant impact on international energy trade and global energy markets. The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of energy in China’s preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and their impact on Chinese imports o...

Discussion paper

Reorganizing Power Markets: A Reliability Insurance Business Model for Utilities

26 November 2018

In this paper, we propose a market mechanism that may ameliorate this potential distortion based on the creation of a market for risk. Utilities would provide reliability insurance services to households to protect them against the failure of their own DER systems. Creating...

Discussion paper

OPEC Oil Production Data: The Role of Secondary Sources

17 November 2018

Tanker tracking techniques using Automatic Identification System monitoring and satellite imagery are still in their infancy and do ...
Although much of the data secondary sources collate is unverifiable, there are currently no alternative sources or methodologies that are more robust.

Discussion paper

Assessing the Impact of Natural Gas on Natural Gas Liquids: Policy Challenges and Imperatives

15 November 2018

NGLs may present a silver lining to the future of natural gas, given their close links. The power sector is usually considered the principal driver of future demand growth. However, natural gas is likely to have a bigger role to play in future, given the essential role of NGLs i...

Data Insight

Oil and Oil-related Products Exported via Saudi Ports

01 November 2018

Saudi Arabia ranks as the world’s largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products; the oil and gas sector accounts for about 70 percent of export earnings. Ras Tanura and Yanbu are the major oil-exporting ports in Saudi Arabia, accounting for nearly 99 percent of total exports. ...

Discussion paper

The Challenges Facing India on its Road to a Gas-Based Economy

29 October 2018

Progress has been hampered by jurisdictional conflicts...
Gas pipelines are currently limited to regions where domestic gas production and LNG import terminals are located. Realizing the vision of a gas-based economy in India will require a clear roadmap and coherent planning approach.

Discussion paper

The Politics of European Union Climate Governance

25 October 2018

A struggle has emerged for leadership within the...
Despite some changes in governments, the national climate position of EU member states remains stable.
Poland, perhaps supported by other coal-dependent countries, is likely to remain an obstacle to more ambitious EU climate targets.

Book/book chapter

The Economics of Renewable Energy in the Gulf

17 October 2018

Ghada Abdulla, Hisham Akhonbay, Abdullah Al-Badi, Walid Ali, Odeh Al-Jayyousi, Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Maha Alsabbagh, Omar Al-Ubaydli, Moiz Bohra, Sylvain Cote, Nasreddine El-Dehaibi, Amro Elshurafa, Bassam Fattouh, Stephen Gitonga, Steve Griffiths, Marwan Khraisheh, Walid...

Data Insight

Saudi Arabia Population Pyramid

09 October 2018

Key insights into Saudi Arabia’s workforce demography.

Discussion paper

Assessment of the Political Feasibility of Developing a GCC Power Market

04 October 2018

Countries in the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, commonly known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), established a regional power grid to support member countries’ high voltage networks in 2001 but, to date, the system has remained underutilized. The ...

Data Insight

Saudi Arabia’s Passenger and Freight Railway Network

27 September 2018

We have launched a new series of Data Insights which aim to share topical insights and data on a range of interesting themes. The first insight of the series is focused on Saudi Arabia’s passenger and freight railway network.

Discussion paper

An Estimation of the Drivers Behind OPEC’s Quota Decisions

19 July 2018

This paper identifies key determinants that appear to shape OPEC’s quota strategy and implementation. Using econometric estimations, it examines the factors that seem to most influence members’ adherence to their production commitments in the short term and what drives the organizati...

Discussion paper

Policy Lessons From China’s CCS Experience

02 July 2018

China’s political leadership has taken an increasingly public and proactive stance on climate change since 2014. This includes a commitment that Chinese carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will peak before 2030 and enacting measures through the 13th Five-Year Plan to support energy effici...

KAPSARC Quarterly

KAPSARC Quarterly: Issue 7

01 July 2018

KAPSARC journal article

Energy productivity analysis framework for buildings: a case study of GCC region

01 July 2018

A new analysis framework is developed and applied to assess the benefits of building energy efficiency policies and programs. One of the main advantages of the new energy productivity analysis is that it accounts for both economic and energy performances of energy efficiency actions ...

Workshop brief

Fostering Joint Leadership on Energy Productivity Transitions in Saudi Arabia and China

01 July 2018

This workshop explored specific opportunities where the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and China can benefit from cooperation around efforts to improve industrial energy productivity. This is especially timely as both countries move into a closer phase of engagement under China’s Belt and R...

Workshop brief

Electricity Market Integration in the GCC and MENA: Imperatives and Challenges

01 July 2018

Rising electricity demand and growing fiscal constraints have encouraged governments in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions to consider more cooperative approaches to delivering reliable and affordable electricity services. The developme...

Discussion paper

The Costs and Gains of Coordinating Electricity Generation in the Gulf Cooperation Council Utilizing the Interconnector

10 June 2018

01 June 2018

Over the last decade, India and China have become leading consumers of energy, especially oil, with freight transportation accounting for a large portion. The growth in total transport energy use is directly correlated with the fast-paced urbanization and industrialization of these t...

KAPSARC journal article

Decoupling of CO2 emissions and GDP: A time-varying cointegration approach

01 June 2018

The relationship between CO2 emissions, the main gas responsible for global warming, and economic growth is among the most studied themes of environmental economics. Reducing overall emissions while keeping a high pace of economic development is at the heart of the sustainable develo...

Discussion paper

Vehicle Retirement and Replacement Policy: Assessing Impact and Cost-Effectiveness

24 May 2018

Governments across the world, motivated by air quality improvement or by climate change mitigation goals, are trying to accelerate the turnover of older, higher-emitting vehicles and replace these with lower emission vehicles. One approach is to encourage consumers to scrap their old...

Discussion paper

The Economic Impact of Price Controls on China’s Natural Gas Supply Chain

24 May 2018

Despite significant progress made by China in liberalizing its natural gas market, certain key areas such as market access and pricing mechanisms remain heavily monopolized or controlled by the government. To assess how such distortions impact the market, we developed a Mixed Complem...

Discussion paper

Identifying the Roadblocks for Energy Access: A Case Study for Eastern Africa’s Gas

20 May 2018

19 February 2018

In this report, we explore the main trends and policies that relate to industrial energy productivity in China and Saudi Arabia, focusing on energy efficiency, structural economic reform, industrial upgrading and energy pricing. Our objective is to increase shared understanding on th...

KAPSARC journal article

Correction to: Measuring persistent and transient energy efficiency in the US (Energy Efficiency, (2016), 9, 3, (663-675), 10.1007/s12053-015-9388-5)

01 February 2018

The article Measuring persistent and transient energy efficiency in the US, written by Massimo Filippini and Lester C. Hunt, was originally published Online First without open access. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Discussion paper

Enhanced Oil Recovery and CO2 Storage Potential Outside North America: An Economic Assessment

29 January 2018

Storing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in oil reservoirs as part of CO2 -based enhanced oil recovery (CO2 -EOR) can be a cost-effective solution to reduce emissions into the atmosphere. In this paper, we analyze the economics of this option in order to estimate the amount of CO2 that could be...

Book/book chapter

Policy Options for Reducing Water for Agriculture in Saudi Arabia

23 January 2018

As populations and economies grow, a megatrend that will increasingly affect both developed and emerging economies is the policy trade-off between managing water resources and achieving food security objectives. This poli... https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-10-6695-5_12

KAPSARC journal article

Voluntary disclosure, greenhouse gas emissions and business performance: Assessing the first decade of reporting

19 January 2018

24 November 2017

10 October 2017

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has said it wishes to transition toward a less carbon-intensive energy system, both as part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as one of a number of investments ...

Conference paper

Understanding demand for hybrid and electric vehicles using large-scale consumer profile data

09 October 2017

Consumer adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles is a crucial step in improving energy utilization and reducing emissions from the transportation sector. T... Link: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85050097941&partnerID=40&md5=fd6ac204cd44dcd69b41d1eca57ead78

Workshop brief

Transitioning to Liberalized Energy Markets

29 August 2017

Some countries have successfully navigated the transition to using a free market to provide energy more efficiently, while others are only just embarking on this journey. This transition is a lengthy, costly and complex process. Consequently, lessons learned from their experiences ca...

KAPSARC journal article

Global LNG market outlook and repercussions for Europe

16 August 2017

Discussion paper

Measuring the Capabilities of Firms to Deliver Local Content in Resource Rich Countries

13 August 2017

The term ‘Local Content Policy’ is a catch-all for ensuring that resource owners capture more value from developments than the fiscal revenues alone. KAPSARC has explained the benefits of a dynamic perspective when evaluating firms’ capabilities – their entrepreneurial capacity – and...

Workshop brief

Sheltering the Economies of Oil Exporting Countries From Energy Shocks

10 August 2017

16 April 2017

During periods of supply abundance that lead to lower prices, commodity exporters strive to secure their market share with major importing economies. This paper seeks to cast light on what drives an exporter’s share of Chinese imports of oil, gas and coal – and we find that the strat...

Discussion paper

Understanding Long Term Consumer Demand For Fuel Efficient Vehicles

16 April 2017

Consumer adoption of fuel-efficient vehicles is a crucial step in improving energy use and reducing emissions from the transportation sector. The range of options includes hybridization of powertrains all the way through to fully electric vehicles. To promote adoption, policymakers h...

Workshop brief

Future of the Electricity System in GCC Countries

10 April 2017

Global electricity markets are facing substantial changes from both the demand and supply side of the industry. These structural shifts are also affecting Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which need to adapt by developing new electricity models. Moving to a new power system ...

KAPSARC journal article

Efficient industrial energy use: The first step in transitioning Saudi Arabia’s energy mix

01 April 2017

In Saudi Arabia, industrial fuel prices are administered below international prices and firms make decisions based on low energy prices, increasing domestic energy demand. This analysis explores alternative policies designed to induce a transition to a more efficient energy system by...

KAPSARC journal article

Assessing the cost of renewable energy policy options – A Spanish wind case study

01 April 2017

This paper assesses the cost effectiveness of wind energy policy options by using a cost–benefit analysis approach. In comparison with other studies, the main contribution of this paper is the use of real financial and operational information of 318 wind projects in Spain between 200...

KAPSARC Quarterly

KAPSARC Quarterly: Issue 4

01 April 2017

Discussion paper

Joint Oil Stockpiling between Middle East Exporters and Northeast Asian Importers: A Winning Formula?

01 April 2017

When oil owned and commercially traded by an exporting country is stored in an importing country in exchange for first drawing rights by the host country in times of emergency, that process is known as ‘joint oil stockpiling’. It can thus be classified as both commercial and strategi...

Methodology paper

A Measurement Device for Estimating Local Firm Capabilities in New Oil Producing Countries: The Case of Uganda

01 April 2017

In this paper we present an overview of KAPSARC’s local content project, its methodological approach and objective. We describe a measurement device (questionnaire) used to quantify different features of local firms surveyed in Uganda. The data collected in these questionnaires provi...

A Conceptual Framework for Measuring Local Firm Capabilities in New Producing Countries: The Case of Uganda (1)

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